BBC: What happened to global warming?

[Danno 1,228]

Think about it, the best and brightest minds in the world nearly all fooled by the concept of Global warming.

So certain were they about the theory of GW.... that it was spoken of as fact, no longer theory.

People right here on YJ believed or perhaps still believe with all their heart and soul but the truth is.... it's all crumbling.

But just as the Masses did not all jump "on" the bandwagon at once, neither will they abandon it, all at once.

NOw that we are in the "discrediting phase", I want to know if anyone who was duped... feels betrayed?

Not yet?... well it's possible you never will either.... and I will tell you why.

When one truly believes something that turns out to be flat-out wrong, it is a natural reflex to "divert" rather than "turn around".

It's kinda like people in quirky religions whose church predicts the "End of the world"... and when that day passes with no such event, do the faithful all quit, the church?

A: No, rather the leaders scratch their heads, come up with a palatable reason how they "miscalculated"... they set a new time-line and regain the confidence of their followers again.

At's what's next

---------------------------------

BBC NEWS

What happened to global warming?

By Paul Hudson

Climate correspondent, BBC News

This headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact that the warmest year recorded globally was not in 2008 or 2007, but in 1998.

But it is true. For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures.

And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise.

So what on Earth is going on?

Climate change sceptics, who passionately and consistently argue that man's influence on our climate is overstated, say they saw it coming.

They argue that there are natural cycles, over which we have no control, that dictate how warm the planet is. But what is the evidence for this?

During the last few decades of the 20th Century, our planet did warm quickly.

Sceptics argue that the warming we observed was down to the energy from the Sun increasing. After all 98% of the Earth's warmth comes from the Sun.

But research conducted two years ago, and published by the Royal Society, seemed to rule out solar influences.

The scientists' main approach was simple: to look at solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the last 30-40 years, and compare those trends with the graph for global average surface temperature.

And the results were clear. "Warming in the last 20 to 40 years can't have been caused by solar activity," said Dr Piers Forster from Leeds University, a leading contributor to this year's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

But one solar scientist Piers Corbyn from Weatheraction, a company specialising in long range weather forecasting, disagrees.

He claims that solar charged particles impact us far more than is currently accepted, so much so he says that they are almost entirely responsible for what happens to global temperatures.

He is so excited by what he has discovered that he plans to tell the international scientific community at a conference in London at the end of the month.

If proved correct, this could revolutionise the whole subject.

Ocean cycles

What is really interesting at the moment is what is happening to our oceans. They are the Earth's great heat stores.

“ In the last few years [the Pacific Ocean] has been losing its warmth and has recently started to cool down ”

According to research conducted by Professor Don Easterbrook from Western Washington University last November, the oceans and global temperatures are correlated.

The oceans, he says, have a cycle in which they warm and cool cyclically. The most important one is the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).

For much of the 1980s and 1990s, it was in a positive cycle, that means warmer than average. And observations have revealed that global temperatures were warm too.

But in the last few years it has been losing its warmth and has recently started to cool down.

These cycles in the past have lasted for nearly 30 years.

So could global temperatures follow? The global cooling from 1945 to 1977 coincided with one of these cold Pacific cycles.

Professor Easterbrook says: "The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling."

So what does it all mean? Climate change sceptics argue that this is evidence that they have been right all along.

They say there are so many other natural causes for warming and cooling, that even if man is warming the planet, it is a small part compared with nature.

But those scientists who are equally passionate about man's influence on global warming argue that their science is solid.

The UK Met Office's Hadley Centre, responsible for future climate predictions, says it incorporates solar variation and ocean cycles into its climate models, and that they are nothing new.

In fact, the centre says they are just two of the whole host of known factors that influence global temperatures - all of which are accounted for by its models.

In addition, say Met Office scientists, temperatures have never increased in a straight line, and there will always be periods of slower warming, or even temporary cooling.

What is crucial, they say, is the long-term trend in global temperatures. And that, according to the Met office data, is clearly up.

To confuse the issue even further, last month Mojib Latif, a member of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) says that we may indeed be in a period of cooling worldwide temperatures that could last another 10-20 years.

Professor Latif is based at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University in Germany and is one of the world's top climate modellers.

But he makes it clear that he has not become a sceptic; he believes that this cooling will be temporary, before the overwhelming force of man-made global warming reasserts itself.

So what can we expect in the next few years?

Both sides have very different forecasts. The Met Office says that warming is set to resume quickly and strongly.

It predicts that from 2010 to 2015 at least half the years will be hotter than the current hottest year on record (1998).

Sceptics disagree. They insist it is unlikely that temperatures will reach the dizzy heights of 1998 until 2030 at the earliest. It is possible, they say, that because of ocean and solar cycles a period of global cooling is more likely.

One thing is for sure. It seems the debate about what is causing global warming is far from over. Indeed some would say it is hotting up.

Story from BBC NEWS:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/scie...ure/8299079.stm

[BishopMnA 0]

Quirky religions can be invaluable...leads to real religion. The question is imperative...

