White House issues new dire climate report: Scientists: Extreme weather will worsen if pollutants aren't curbed

[HAL 9000 96]

This whole argument on the definition of scientific theory in this thread is moot and pointless, IMO.

If Global Warming is in fact a scientific theory and all scientific theories are accepted by the scientific community as a whole, that means consensus. Is there a dispute whether it is in fact a theory?

Scientific theories are models, and work only as long as they can show a cause and effect relationship between what is observed going in (input) and what is observed coming out (output). Without observations at both ends, then we just have a hypothesis. Much of the data that is used to come to that hypothesis is by way of a process of Numerical Analysis, one of the core courses within my degree field. Trying to fit an equation, or set of equations to observed data works as long as you stay within the observed data points. Once you venture beyond that set of data points, you are likely to observe increasing divergence.

In other words, trying to predict the future is not an exact science, especially when dealing with a dynamic system, where the observer has few contraints on the system.

Remember there are non-mathematical models too. But that is for the theoretical scientists out there. Definitely not you or me (thank goodness). I am sure multivariate systems like, ehemm... climate... flows somewhere between basic mathematical models that are being fine-tuned by existing and forthcoming methods and the more theoretical stuff. I suspect as we start combining more and more contributory variables we'll see a more faithful mathematical representation of the events unfolding. Including real-time phenomena that tend to likely confuse observers into discrediting the theory by ignoring homeostatic states.

Data is always your friend as a scientist, but sometimes makes more work for the mathematician. Some of those curves look pretty ugly when you try to fit a polynomial to the data set, and trying to extropolate anything beyond the first and last inflection points is meaningless. It was a very dry subject, and not well attended, much like Combinatorics, a real mindfvck couse.

Yep.

Well... data is the scientist's friend when it supports the hypothesis. Lord knows negative data has a really hard time getting published because it follows the Null. I gather some folks would likely benefit from an elementary stat class in order to come to grips that positive results tend to be so because they reject the Null outright.

But yeah... data fitting non-linear relationships... yikes!!! Thank goodness for future AI systems that will use more exact methods than extrapolation beyond linear limits to guesstimate stuff.

If life was more linear... I think science would be a heck of a lot easier to digest for some.

[tmma 467]

Completly as an aside----I'm getting flashbacks to a thread awhile ago where someone was arguing that warming atmospheric temps was a 'good thing'....HAL, you were there, remember?

Whomever went offline when it was getting interesting and 'meaty'.

*goes off to find the thread*.

Edited June 19, 2009 by tmma

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Completly as an aside----I'm getting flashbacks to a thread awhile ago where someone was arguing that warming atmospheric temps was a 'good thing'....HAL, you were there, remember?

Whomever went offline when it was getting interesting and 'meaty'.

*goes off to find the thread*.

You mean the "Eden Effect"? I find heard that term in an Army briefing about Soviet Russia twenty-five years ago.

There was this thread, I think the last time we had a good discussion: http://www.visajourney.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=185002

Edited June 19, 2009 by Mister_Bill

[tmma 467]

Completly as an aside----I'm getting flashbacks to a thread awhile ago where someone was arguing that warming atmospheric temps was a 'good thing'....HAL, you were there, remember?

Whomever went offline when it was getting interesting and 'meaty'.

*goes off to find the thread*.

You mean the "Eden Effect"? I find heard that term in an Army briefing about Soviet Russia twenty-five years ago.

Ah yes, Mr Bill it was you.

.........

.......

Think positively. There is plenty of evidence to show many benefits to a rise in mean atmosperic and water temperatures. There is an increasing amount of anthropological evidence that civilizations thrived in warmer conditions. Think of as it as an adventure. We are by nature nomadic creatures. Sooner, or later, it will be time to pack your stuff and look for greeener pastures.

So sorry if that disturbs some folks need for stability.

[tmma 467]

There was this thread, I think the last time we had a good discussion: http://www.visajourney.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=185002

Yep-that's the one.

[HAL 9000 96]

Completly as an aside----I'm getting flashbacks to a thread awhile ago where someone was arguing that warming atmospheric temps was a 'good thing'....HAL, you were there, remember?

Whomever went offline when it was getting interesting and 'meaty'.

*goes off to find the thread*.

Yeah I remember that... all about how Canada's productivity would shoot up. Of course... no telling what would happen to topsoil under those circumstances with increased liquid precipitation and all that jazz. Sometimes the most 'reasonable' sounding alternatives end up opening a whole lot of (unconsidered) worms in a can.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

There was this thread, I think the last time we had a good discussion: http://www.visajourney.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=185002

Yep-that's the one.

I gots to take the wife to do laundry. I think we set the table for the chopfvcks to continue the discussion.

[HAL 9000 96]

There was this thread, I think the last time we had a good discussion: http://www.visajourney.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=185002

Yep-that's the one.

Oh yeah I remember that one.

[HAL 9000 96]

There was this thread, I think the last time we had a good discussion: http://www.visajourney.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=185002

Yep-that's the one.

I gots to take the wife to do laundry. I think we set the table for the chopfvcks to continue the discussion.

Third-rate chopfvcks, mind you! Enjoy the Bounty!

