Optimism in Syria : "We are closing the noose on Israel. This may be the last battle, and we may be able to redraw the map of the Middle East"

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

What do you suppose Hezbollah stood to gain from kidnapping the soldiers? Why now? I'm not asking rhetorically - I'm honestly trying to understand what is behind their motives. The reason I've heard is that they just want to chaos but that doesn't really make sense.

The leader of Hizballah (Nasrallah?) has been making some mysterious statements since the onset of hostilities indicating he believes Hizballah now has some weapon it did not have before, that changes the balance of power vis a vis Israel... we will see.

[Trumplestiltskin 5,791]

With respect to Israel, I'm a bit torn on recent events. Given the Bush doctrine of international military action, it is nearly impossible to say that Israel is out of bounds. As has already been pointed out at least this action isn't entirely pre-emptive. Hezbollah did act against them, in what could be constued as an act of war. I also think that they see it as a good justification for doing what they have wanted to do for some time.

Not only that, but it really seems that there is more to it than that. Not only is Israel justifed, but Hezbollah has given them the green light on a well known goal of theirs to take some action to eraticate Hezbollah once and for all. If it wasn't for the fact that Hezbollah has already admitted to kidnapping the soldiers, it wouldn't suprise me if Israel staged the kidnapping themselves. They've been looking for an excuse to go after Hezbollah, and Hezbollah gave them an early Hannukah gift. If it looks like this is about more than the release of a couple soldiers, that's becuase it is. Don't expect Israel to back off of this at all until Hezbollah is gone completely. That probably goes for Hamas too.

I very much doubt Israel staged the kidnapping themselves, on the other hand - I don't doubt they are using this situation to their best advantage, as the US did with Iraq and 9/11.

Ultimately its the Lebanese government and civilians who will pay the price for this - Hezbollah is a rogue organisation that operates largely autonomously from the Lebanese government. They are armed, funded and controlled by Iran and Syria. Israel's response, as with Hamas is to bomb the civilian infrastructure (roads, airports, power stations etc) to put pressure on the Lebanese government to deal with Hezbollah, which as I see it, accepted an uneasy peace rather than face a continuation of the war that had previously gutted that country.

Essentially - Syria gives the orders, Iran supplies the weapons, Hezbollah executes, Israel retaliates and Lebanon pays the price.

Between a rock and a hard place, I'd say...

What do you suppose Hezbollah stood to gain from kidnapping the soldiers? Why now? I'm not asking rhetorically - I'm honestly trying to understand what is behind their motives. The reason I've heard is that they just want to chaos but that doesn't really make sense.

Why? In all likelihood they were told to do it - as a means of widening the current Israel/Palestine situation. Hezbollah is essentially a private army that is largely in the pocket of Iran and Syria, armed and funded for the sole purpose of militarising the border with Israel - as a base for incursions into their territory. The Lebanese government, don't have much of a say in it. With the current situation in the middle-east - Iraq/Afghanistan and current rumbles of possible action against Iran - some people want to widen the conflict into a full scale war that will not only remove Israel but will drastically reduce the US' influence in the region.

Increasing instability in the middle east will make it more likely that there will be all out civil war in Iraq for instance. Whole place will go up in smoke. That's why I say, in all seriousness, that this has all the makings of a new world war.

Edited July 17, 2006 by erekose

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Maybe this is just typical fog-of-war bullcrap, maybe it's not.

He added that his combatants were eager to fight, and vowed to surprise Israel on land, "just like we surprised you at sea."

A pale Nasrallah said in a speech aired on his Al-Manar TV that Hezbollah cambatants were at their "full strength" and that the group had "no choice" but to hit the northern Israeli city of Haifa with rockets Sunday after Israel struck civilians in Lebanon.

"As long as the enemy acts without limitations, it is our right to act similarly," he said.

"Israel doesn't know our capabilities on every level," Nasrallah said. "The Zionist enemy has not succeeded in infiltrating our group," he added.

