Applications Down 4 Thailand Beneficiaries (2009 vs. 2008)

[thongd4me 69]

I-129Fs Submitted for Thailand Beneficiaries (6 month period)

..........2008.......................2009

..........April - 07...................11

...........May - 07...................09

..........June - 08...................02

...........July - 12....................02

.....August - 11....................04

September - 08....................00

.....TOTAL.....43....................28

This could be good news for those that filed from April 2009 on,

as the trend shows a lighter workload for the "visa mill."

September is more than half over and so far no submissions.

I know there are a few unsubmitted members working on their

documents, but the clock is ticking for September...

[thongd4me 69]

The numbers under the years are not dates, they are

the number of I-129F petitions filed for the given month/year.

2008 - 43 petitions filed (April-September)

2009 - 28 petitions filed (April-September so far)

For the same 6 month period, the number of petitions was down around 35%

for those that reported through the VJ database.

So far September 2009 shows no petitions filed.

From June to August it looks like the average

number dropped from 7+ to less than 4.

Any ideas? Rainy season? Recession? Poor sperm counts?

It's all good, as long as they process our paperwork on time.

Edited September 16, 2009 by thongd4me

[Rinda and Chris 0]

Your assessment is basically accurate but not unfortunately not indicative of too much difference at least regarding the USCIS part of the process.

My understanding is that VJ represents about 5-10% of the applicants for K-1 and K-3/IR-1 family visas. That is enough to be statistcally valid for large scale assessments of process. However, the sample size for any given country is pretty small. There definitely is a downward trend in American tourism here in Thailand (probably mostly due to recession in the USA) and the recession has probably temporarily impacted the number of filings.

Unfortunately USCIS lumps all of the visas in together and worldwide I think those numbers are pretty stable at only about 22,000 K-1s per year. Additionally USCIS has very limited resources working on K-1s as most of the congressional concern is on their 2 million case backlog. We know that they are working overtime because visas get approved on weekends, but that part of the process is designed to manage a case load and not work it as fast as possible ... but to rather pace the agency. Although USCIS says it is first in-first out, that clearly is not true based on the evidence here. It all depends on which examiner and which box of files you are in. The support systems are weak and files are lost or misplaced.

For Thailand you are lucky right now if you get approved soon. My understanding from both our lawyer (retained before I found VJ) and other reports here on VJ from this month is that interviews are being scheduled in about 2 weeks from receipt of the case at the embassy. This is much better than the 8 week normal timeframe. I do know that Thailand processes about 30,000 active student visas at any given time, so when there are new batches of students I think it is much harder to get an interview for family visas. I'm hoping to get ours completed in the next few weeks.

Good luck with the process ... I know it is really frustrating. When your NOA2 comes, it is like a weight lifted off your shoulders. The rest of the process seems much faster and at least you will be able to see progress from stage to stage instead of just being in limbo.

Chris

[thongd4me 69]

Your assessment is basically accurate but not unfortunately not indicative of too much difference at least regarding the USCIS part of the process.

Good point; being a Thailand petitioner should have little bearing on the USCIS process but more at the consulate stage.

My understanding is that VJ represents about 5-10% of the applicants for K-1 and K-3/IR-1 family visas. That is enough to be statistcally valid for large scale assessments of process. However, the sample size for any given country is pretty small. There definitely is a downward trend in American tourism here in Thailand (probably mostly due to recession in the USA) and the recession has probably temporarily impacted the number of filings.

Unfortunately USCIS lumps all of the visas in together and worldwide I think those numbers are pretty stable at only about 22,000 K-1s per year. Additionally USCIS has very limited resources working on K-1s as most of the congressional concern is on their 2 million case backlog. We know that they are working overtime because visas get approved on weekends, but that part of the process is designed to manage a case load and not work it as fast as possible ... but to rather pace the agency. Although USCIS says it is first in-first out, that clearly is not true based on the evidence here. It all depends on which examiner and which box of files you are in. The support systems are weak and files are lost or misplaced.

For Thailand you are lucky right now if you get approved soon. My understanding from both our lawyer (retained before I found VJ) and other reports here on VJ from this month is that interviews are being scheduled in about 2 weeks from receipt of the case at the embassy. This is much better than the 8 week normal timeframe. I do know that Thailand processes about 30,000 active student visas at any given time, so when there are new batches of students I think it is much harder to get an interview for family visas. I'm hoping to get ours completed in the next few weeks.

Yes, I didn't think of the student visas; that could slow things short term; I would expect that to subside in

October/November when I would hope to see my NOA2 (probably later than sooner).

In any case, nothing we can do here to speed up that process; have to see if the

trend for fewer petitions continues.

Good luck with the process ... I know it is really frustrating. When your NOA2 comes, it is like a weight lifted off your shoulders. The rest of the process seems much faster and at least you will be able to see progress from stage to stage instead of just being in limbo.

Chris

Good luck with your interview

[thongd4me 69]

We have one more for September (total of 2 with 2 days left in the month).

The decline in applications continues, but we could have a few more for September that update their timelines in October.

I-129Fs Submitted for Thailand Beneficiaries (6 month period)

..........2008.......................2009

..........April - 07...................11

...........May - 07...................09

..........June - 08...................02

...........July - 12....................02

.....August - 11....................04

September - 08....................02

.....TOTAL.....43....................30

Edited September 21, 2009 by thongd4me