HCMC: CR1 interview-->blue slip-->AP-->PINK slip.

[lindal24 1]

When binh was there there were many people that got pink, and when I came back and we were at the consulate I saw many pink as well as many blue. I would say that day it was about 50/50 on pink or blue, but that was only one day, not a week, or not a month, so for me to tell everyone that it is 50/50 chance to get a visa would be false. I like true facts, not " my friend said that bla bla bla" in any case, we need the input and the constructive help not just the bad stories or mis information.

Jerome

TECHNICALLY...there is a 50/50 chance that EVERYONE gets either a blue or a pink.

I haven't seen of any other colors coming out, but I've heard of white and green...now if that's the case and there are in fact 4 different color slips with 4 different results, then there's a 1/4 or 25% chance that you'll get a pink (success) or a blue (delay) or white (unknown) or green (unknown).

Now the percentages of people coming out with pink or blue on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis is a different case.

...just stating the obvious.

That would be true if this were a game of roulette. In reality, statistics are everything in this game. It's distinctly possible for everyone to get pink, or for everyone to get blue. If the odds were based purely on random chance, then the odds against only one color coming out of the consulate would be astronomical, just like the odds of the same number coming up repeatedly on a roulette wheel.

Frankly, we don't know what the odds are based on, nor do we know precisely what the statistics are. Does the consulate operate on a quota system, presuming that a certain percentage of the applications are going to be fraudulent? We simply don't know. If they did, it would explain why someone with a relatively weak case gets approved one day, while someone with a relatively strong case gets denied on a different day. This could also be explained by different CO's with radically standards of judgment.

If we knew, for example, that the percentage of pinks were 15%, then we could say that in general your chances of getting pink were 15%. In reality, even this would not be true, since it's a safe presumption that some of the 85% who aren't approved were inadequately prepared, or had monumental red flags to overcome. Someone who used the guidance found on VJ to prepare themselves and adequately address their red flags could be presumed to have a much better chance of ending up in that 15% category than would a "noob" who had no clue what they were doing.

...your example is THE IS THE ODDS OF SOMEONE WALKING OUT WITH A PINK/BLUE/GREEN/WHITE. The percentages of this is highly incorrect because as you stated in your post the determination of the color is based on a number of items including how the CO feels that day, how prepared the interviewee is, etc. (Think Lottery...you don't know how many people play each day so the odds change)

THIS IS EACH PERSON'S ODDS GOING IN...Simply put...Everyone has the same percentage of getting either a pink/blue/green/white slip though as those are the only colors available.

For example: What are the odds that a person get a pink slip as opposed to a blue/green/white slip? 25%

Reasoning: Because there are only 4 color slips, and of those 4 colors, you only get one of the 4. (Think Coin Toss...there's only 2 possibilities--heads or tails)

So...everyone has a 25% chance of getting pink...if there are 4 colors. 50% if there are only 2 colors...

STAY POSITIVE...THINK PINK!

Edited September 24, 2009 by lindal24

[JimVaPhuong 4,863]

When binh was there there were many people that got pink, and when I came back and we were at the consulate I saw many pink as well as many blue. I would say that day it was about 50/50 on pink or blue, but that was only one day, not a week, or not a month, so for me to tell everyone that it is 50/50 chance to get a visa would be false. I like true facts, not " my friend said that bla bla bla" in any case, we need the input and the constructive help not just the bad stories or mis information.

Jerome

TECHNICALLY...there is a 50/50 chance that EVERYONE gets either a blue or a pink.

I haven't seen of any other colors coming out, but I've heard of white and green...now if that's the case and there are in fact 4 different color slips with 4 different results, then there's a 1/4 or 25% chance that you'll get a pink (success) or a blue (delay) or white (unknown) or green (unknown).

Now the percentages of people coming out with pink or blue on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis is a different case.

...just stating the obvious.

That would be true if this were a game of roulette. In reality, statistics are everything in this game. It's distinctly possible for everyone to get pink, or for everyone to get blue. If the odds were based purely on random chance, then the odds against only one color coming out of the consulate would be astronomical, just like the odds of the same number coming up repeatedly on a roulette wheel.

Frankly, we don't know what the odds are based on, nor do we know precisely what the statistics are. Does the consulate operate on a quota system, presuming that a certain percentage of the applications are going to be fraudulent? We simply don't know. If they did, it would explain why someone with a relatively weak case gets approved one day, while someone with a relatively strong case gets denied on a different day. This could also be explained by different CO's with radically standards of judgment.

If we knew, for example, that the percentage of pinks were 15%, then we could say that in general your chances of getting pink were 15%. In reality, even this would not be true, since it's a safe presumption that some of the 85% who aren't approved were inadequately prepared, or had monumental red flags to overcome. Someone who used the guidance found on VJ to prepare themselves and adequately address their red flags could be presumed to have a much better chance of ending up in that 15% category than would a "noob" who had no clue what they were doing.

...your example is THE IS THE ODDS OF SOMEONE WALKING OUT WITH A PINK/BLUE/GREEN/WHITE. The percentages of this is highly incorrect because as you stated in your post the determination of the color is based on a number of items including how the CO feels that day, how prepared the interviewee is, etc. (Think Lottery...you don't know how many people play each day so the odds change)

THIS IS EACH PERSON'S ODDS GOING IN...Simply put...Everyone has the same percentage of getting either a pink/blue/green/white slip though as those are the only colors available.

For example: What are the odds that a person get a pink slip as opposed to a blue/green/white slip? 25%

Reasoning: Because there are only 4 color slips, and of those 4 colors, you only get one of the 4. (Think Coin Toss...there's only 2 possibilities--heads or tails)

So...everyone has a 25% chance of getting pink...if there are 4 colors. 50% if there are only 2 colors...