"If Israel thinks that our missiles cannot reach beyond Haifa and Tiberias, then it is wrong. If you think Hizbullah cannot stand firm in this confrontation, then your government and army are deceiving you," he told the Israeli citizens.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3276791,00.html

... a full scale war that will not only remove Israel...

The only way to 'remove' Israel is a nuclear strike.

[Trumplestiltskin 5,791]

The only way to 'remove' Israel is a nuclear strike.

Not neccessarily, a major conflict could have the effect of pushing back Israel's borders - that would, as I said, require a significant escalation.

[dalegg 143]

I very much doubt Israel staged the kidnapping themselves, on the other hand - I don't doubt they are using this situation to their best advantage, as the US did with Iraq and 9/11.

I didn't mean to suggest that I actually believed they did either, just that it was such a perfect opportunity for them.

Essentially - Syria gives the orders, Iran supplies the weapons, Hezbollah executes, Israel retaliates and Lebanon pays the price.

Between a rock and a hard place, I'd say...

What do you suppose Hezbollah stood to gain from kidnapping the soldiers? Why now? I'm not asking rhetorically - I'm honestly trying to understand what is behind their motives. The reason I've heard is that they just want to chaos but that doesn't really make sense.

Why? In all likelihood they were told to do it - as a means of widening the current Israel/Palestine situation. Hezbollah is essentially a private army that is largely in the pocket of Iran and Syria, armed and funded for the sole purpose of militarising the border with Israel - as a base for incursions into their territory.

This answer makes it even more puzzling to me. Why in the world would Iran want an all out war with Israel now? We suspect they haven't actually developed a nuclear bomb yet and confrontation with Israel could give Israel the excuse the U.S. doesn't have for military action against any suspected nuclear sites.

Edited July 17, 2006 by dalegg

[46]

What do you suppose Hezbollah stood to gain from kidnapping the soldiers? Why now? I'm not asking rhetorically - I'm honestly trying to understand what is behind their motives. The reason I've heard is that they just want to chaos but that doesn't really make sense.

I assume they attacked because Hamas did so and got a conflict. These terrorist movements depend on violence. If things are quiet, their support from Iran, Syria, and the Palestinian refugees disappears. Death is their business.

[Trumplestiltskin 5,791]

This answer makes it even more puzzling to me. Why in the world would Iran want an all out war with Israel now? We suspect they haven't actually developed a nuclear bomb yet and confrontation with Israel could give Israel the excuse the U.S. doesn't have for military action against any suspected nuclear sites.

Because for one thing it takes the pressure off them, their nuclear development programme (and any possibility of another US-led pre-emptive invasion). Secondly, the US is still dealing with a significant resistance in Iraq, and a fledgling government which still isn't completely autonomous or capable of managing the country on its own. Essentially, it would mean fighting a war on multiple fronts - not a particularly desirable prospect, even if you have the military resources that the US enjoys.

In any case Iran isn't (currently) entering into a direct war with Israel- they're funding the likes of Hezbollah to do the job for them.

Edited July 17, 2006 by erekose

[Ban Hammer 13,352]

This answer makes it even more puzzling to me. Why in the world would Iran want an all out war with Israel now? We suspect they haven't actually developed a nuclear bomb yet and confrontation with Israel could give Israel the excuse the U.S. doesn't have for military action against any suspected nuclear sites.

get something started with israel to take the heat off of iran about their nuclear reactors

[dalegg 143]

This answer makes it even more puzzling to me. Why in the world would Iran want an all out war with Israel now? We suspect they haven't actually developed a nuclear bomb yet and confrontation with Israel could give Israel the excuse the U.S. doesn't have for military action against any suspected nuclear sites.

get something started with israel to take the heat off of iran about their nuclear reactors

Doesn't seem like that's working. I've heard the word Iran in the last few days at least as many times as I've heard the word Hezbollah.

[Luvinmybaby 0]

Doesn't seem like that's working. I've heard the word Iran in the last few days at least as many times as I've heard the word Hezbollah.

