New Study shows the Climate Models the U.N. used "fundamentally wrong".

[Danno 1,228]

Study shakes foundation of climate theory! Reveals UN models 'fundamentally wrong' - Blames 'Unknown Processes' -- not CO2 for ancient global warming

'Global warming: Our best guess is likely wrong'

http://www.climatedepot.com/a/1955/Study-s...-global-warming

By Marc Morano – Climate Depot

A new peer-reviewed study may shake the foundation upon which man-made global warming fears are based. The new study discovered "something fundamentally wrong with the way temperature and carbon are linked in climate models."

The study, which was published on July 14, 2009 in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Geoscience, found CO2 was not to blame for a major ancient global warming period and instead found “unknown processes accounted for much of warming in the ancient hot spell.” The press release for the study was headlined: "Global warming: Our best guess is likely wrong."

"In a nutshell, theoretical models cannot explain what we observe in the geological record," said oceanographer Gerald Dickens, a co-author of the study and professor of Earth science at Rice University. "There appears to be something fundamentally wrong with the way temperature and carbon are linked in climate models."

The study noted that the same climate models the UN IPCC uses can only “explain only about half of the heating that occurred during a well-documented period of rapid global warming in Earth's ancient past.” The study concluded that “something other than carbon dioxide caused much of the heating during the PETM (Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum of 55 million years ago) and “unknown processes account for much of warming in the ancient hot spell.”

“No one knows exactly how much Earth's climate will warm due to carbon emissions, but a new study this week suggests scientists' best predictions about global warming might be incorrect,” noted the press release from Rice University about the new study.

"Some feedback loop or other processes that aren't accounted for in these models -- the same ones used by the IPCC for current best estimates of 21st Century warming -- caused a substantial portion of the warming that occurred during the PETM (Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum of 55 million years ago)”, oceanographer Gerald Dickens, a professor of Earth science at Rice University and study co-author said.

“The study found that climate models explain only about half of the heating that occurred during a well-documented period of rapid global warming in Earth's ancient past. The study contains an analysis of published records from a period of rapid climatic warming about 55 million years ago known as the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum, or PETM. “During the PETM, for reasons that are still unknown, the amount of carbon in Earth's atmosphere rose rapidly. For this reason, the PETM, which has been identified in hundreds of sediment core samples worldwide, is probably the best ancient climate analogue for present-day Earth,” the release noted. For full press release see here:

The study was co-authored with Richard Zeebe of the University of Hawaii and James Zachos of the University of California-Santa Cruz.

'I don't think we can say much about what the humans are doing'

This new study comes on the heels of several new developments in climate modeling and global warming.

Dr. Anastasios Tsonis co-author of the UW-Milwaukee peer-reviewed paper in March 2009, touted as a study which ”Could Realign Climate Change Theory“. See: “Scientists Claim Earth Is Undergoing Natural Climate Shift“.

“If we don't understand what is natural, I don't think we can say much about what the humans are doing. So our interest is to understand — first the natural variability of climate — and then take it from there. So we were very excited when we realized a lot of changes in the past century from warmer to cooler and then back to warmer were all natural,” Tsonis said. Tsonis said he thinks the current trend of steady or even cooling earth temps may last a couple of decades or until the next climate shift occurs.”

Other scientists have echoed these conclusions.

“Over geologic time. there has been 15 to 25 times more CO2 than current concentrations; the claim that this time we will reach a tipping point is alarmist, ludicrous, and totally without foundation,” declared atmospheric scientist Robert W. Endlich on July 12, 2009. Endlich tests weather software at the Physical Sciences Laboratory at New Mexico State University, and is a former weather officer with the U.S. Air Force who has published papers in the technical literature.

In addition, further evidence that the science of CO2 climate forcing is still “unsettled“ came on July 13, 2009. The University of Colorado was awarded a $42 million NASA contract to study the sun's radiation. "In order to quantify the anthropogenic influences on climate, we need accurate measurements of the natural climate-forcing agents, the most important of which is the sun," associate professor Peter Pilewskie said.