[mawilson 2,133]

Yeah I remember that... all about how Canada's productivity would shoot up. Of course... no telling what would happen to topsoil under those circumstances with increased liquid precipitation and all that jazz.

OMFG... increased precipitation! We're all gonna die!

[HAL 9000 96]

Yeah I remember that... all about how Canada's productivity would shoot up. Of course... no telling what would happen to topsoil under those circumstances with increased liquid precipitation and all that jazz.

OMFG... increased precipitation! We're all gonna die!

topsoil meet mark.

[Hilarious Clinton 452]

DIRE and EXTREME in the title.

If you have nothing worthwhile to add then you are just trolling.

Well, your useless comment added no value.

Actually it did... yours was just plain stupid. If you're bored go mow the lawn or something.

Let me explain it so even someone of your intelligence can understand.

By using DIRE and EXTREME the Obama administration is using scare tactics. Is this more 'change'?

[HAL 9000 96]

by Shaun McKinnon -

The Arizona Republic

Hotter summers, shorter winters, more intense storms, deepening droughts and melting glaciers add up to one clear conclusion, scientists said Tuesday:

Earth's climate is already changing, and the effects will grow worse if the threat is ignored.

The scientists made their case in a new report intended to chart the immediate and future risks of rising temperatures in the United States. The document narrowed the focus of a 2007 global assessment that presented much of the same information.

What was new and significant was the source of the report: It was released by the White House, affirming President Barack Obama's pledge to address an issue his predecessor largely ignored.

"Remedial action is needed sooner rather than later," said John Holdren, the president's science adviser. Holdren said the report spells out why the country must act now to slow rising temperatures and adapt to changes "that are no longer avoidable."

The report, based on a similar draft that a lawsuit forced the Bush administration to compile, stakes an aggressive claim that global warming is almost certainly caused by man-made greenhouse gases. That assertion is central to Obama's call for a plan to reduce pollution levels.

Congress is examining several approaches, but debate over the cost - and even whether global warming is real - has stalled progress. The report's authors downplayed their role in shaping the specifics of any legislation and said their aim is to educate lawmakers and the public.

"The foot-dragging on climate change is a reflection of the public's perception that it is all down the road and only affects remote parts of the world," said Jane Lubchenco, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the agency that coordinated the research.

"This report provides the concrete scientific information that says unequivocally that climate change is happening now, and it's happening in our own backyards, and it affects the kind of things people care about," Lubchenco added.

Even with its theme of immediacy, the report did not shy away from dire predictions of what might happen if man-made greenhouse gases, mostly pollutants produced by the burning of fossil fuels, keep filling the skies.

Drawing from findings that have been published and reviewed previously, the authors imagined a worst-case world, one that would look much different by the end of the century:

• High temperatures would spread northward, with 100-degree days becoming as common in some Midwestern states as they are in Arizona.

• Extreme-weather conditions would spawn floods, tornadoes and deadly hurricanes.

• Rising sea levels would inundate long stretches of the Florida coast, and storm surges from the Gulf of Mexico would pound New Orleans and other cities.

Arizona sits in a bull's-eye of many threats, including drought, hotter weather and shrinking water supplies. The report noted that rising temperatures have already affected the water-runoff cycle, melting snow too early and drying up rivers.

"The fact that we're seeing all these changes already taking place gives us a high amount of confidence that we'll see more of them," said Jonathan Overpeck, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Arizona and one of the report's authors.

Researchers have studied Arizona's recent drought for clues about its origin, and although they can't say it was caused by global warming, they see hints about how a hotter climate might affect the state. Water could become even scarcer. Wildfires would burn more acres. Insects would thrive in warmer, drier forests.

Already in Phoenix, the number of 100-degree days every year has climbed from fewer than 90 in the 1970s to an average of 109.

Population growth and the demand for water and energy will exacerbate many of the effects, said an Arizona State University ecologist who contributed to the report. "People seem to want to live and build their cities precisely where the risk of impacts is greatest, along coasts and in the driest regions of the country," said Nancy Grimm, who has studied urban ecology in Phoenix.

Although the report at times reads like a catalog of biblical plagues - fire, floods, insect infestations, destruction of crops - the authors acknowledge that much is still unknown about the long term.

A longer growing season and more rain could help farmers, for example, but the farmers may have to adjust the crops they grow or the way they grow them. Already, the center of maple-syrup production has begun to shift northward, scientists said, as higher temperatures in New England affect the health of maple trees.

"The bottom line is: Climate change already is affecting the things we value," said Jerry Melillo, one of the report's chief authors and a scientist at the Marine Biological Laboratory in Woods Hole, Mass.

"These are not opinions to be debated, they are facts to be dealt with. Climate change is not just an environmental issue. It is about people, it is about us."

http://www.azcentral.com/news/green/articl...report0617.html

"Bump"

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

I knew you couldn't stay away. You miss the drama.

Now, I have to actually read the posts before I dismiss them out of hand.

[HAL 9000 96]

I knew you couldn't stay away. You miss the drama.

Now, I have to actually read the posts before I dismiss them out of hand.

Reading [comprehension] is indeed a rare quality sometimes.