Top Pieces of Evidence that the Iranian Presidential Election Was Stolen

[one...two...tree 2,762]

by Juan Cole, President of the Global American Institute

1. It is claimed that Ahmadinejad won the city of Tabriz with 57%. His main opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is an Azeri from Azerbaijan province, of which Tabriz is the capital. Mousavi, according to such polls as exist in Iran and widespread anecdotal evidence, did better in cities and is popular in Azerbaijan. Certainly, his rallies there were very well attended. So for an Azeri urban center to go so heavily for Ahmadinejad just makes no sense. In past elections, Azeris voted disproportionately for even minor presidential candidates who hailed from that province.

2. Ahmadinejad is claimed to have taken Tehran by over 50%. Again, he is not popular in the cities, even, as he claims, in the poor neighborhoods, in part because his policies have produced high inflation and high unemployment. That he should have won Tehran is so unlikely as to raise real questions about these numbers. [Ahmadinejad is widely thought only to have won Tehran in 2005 because the pro-reform groups were discouraged and stayed home rather than voting.)

3. It is claimed that cleric Mehdi Karoubi, the other reformist candidate, received 320,000 votes, and that he did poorly in Iran's western provinces, even losing in Luristan. He is a Lur and is popular in the west, including in Kurdistan. Karoubi received 17 percent of the vote in the first round of presidential elections in 2005. While it is possible that his support has substantially declined since then, it is hard to believe that he would get less than one percent of the vote. Moreover, he should have at least done well in the west, which he did not.

4. Mohsen Rezaie, who polled very badly and seems not to have been at all popular, is alleged to have received 670,000 votes, twice as much as Karoubi.

5. Ahmadinejad's numbers were fairly standard across Iran's provinces. In past elections there have been substantial ethnic and provincial variations.

6. The Electoral Commission is supposed to wait three days before certifying the results of the election, at which point they are to inform Khamenei of the results, and he signs off on the process. The three-day delay is intended to allow charges of irregularities to be adjudicated. In this case, Khamenei immediately approved the alleged results.

I am aware of the difficulties of catching history on the run. Some explanation may emerge for Ahmadinejad's upset that does not involve fraud. For instance, it is possible that he has gotten the credit for spreading around a lot of oil money in the form of favors to his constituencies, but somehow managed to escape the blame for the resultant high inflation.

But just as a first reaction, this post-election situation looks to me like a crime scene. And here is how I would reconstruct the crime.

As the real numbers started coming into the Interior Ministry late on Friday, it became clear that Mousavi was winning. Mousavi's spokesman abroad, filmmaker Mohsen Makhbalbaf, alleges that the ministry even contacted Mousavi's camp and said it would begin preparing the population for this victory.

The ministry must have informed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has had a feud with Mousavi for over 30 years, who found this outcome unsupportable. And, apparently, he and other top leaders had been so confident of an Ahmadinejad win that they had made no contingency plans for what to do if he looked as though he would lose.

They therefore sent blanket instructions to the Electoral Commission to falsify the vote counts.

This clumsy cover-up then produced the incredible result of an Ahmadinejad landlside in Tabriz and Isfahan and Tehran.

The reason for which Rezaie and Karoubi had to be assigned such implausibly low totals was to make sure Ahmadinejad got over 51% of the vote and thus avoid a run-off between him and Mousavi next Friday, which would have given the Mousavi camp a chance to attempt to rally the public and forestall further tampering with the election.

This scenario accounts for all known anomalies and is consistent with what we know of the major players.

More in my column, just out, in Salon.com: "Ahmadinejad reelected under cloud of fraud," where I argue that the outcome of the presidential elections does not and should not affect Obama's policies toward that country-- they are the right policies and should be followed through on regardless.

http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/stealing-i...n-election.html

[Danno 1,228]

It's been half a year now... when is Barry going to start having these "conversations" with these leaders?

Obama said he would have these talks "without conditions".....Obviously he over looked one condition which is required for every conversation, that would be that "both" parties want to talk.

So where are we at now.... deluding ourselves into thinking Obamas talk to the Arab world touched the Hearts and minds and some how their votes were not heard?

Read my siggy below 3 times

[Ban Hammer 13,364]

he used gwb's voting machines

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Do you think Ahmadinejad can do anything about this once he takes office?

[alienlovechild 75]

So where are we at now.... deluding ourselves into thinking Obamas talk to the Arab world touched the Hearts and minds and some how their votes were not heard?