'Climate model software doesn't meet the best standards available'

Earlier this month, Climate Depot reported on a U.S. Government Scientist who admitted that “climate model software doesn't meet the best standards available.” Gary Strand, a software engineer at the federally funded National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), admitted climate model software “doesn't meet the best standards available” in a comment he posted on the website Climate Audit.

“As a software engineer, I know that climate model software doesn't meet the best standards available. We've made quite a lot of progress, but we've still quite a ways to go,” Strand wrote on July 5, 2009, according to the website WattsUpWithThat.com. Strand's candid admission promoted WattsUpWithThat's skeptical Meteorologist Anthony Watts to ask the following question:

“Do we really want Congress to make trillion dollar tax decisions today based on 'software [that] doesn't meet the best standards available?'”

Climate models made by unlicensed 'software engineers'

The credibility of these computer model predictions -- used by governments to determine global warming policy based on future climate risks -- have been under increasingly intense scrutiny for years.

In June 2007, Dr. Jim Renwick, a top UN IPCC scientist, admitted that climate models do not account for half the variability in nature and thus are not reliable. "Half of the variability in the climate system is not predictable, so we don't expect to do terrifically well," Renwick conceded. (LINK)

Another high-profile UN IPCC lead author, Dr. Kevin Trenberth, echoed Renwick's sentiments in 2007 about climate models by referring to them as “story lines.”

“In fact there are no predictions by IPCC at all. And there never have been. The IPCC instead proffers 'what if' projections of future climate that correspond to certain emissions scenarios,” Trenberth wrote in journal Nature's blog on June 4, 2007.

Trenberth also admitted that the climate models have major shortcomings because “they do not consider many things like the recovery of the ozone layer, for instance, or observed trends in forcing agents. There is no estimate, even probabilistically, as to the likelihood of any emissions scenario and no best guess." (LINK)

IPCC reviewer and climate researcher Dr Vincent Gray, of New Zealand, an expert reviewer on every single draft of the IPCC reports going back to 1990, author of more than 100 scientific publications and author of The Greenhouse Delusion: A Critique of "Climate Change 2001," declared “The claims of the IPCC are dangerous unscientific nonsense” in an April 10, 2007 article. (LINK) & (LINK)

“All [uN IPCC does] is make 'projections' and 'estimates'. No climate model has ever been properly tested, which is what 'validation' means, and their 'projections' are nothing more than the opinions of 'experts' with a conflict of interest, because they are paid to produce the models. There is no actual scientific evidence for all these 'projections' and 'estimates,'” Gray noted.

In addition, atmospheric scientist Dr. Hendrik Tennekes, a scientific pioneer in the development of numerical weather prediction and former director of research at The Netherlands' Royal National Meteorological Institute, recently compared scientists who promote computer models predicting future climate doom to unlicensed “software engineers."

"I am of the opinion that most scientists engaged in the design, development, and tuning of climate models are in fact software engineers. They are unlicensed, hence unqualified to sell their products to society," Tennekes wrote on February 28, 2007. (LINK)

[ready4ONE 5,400]

http://wonkroom.thinkprogress.org/2009/04/...ate-depot-joke/

By Brad Johnson on Apr 7th, 2009 at 10:56 am

Climate Depot Alert! Global Warming Denier Marc Morano Sets Up Shop! Now With Crazier Formatting!

The Committee For a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT), a toxic pollution front group founded by the Richard Mellon Scaife fortune, recently hired Sen. Jim Inhofe's (R-OK) climate denier guru, Marc Morano, to set up shop at ClimateDepot.com. Morano's slanderous Senate releases were notorious for their enthusiastic formatting. Thanks to DeSmogBlog, the Wonk Room has received his pitch to the media as an "anti-Gore Global Warming Expert," seemingly qualified by his ability to creatively use the toolbar on his word-processing software:

Truth goes on and on...

Edited July 15, 2009 by ready4ONE

[Trumplestiltskin 5,791]

Morano is a bit of a Pariah as far as climate stories go. I'd be more interested in the study itself than the middleman promoting it.

[ready4ONE 5,400]

Morano is a bit of a Pariah as far as climate stories go. I'd be more interested in the study itself than the middleman promoting it.

