Obama's New Year's Resolution: The US Economy goes on a diet

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Dude - the difference between the gross debt and the public debt is the amount the government owes itself.

The numbers are meaningless without it.

And the chart is still wrong - as I said, we're already at 85%, not at 70% in 2010, as the chart claims.

I am just wondering where you and Big Dog are getting your numbers.

[mawilson 2,133]

Bill, do you know how much money that Bush spent on the financial bailouts via Hank Paulson? Do you know how much the Stimulus cost in comparison? Let's try not to be selective about the facts.

You can't justify bad behavior by pointing to other examples of bad behavior.

If Bush spent too much money, how is it right for Obama to spend too much money?

Bush was wrong and Obama was/is wrong.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

You and Glenn Beck.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

....

Blaming Obama is like blaming a fireman for the fire he came to put out. One thing that Right Winger such as Bill refuse to understand is that during a Recession, government spending needs to increase to stave off even higher numbers of unemployment and economic instability. You may not agree with that philosophy, but Obama's got Keynesian Economics along with a good number of prominent economists in his corner. As much as the Right wants to try and make this a war cry for 2010, the real numbers will be around 2012, when we we've had several quarters of economic growth.

Bill, do you know how much money that Bush spent on the financial bailouts via Hank Paulson? Do you know how much the Stimulus cost in comparison? Let's try not to be selective about the facts.

You can't justify bad behavior by pointing to other examples of bad behavior.

If Bush spent too much money, how is it right for Obama to spend too much money?

Bush was wrong and Obama was/is wrong.

Not according to Keynesian Economics.

[mawilson 2,133]

Dude - the difference between the gross debt and the public debt is the amount the government owes itself.

The numbers are meaningless without it.

And the chart is still wrong - as I said, we're already at 85%, not at 70% in 2010, as the chart claims.

I am just wondering where you and Big Dog are getting your numbers.

US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis:

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/g...gdp3q09_adv.pdf

See Table 3. Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period

GDP estimate (3rd quarter in current dollars): $14,301.5 billion

US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Public Debt:

The Debt to the Penny and Who Holds It

Current: 11/12/2009

Debt Held by the Public: 7,594,009,912,460.87

Intragovernmental Holdings : 4,397,209,623,436.99

Total Public Debt Outstanding: 11,991,219,535,897.86

Do the math:

11,991,219,535,897.86 / $14,301,500,000,000.00 = 83.84%

[mawilson 2,133]

during a Recession, government spending needs to increase to stave off even higher numbers of unemployment and economic instability.

Massive government spending will ultimately result in more job losses and economic instability,

as it inevitably crowds out private spending.

I don't want to debate this point with you - time will tell who was right. At the moment,

the government is spending the money it doesn't have, borrowing unprecedented amounts

and weakening our currency.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Dude - the difference between the gross debt and the public debt is the amount the government owes itself.

The numbers are meaningless without it.

And the chart is still wrong - as I said, we're already at 85%, not at 70% in 2010, as the chart claims.

I am just wondering where you and Big Dog are getting your numbers.

US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis:

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/g...gdp3q09_adv.pdf

See Table 3. Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period

GDP estimate (3rd quarter in current dollars): $14,301.5 billion

US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Public Debt:

The Debt to the Penny and Who Holds It

Current: 11/12/2009

Debt Held by the Public: 7,594,009,912,460.87

Intragovernmental Holdings : 4,397,209,623,436.99

Total Public Debt Outstanding: 11,991,219,535,897.86

Do the math:

11,991,219,535,897.86 / $14,301,500,000,000.00 = 83.84%

Close enough, and getting closer. But you really need to compare 9/30 numbers with 9/30 numbers. And, the revised third quarter numbers won't be released for GDP until sometime in February, so there is some lack of confidence in the numbers that often get revised up or down 1 to 2 full percentage points.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

zFacts.com? Talk about massaging a graph!

The red line is the line to look at, unless you still believe there is actually anything but I.O.U.'s in the various trust funds.