STAY POSITIVE...THINK PINK!

Wow! You would have FUN in a statistics class!

The odds of someone winning the lottery are exactly the same, regardless of how many people play. They don't randomly pull a specific ticket's number combination from a hat. They randomly pick the number combination itself. For the biggies like Powerball and MegaMillions, they use a bingo machine filled with numbered balls. The odds of that number combination matching the number combination you selected are based on the number of different combinations that are possible. The number of possible combinations is exactly the same with every "draw". They have nothing to do with how many people played the game.

Getting a visa does not work like the lottery. They don't randomly choose which color slip you get from a finite number of available colors. Instead, a consular officer weighs a large number of factors to make a determination. These factors vary dramatically from one case to another. The only way you could accurately predict someone's odds of getting a pink slip would be to know all of those factors, and weigh them in a manner consistent with the way they will be judged by the CO. Other than that, your general odds could be determined if the statistics were known - what percentage overall get pink. Unlike the lottery, the chances of getting approved has nothing whatever to do with the number of color slips available. The chances are based on factors that have nothing to do with the number of possible outcomes. The only way this would NOT be true was if there was only one possible outcome.

[lindal24 1]

When binh was there there were many people that got pink, and when I came back and we were at the consulate I saw many pink as well as many blue. I would say that day it was about 50/50 on pink or blue, but that was only one day, not a week, or not a month, so for me to tell everyone that it is 50/50 chance to get a visa would be false. I like true facts, not " my friend said that bla bla bla" in any case, we need the input and the constructive help not just the bad stories or mis information.

Jerome

TECHNICALLY...there is a 50/50 chance that EVERYONE gets either a blue or a pink.

I haven't seen of any other colors coming out, but I've heard of white and green...now if that's the case and there are in fact 4 different color slips with 4 different results, then there's a 1/4 or 25% chance that you'll get a pink (success) or a blue (delay) or white (unknown) or green (unknown).

Now the percentages of people coming out with pink or blue on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis is a different case.

...just stating the obvious.

That would be true if this were a game of roulette. In reality, statistics are everything in this game. It's distinctly possible for everyone to get pink, or for everyone to get blue. If the odds were based purely on random chance, then the odds against only one color coming out of the consulate would be astronomical, just like the odds of the same number coming up repeatedly on a roulette wheel.

Frankly, we don't know what the odds are based on, nor do we know precisely what the statistics are. Does the consulate operate on a quota system, presuming that a certain percentage of the applications are going to be fraudulent? We simply don't know. If they did, it would explain why someone with a relatively weak case gets approved one day, while someone with a relatively strong case gets denied on a different day. This could also be explained by different CO's with radically standards of judgment.

If we knew, for example, that the percentage of pinks were 15%, then we could say that in general your chances of getting pink were 15%. In reality, even this would not be true, since it's a safe presumption that some of the 85% who aren't approved were inadequately prepared, or had monumental red flags to overcome. Someone who used the guidance found on VJ to prepare themselves and adequately address their red flags could be presumed to have a much better chance of ending up in that 15% category than would a "noob" who had no clue what they were doing.

...your example is THE IS THE ODDS OF SOMEONE WALKING OUT WITH A PINK/BLUE/GREEN/WHITE. The percentages of this is highly incorrect because as you stated in your post the determination of the color is based on a number of items including how the CO feels that day, how prepared the interviewee is, etc. (Think Lottery...you don't know how many people play each day so the odds change)

THIS IS EACH PERSON'S ODDS GOING IN...Simply put...Everyone has the same percentage of getting either a pink/blue/green/white slip though as those are the only colors available.

For example: What are the odds that a person get a pink slip as opposed to a blue/green/white slip? 25%

Reasoning: Because there are only 4 color slips, and of those 4 colors, you only get one of the 4. (Think Coin Toss...there's only 2 possibilities--heads or tails)

So...everyone has a 25% chance of getting pink...if there are 4 colors. 50% if there are only 2 colors...

STAY POSITIVE...THINK PINK!

Wow! You would have FUN in a statistics class!

The odds of someone winning the lottery are exactly the same, regardless of how many people play. They don't randomly pull a specific ticket's number combination from a hat. They randomly pick the number combination itself. For the biggies like Powerball and MegaMillions, they use a bingo machine filled with numbered balls. The odds of that number combination matching the number combination you selected are based on the number of different combinations that are possible. The number of possible combinations is exactly the same with every "draw". They have nothing to do with how many people played the game.

Getting a visa does not work like the lottery. They don't randomly choose which color slip you get from a finite number of available colors. Instead, a consular officer weighs a large number of factors to make a determination. These factors vary dramatically from one case to another. The only way you could accurately predict someone's odds of getting a pink slip would be to know all of those factors, and weigh them in a manner consistent with the way they will be judged by the CO. Other than that, your general odds could be determined if the statistics were known - what percentage overall get pink. Unlike the lottery, the chances of getting approved has nothing whatever to do with the number of color slips available. The chances are based on factors that have nothing to do with the number of possible outcomes. The only way this would NOT be true was if there was only one possible outcome.

I don't think you understand what I was trying to get across. I am simply saying that everyone has a 1 in 4 chance of getting pink--only because there are only 4 colors available. I wasn't referring to the odds that they would get pink--that would be completely different...

[ScottThuy 140]

I am having flashbacks to a research methods course I took.. nothing but statistics on steroids... I need a drink!!!

[SuperDuper! 230]

Congtrats! ALways nice to see a HCMC approval. YOu guys really have to work hard to get a pink slip outta the HCMC tough guy counsulates there!