I think Iran has underestimated Israel's resolve to survive. It seems that Iran is hoping that by instigating this conflict that the rest of the Arab world will come to Hezbollah's aid and gang up in Israel. Looks like that isn't happening. The end result will be a massive strike on Iran by Israel (possibly nuclear if it gets bad enough) and then the sh!t will really hit the fan.

[Risto 0]

How many thousands of Arabs are sitting in Israeli prisons? How many innocent Palestinians have been killed by Israeli's over the years? The Israelis are violating UN provisions by occupying Gaza and no one gives a damn. Maybe if we looked at the root and the cause of terrorism it wouldn't be such an issue. You honestly dont' believe that the "terrorists" woke up one day and decided to be "terrorists" there are causes, whether we see them or choose not to. All I ask is that those so hot to judge and condemn these people try to understand both sides first, instead of ingesting the "terrorists are going to kill us all blather" that is so prevelant today.

- I'm not saying the people killed in Haifa don't count - but there is a LARGE discrepency in numbers. The American media wants to throw all over the covers and headlines that 2 or 3 were killed in Haifa

Why you are so surprised? There were more casualty in Japan and Germany during WWII. That’s the way should be. They started the war

[MrsAmera 41]

The Lebanese people did not start the war - they are bearing the brunt of the casualties. Israel has been blasting Lebanon and supposed "Hezbollah" targets but how much damage has actually been done to Hezbollah - not a whole lot. How many neighborhoods have been ruined - a bunch. It's just so much easier for everyone to group them all together (i.e. Lebanese, Hezbollah, Al Qaeda) and honestly no one here (US) seems to give a damn about the Arab people anyway.... Funny how it's ok to hate Arabs, be rascists etc. but we're all concerned about being PC when it comes to Blacks or Hispanics....

[munchkins 0]

QUOTE What do you suppose Hezbollah stood to gain from kidnapping the soldiers? Why now? I'm not asking rhetorically - I'm honestly trying to understand what is behind their motives. The reason I've heard is that they just want to chaos but that doesn't really make sense.

The G8 summit has been held this weekend and it may or may not be , who knows, that what has happened has been orchestrated by Iran (and Syria) to let the west know that it does not give a damn what we think and that it will not stop its nuclear programme. This has also taken the "heat" from Iran over its nuclear programme for a time

The split within the G 8 over this conflict and who should be "blamed" is there for all to see, seems we have got a gutless band of world leaders. They should be demanding a ceasefire from all parties

Edited July 17, 2006 by munchkins

[dalegg 143]

The Lebanese people did not start the war - they are bearing the brunt of the casualties. Israel has been blasting Lebanon and supposed "Hezbollah" targets but how much damage has actually been done to Hezbollah - not a whole lot. How many neighborhoods have been ruined - a bunch.

This is certainly true, but there is no evidence that it is the aim of Israel to cause innocent deaths. In fact, they've dropped leaflets urging people to leave the area. You've got to remember that it can only be a top priority for a nation to minimize the civilian casualties of their enemy nation when that nation poses no threat to their own civilians (of course you could argue whether or not they should even attack in that case at all, but that's another 200 topics). In this case Israel is dealing with an immediate threat to it's own population and that of course is it's number 1 priority.

The fact that there have been more Lebanese civilians killed than Israelis is due to nothing more than superior weopons, better preparation by Israeli citizens to deal with attacks, and even a bit of good luck. You don't think that Hezbollah has no intentions of causing large amounts of deaths when they send their unguided rockets blindly into Israeli cities do you?

[mercuryroad 0]

The Lebanese people did not start the war - they are bearing the brunt of the casualties. Israel has been blasting Lebanon and supposed "Hezbollah" targets but how much damage has actually been done to Hezbollah - not a whole lot. How many neighborhoods have been ruined - a bunch. It's just so much easier for everyone to group them all together (i.e. Lebanese, Hezbollah, Al Qaeda) and honestly no one here (US) seems to give a damn about the Arab people anyway.... Funny how it's ok to hate Arabs, be rascists etc. but we're all concerned about being PC when it comes to Blacks or Hispanics....

That's a one-sided claim that is way out of bounds, not to mention baseless.