Ain't that the truth!

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Good God, Danno. You think maybe you'd actually find the supposed article that Marc Morano is talking about? Going to the link he has on his page leads you to here:

http://www.media.rice.edu/media/NewsBot.as...SnID=2075327496

...which is post made by a Jade Boyd who refers again to this mysterious article in Nature Geoscience, but with no link, no quotes, no citations.

......

And if you don't already know who this schmuck Marc Morano is, try reading about him here:

Morano is a former journalist with Cybercast News Service (CNS), which is owned by the conservative Media Research Center. CNS and Morano were the first source in May 2004 of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth claims against John Kerry in the 2004 presidential election [1] and in January 2006 of similar smears against Vietnam war veteran John Murtha.

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Marc_Morano

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Good God, Danno. You think maybe you'd actually find the supposed article that Marc Morano is talking about? Going to the link he has on his page leads you to here:

http://www.media.rice.edu/media/NewsBot.as...SnID=2075327496

...which is post made by a Jade Boyd who refers again to this mysterious article in Nature Geoscience, but with no link, no quotes, no citations.

......

And if you don't already know who this schmuck Marc Morano is, try reading about him here:

Morano is a former journalist with Cybercast News Service (CNS), which is owned by the conservative Media Research Center. CNS and Morano were the first source in May 2004 of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth claims against John Kerry in the 2004 presidential election [1] and in January 2006 of similar smears against Vietnam war veteran John Murtha.

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Marc_Morano

Marc Morano is a legend - in Hamelin.

Edited July 15, 2009 by Mr. Big Dog

[GaryC 7]

You should have known Dano. As soon as anything comes out to contradict their religion they go into attack mode. Smear the middleman, smear the orginizations they are associated with, ignore the conclusions and focus on anything they can to discredit. Anything but rethink their views.

[Trumplestiltskin 5,791]

The thing is Gary - you aren't any more qualified to discuss the science on this issue than anyone else. It isn't a subject that can be debated with rhetoric and a quick revert to google and a slew of dodgy websites.

Playing the victim is just silly and tired.

[GaryC 7]

The thing is Gary - you aren't any more qualified to discuss the science on this issue than anyone else. It isn't a subject that can be debated with rhetoric and a quick revert to google and a slew of dodgy websites.

Playing the victim is just silly and tired.

And watching people attack something they also don't know anything about is silly and tired.

[웃 910]

This is the only "proof" I have found to be credible:

[Trumplestiltskin 5,791]

The thing is Gary - you aren't any more qualified to discuss the science on this issue than anyone else. It isn't a subject that can be debated with rhetoric and a quick revert to google and a slew of dodgy websites.

Playing the victim is just silly and tired.

And watching people attack something they also don't know anything about is silly and tired.

Well... where is the article in question? Surely that's a reasonable question.

You're no less biased than the people you're complaining about. You've established a rigid view on the subject and are in lockstep support of anything that justifies it, no matter if its accurate or not. It doesn't exactly help your argument.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

You should have known Dano. As soon as anything comes out to contradict their religion they go into attack mode. Smear the middleman, smear the orginizations they are associated with, ignore the conclusions and focus on anything they can to discredit. Anything but rethink their views.

No, you and Danno should both pull your heads out the sand and realize there are those out there like this schmuck poser, Marc Merano, purposely trying to deceive you.

[Peikko 1,575]

I have some papers proving climate change is a hoax orchestrated by Al Gore in cahoots with the Russian Mafia. My rates are very reasonable. PM for details.

[pedroh 21]

I have some papers proving climate change is a hoax orchestrated by Al Gore in cahoots with the Russian Mafia. My rates are very reasonable. PM for details.

first the internetz, then GW.. darn u Gore!!

[GaryC 7]

You should have known Dano. As soon as anything comes out to contradict their religion they go into attack mode. Smear the middleman, smear the orginizations they are associated with, ignore the conclusions and focus on anything they can to discredit. Anything but rethink their views.

No, you and Danno should both pull your heads out the sand and realize there are those out there like this schmuck poser, Marc Merano, purposely trying to deceive you.

Yeah, Like Al Gore for one.