Simultaneously...I'm not a big believer in Global Warming (apologies to scientists...I'm not educated enough to model this)...but the jist <is jist a real word?> is that we should care for the creator's creation. Intuitively, as humans, we know this...

I mean...call it WHUT you want...carbon footprint...or curbside recycling...we should all care...this is not political.

Peace - MK

[NickD 203]

The real problem is that we are consuming carbon based fuels at an alarming faster rate than the earth can replenish these fuels that took millions of years to form. Global warming is just a poor and highly inaccurate reason to justify conserving these carbon based fuels. But these carbon based fuels must be conserved regardless of the reason.

[BishopMnA 0]

The real problem is that we are consuming carbon based fuels at an alarming faster rate than the earth can replenish these fuels that took millions of years to form. Global warming is just a poor and highly inaccurate reason to justify conserving these carbon based fuels. But these carbon based fuels must be conserved regardless of the reason.

Agreed. Not to impune your honest statement, but this, as stated, is simple. Intuitively, we know this...

[Danno 1,228]

Quirky religions can be invaluable...leads to real religion. The question is imperative...

Simultaneously...I'm not a big believer in Global Warming (apologies to scientists...I'm not educated enough to model this)...but the jist <is jist a real word?> is that we should care for the creator's creation. Intuitively, as humans, we know this...

I mean...call it WHUT you want...carbon footprint...or curbside recycling...we should all care...this is not political.

Peace - MK

Oh I agree, "reasonable" people will do those things to safeguard the natural resources and natural areas we have.

Of course I suspect this whole GW thing (at the top) was never about the environment as much as it was...

THE MONEY.

[Joseph & Ana 0]

It isn't alarming. There are new oil discoveries all the time. When its all gone, then we use something else. We'll have no choice.

People need to grow a brain. We've had consistently cooler temperatures since 1998.

[Christi and Ian 24]

That's very interesting, and corroborates a story I heard a few months ago stating that the North Pole has been experiencing the most growth of the ice pack since they have been recording it - keeping in mind that they could only really accurately record how much of an ice sheet is present at the North Pole since satellites have been available - ie: less than 40 years.

[_Simpson_ 250]

The real problem is that we are consuming carbon based fuels at an alarming faster rate than the earth can replenish these fuels that took millions of years to form. Global warming is just a poor and highly inaccurate reason to justify conserving these carbon based fuels. But these carbon based fuels must be conserved regardless of the reason.

Disagree, the real problem is the exaggeration of this issue. Sure, recycle, be good and all that warm fuzzy feel good about yourself stuff but natural resources are plentiful as of now and the way and direction technology is going I truly believe we have nothing to worry about, tech is on a track to out pace global warming fears, so can we please quit putting a strangle hold on productivity in the name of that feel good nonsense about global warming.

Edited October 11, 2009 by _Simpson_

[Danno 1,228]

Actually, the truth is we will never run out of oil due to the peanut theory.

The Peanut theory goes like this: your friend knows you love peanuts and so he gives you a whole room in your house filled with them.... the only catch is, you can't take any shells out of the room.

At first you would swim right in to the room of peanuts and eat your fill every day, this could go on for months or years.

At some point there would be as many SHELLS are there were peanuts but no problem with minimal effort you can always find enough peanuts.

Of course at some point it would take more and more effort and then eventually it becomes easier to just buy a bag of peanuts rather than spend time digging for them.

And so it will be with oil, when the effort and cost get too great, we will find another energy source.

Fact is... Obama and his kind know this and that is why they are only too happy to raise taxes... by one means or another to drive that price up.

This does two things for them 1. puts more money in the public trough (to buy more votes with) and 2. motivates people off oil.... which they see as "Gods calling" in their life.

So no... we will never run out of oil.

[Hilarious Clinton 452]

It's the Sun. You narrow minded drones.

[Ban Hammer 13,352]

It's the Sun. You narrow minded drones.

nonsense. if it was the fault of the sun, the left would tax it. oh wait, can't do that, can they?

[Pooky 3,792]

It's The Sun. You narrow minded drones.

Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?

Look, I knew those Page 3 girls were supposed to be hot, but I never guessed they were so hot as to bring about Global Warming!!!!!

[Christi and Ian 24]

It's The Sun. You narrow minded drones.

Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?

Look, I knew those Page 3 girls were supposed to be hot, but I never guessed they were so hot as to bring about Global Warming!!!!!

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!

[웃 910]

It was a freezing ice cold 36 degrees when I woke up this morning at 9am here in Detroit, MI. The record low was 28.....the average low is 46 (today's high will be 51)!!

Edited October 11, 2009 by Confucian

[Danno 1,228]

It was a freezing ice cold 36 degrees when I woke up this morning at 9am here in Detroit, MI. The record low was 28.....the average low is 46 (today's high will be 51)!!

Yeah but you must ignore what you see before your eyes as it is meaningless.

Just as the Disciples of GWarming.