Obama's a simple-minded ####### who believes his own good press. Like LBJ or JFK, he thinks he can either twist arms or charm his way through any problem in any country but that BS doesn't work abroad.

He still really hasn't gone through a real crisis abroad and a lot of baddies are going to see if he has a "spine of steel" as Biden claims.

[ready4ONE 5,400]

Obama is now responsible for corruption in the Iranian political system??? Still waiting for the Right to break the story of Obama killing and eating the last dodo bird...

[scandal 951]

Obama is now responsible for corruption in the Iranian political system??? Still waiting for the Right to break the story of Obama killing and eating the last dodo bird...

It's how they roll on VJ.

Talk about an election in a country halfway around the world. Discuss the domestic scene there in which the players are called Mousavi, Ahmadinejad, and Khamenei. And the issues are about the domestic economy in Iran, the bite that sanctions have taken there, the 20%+ inflation rate, the fact that the majority of voters were born after the 1979 revolution and are not "into" revolutionary politics as was the old guard, the cronyism and patronage with which Ahmadinejad handed out perks and government jobs, the outrageous accusations he has made regarding Mosavi's wife's academic credentials and other inanities.

Talk about all of those matters, none of which have the slightest bit of anything remotely to do with Obama, Democrats, or the USA.

But of course we can rely on the VJ faithful to immediately add their 2-bit comments and try to transform this into the only issue they seem to care about, or believe they know anything about, namely how one man called Barack Obama is the root of all evil in the world. It all boils down to one thing for them. Life must be easy when it's all cookie cutter one-size-fits-all.

Back to topic -- from what I gather it's still not a done deal. They're still counting votes. More than likely the fix is in, and most likely Khamenei is the one who instigated it. However there is still a chance for a turnaround in the vote counting.

[spookyturtle 9,466]

It's been half a year now... when is Barry going to start having these "conversations" with these leaders?

Obama said he would have these talks "without conditions".....Obviously he over looked one condition which is required for every conversation, that would be that "both" parties want to talk.

So where are we at now.... deluding ourselves into thinking Obamas talk to the Arab world touched the Hearts and minds and some how their votes were not heard?

Read my siggy below 3 times

Still butt hurt because Obama won? Relax, you'll have a stroke before the next election.

[Scott & Lai 12]

Still waiting for the Right to break the story of Obama killing and eating the last dodo bird...

I thought that was GWB

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Obama is now responsible for corruption in the Iranian political system??? Still waiting for the Right to break the story of Obama killing and eating the last dodo bird...

It's how they roll on VJ.

Talk about an election in a country halfway around the world. Discuss the domestic scene there in which the players are called Mousavi, Ahmadinejad, and Khamenei. And the issues are about the domestic economy in Iran, the bite that sanctions have taken there, the 20%+ inflation rate, the fact that the majority of voters were born after the 1979 revolution and are not "into" revolutionary politics as was the old guard, the cronyism and patronage with which Ahmadinejad handed out perks and government jobs, the outrageous accusations he has made regarding Mosavi's wife's academic credentials and other inanities.

Talk about all of those matters, none of which have the slightest bit of anything remotely to do with Obama, Democrats, or the USA.

But of course we can rely on the VJ faithful to immediately add their 2-bit comments and try to transform this into the only issue they seem to care about, or believe they know anything about, namely how one man called Barack Obama is the root of all evil in the world. It all boils down to one thing for them. Life must be easy when it's all cookie cutter one-size-fits-all.

Back to topic -- from what I gather it's still not a done deal. They're still counting votes. More than likely the fix is in, and most likely Khamenei is the one who instigated it. However there is still a chance for a turnaround in the vote counting.

Hey Ron,

Did you happen to see or hear about this?

Link: A committee of respected Ayatollahs (the spiritual fighters) have requested that the election be invalidated for the purpose of restoring the people’s trust in the Islamic Republic. "We request the people to stay calm and not to provoke the government agents."

[scandal 951]

Hey Ron,

Did you happen to see or hear about this?

Link: A committee of respected Ayatollahs (the spiritual fighters) have requested that the election be invalidated for the purpose of restoring the people’s trust in the Islamic Republic. "We request the people to stay calm and not to provoke the government agents."

Steve, your link is entirely in Arabic (which I cannot read).

The latest I'm seeing on American news media is that Ahmadinejad is about to declare victory, while reformists are being arrested.