Edited November 14, 2009 by Lone Ranger

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

GDP estimate (3rd quarter in current dollars): $14,301.5 billion

US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Public Debt:

The Debt to the Penny and Who Holds It

Current: 11/12/2009

Debt Held by the Public: 7,594,009,912,460.87

Intragovernmental Holdings : 4,397,209,623,436.99

Total Public Debt Outstanding: 11,991,219,535,897.86

Do the math:

11,991,219,535,897.86 / $14,301,500,000,000.00 = 83.84%

That's the math.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

GDP estimate (3rd quarter in current dollars): $14,301.5 billion

US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Public Debt:

The Debt to the Penny and Who Holds It

Current: 11/12/2009

Debt Held by the Public: 7,594,009,912,460.87

Intragovernmental Holdings : 4,397,209,623,436.99

Total Public Debt Outstanding: 11,991,219,535,897.86

Do the math:

11,991,219,535,897.86 / $14,301,500,000,000.00 = 83.84%

That's the math.

Except the math is incorrect, unless you think the government is really going to redeem all those notes in the trust funds. The real number is closer to 7.5/14.3 or 52% for public debt as a percentage of GDP.

The administration can't, (or won't,) do anything about entitlements, which is most of the debt the government owes itself. In other words, revenue already spent on something other than the purpose for which the money was raised. You don't need to worry about stealing money from Social Security beneficiaries as of next year, because the fund will begin paying more money out than is being taken in, as will Medicare around 2018. Those red and black lines will begin to merge within the next decade, unless Congress creates another entitlement, and a "trust fund" to finance it.

Oh wait! That is exactly what they are trying to do!

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

GDP estimate (3rd quarter in current dollars): $14,301.5 billion

US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Public Debt:

The Debt to the Penny and Who Holds It

Current: 11/12/2009

Debt Held by the Public: 7,594,009,912,460.87

Intragovernmental Holdings : 4,397,209,623,436.99

Total Public Debt Outstanding: 11,991,219,535,897.86

Do the math:

11,991,219,535,897.86 / $14,301,500,000,000.00 = 83.84%

That's the math.

Except the math is incorrect.

It isn't if we're talking about unfunded spending - i.e. fiscal irresponsibility.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

GDP estimate (3rd quarter in current dollars): $14,301.5 billion

US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Public Debt:

The Debt to the Penny and Who Holds It

Current: 11/12/2009

Debt Held by the Public: 7,594,009,912,460.87

Intragovernmental Holdings : 4,397,209,623,436.99

Total Public Debt Outstanding: 11,991,219,535,897.86

Do the math:

11,991,219,535,897.86 / $14,301,500,000,000.00 = 83.84%

That's the math.

Except the math is incorrect.

It isn't if we're talking about unfunded spending - i.e. fiscal irresponsibility.

Well, then you better find a new number:

The 2009 Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports show the combined unfunded liability of these two programs has reached nearly $107 trillion in today's dollars! That is about seven times the size of the U.S. economy and 10 times the size of the outstanding national debt.

http://www.ncpa.org/pub/ba662

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Bill, why do you hate Keynesian Economics when your parents and grandparents most likely have benefited from both FDR's and LBJ's policies?

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

GDP estimate (3rd quarter in current dollars): $14,301.5 billion

US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Public Debt:

The Debt to the Penny and Who Holds It

Current: 11/12/2009

Debt Held by the Public: 7,594,009,912,460.87

Intragovernmental Holdings : 4,397,209,623,436.99

Total Public Debt Outstanding: 11,991,219,535,897.86

Do the math:

11,991,219,535,897.86 / $14,301,500,000,000.00 = 83.84%

That's the math.

Except the math is incorrect.

It isn't if we're talking about unfunded spending - i.e. fiscal irresponsibility.

Well, then you better find a new number:

The 2009 Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports show the combined unfunded liability of these two programs has reached nearly $107 trillion in today's dollars! That is about seven times the size of the U.S. economy and 10 times the size of the outstanding national debt.

http://www.ncpa.org/pub/ba662

107 trillion dollars over 70 years = 1.5 trillion / year which is 10% of the GDP today. Seeing the historic GDP growth rates, the GDP would be somewhere at 85 trillion at the end of the projection period - and that's a very low estimate at 25% growth every 8 years. For comparison, the GDP grew over 40% over the past 8 years. If we were to take that as the assumption, the GDP in 2080 would be 210 trillion. This is just to put the very large numbers into perspective.

That said, these numbers are precisely the reason that we need to address the out of control growth of health care cost. Doing nothing leaves this unfunded liability where it is today. And that is what the "fiscally responsible" Republicans along with the "fiscally conservative" Blue Dog Democrats are advocating today. I fail to see the fiscal responsibility in this, however.

[mawilson 2,133]

Close enough, and getting closer. But you really need to compare 9/30 numbers with 9/30 numbers.

What's a 9/30 number?