Mexico presidential election exit polls too close to call

[VivaMexico 0]

Regardless of the truth or not truth of this particular accusation, the fact remains (and this is an undeniable fact) that corruption does exist in Mexico all the way up and all the way down. When I hear things like "anything is possible with money" in reference to Mexico's immigration, that is troubling to me. Corruption isn't just happening with the agencies and the cops on the streets-it's a problem straight to the top and as long as Mexicans are willing to turn a blind eye to it, they will continue to live the lives of poverty and struggle that so many of them are living right now. I think it's about time someone said something about it.

I very much agree. Mexicans have long been underserved by their government officials, police, etc. It is time that they get some real leadership and fight the corruption that is so pervasive. I hope that when this election is resolved that the country can heal the rifts between the different sides and move forward together toward that goal.

[VivaMexico 0]

In light of our recent conversation, here is an interesting article from today's Wall Street Journal:

July 7, 2006; Page A13

MEXICO CITY -- It was 4:04 a.m. here yesterday when National Action Party (PAN) candidate Felipe Calderón finally pulled ahead in the official presidential vote count -- a recount of Sunday's tally. With 98% of the polling stations reporting and those remaining mostly in PAN strongholds, the long night was finally over. But the drama may be only beginning.

As the scoreboard ticked 0.01% in Mr. Calderón's favor, the candidate, who had been in a private room at PAN headquarters, emerged to meet a cheering crowd and deliver an acceptance speech. He thanked his supporters and then his opponents by name, and he called for reconciliation, pluralism and peace. This contrasted sharply with a scene, filmed moments earlier in the city's historic square, featuring a ragtag group of backers of the also-ran Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) candidate Andres Manuel López Obrador (aka AMLO) chanting "fraud, fraud, fraud."

Mexico now has a president-elect. But AMLO, who came in second in both the Sunday count and the Wednesday recount, says that he will not accept the results. In a press conference yesterday, he announced that a "manipulation" of the results is "evident" and accused the independent Federal Electoral Institute of working in cahoots with Mr. Calderón. That speech, it seems clear, was not meant for the ears of election officials or even the electoral court but for his followers. AMLO appears intent on persuading them, as is his stock in trade, that they have once again been cheated by the system.

Mexican election law allows for appeals in a close election and a López Obrador legal challenge to the vote is widely expected. Mexico remains confident that its institutions can withstand such a test, which by law would have to be wrapped up by the end of August. One suspicion is that he is hoping to provoke a legal misstep that will require an annulment of the election. Most here think that the Federal Election Institute is sophisticated enough to avoid that trap.

Another concern is whether the PRD will gin up a violent reaction to this defeat. Mob disturbances have been an AMLO staple for most of his career. And while this time it could cost him dearly in this conservative nation, he may also see it as his last chance to salvage his hope to wear the presidential sash. Six years from now, the presidential aspirations of both the son of the legendary Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, who is a well-respected governor of Michoacan and the newly elected mayor of this city, could make another AMLO candidacy for the PRD a long shot.

Should Mr. López Obrador decide to put all his money on the slim chance he can prevail, his infamous modus operandi of mob activism during his early career in the southern state of Tabasco and later as the mayor of this city may give guidance about what Mexicans are in for. Indeed, he seems to have been training for this mission for some time.

Mr. López Obrador has understood from the first moment of his candidacy that discrediting the Federal Electoral Institute was crucial. He made that effort a main plank in his platform, which, more broadly, painted him as an aggrieved victim outside the system and put him on the side of the disenfranchised. He is also a skilled media manipulator who knows how to play to the camera. And he is a master script writer, which may be why his critics were immediately wary on Wednesday evening when the recount was running far ahead in his favor.

When I met with Felipe Calderón on Tuesday afternoon, he told me he hadn't a shadow of a doubt that he had won. All parties had copies of the tallies and the PAN had done the arithmetic.

I didn't see any reason for Mr. Calderón to be lying about this and independent observers confirmed it too. But at 9 on Wednesday evening, with 81% of the country's polling stations reporting, Mr. López Obrador had a lead of two percentage points and my phone started to ring. Mexicans were beginning to wonder about the preliminary count on Sunday that showed the PAN victorious. The only places I found total calm were at the PAN campaign headquarters and among electoral wonks who assured me that Sunday tallies would hold and that time would prove the Calderón victory.

The problem, as it finally emerged, was in the flow of polling-station reports. What we had seen late on Wednesday evening were reports from this city and other PRD strongholds. Tally sheets from polling stations in heavily pro-PAN states were being held back.

It now seems that these delays, which were later confirmed, were not an accident. While it is true that many of the pro-PAN states lie to the west of the country, two hours behind the capital, even that doesn't account for the enormous distortions in reporting into the wee hours of Thursday. For example, at 1:30 a.m., when most states had either closed their books or reported more than 90% of polling station results, the heavily Panista states of Nuevo Leon, Guanajato, Baja California and Sonora still had less than 90% of their polling stations reporting. Word went out that PRD polling station officials in these states were dragging their feet in signing off on the tally sheets. The clear objective was to give Mexicans the impression that AMLO had secured a victory, only to have it pulled from him in the dark of the night.

The public, of course, was flying blind and there was great confusion about the Calderón lag. But sometime around 2:30 a.m. television viewers inadvertently got a glimpse of the outcome. AMLO was still in the lead but one of his campaign advisers, Ricardo Monreal, popped up on the TV screen insisting that the count had been manipulated in a conspiracy between the Federal Electoral Institute and the PAN. I was reminded of Mr. Calderón's words to me on Tuesday, that he won and that AMLO knew it too.

Now the legal challenges begin -- and perhaps worse. On Wednesday AMLO marchers blocked traffic on a main boulevard and 400 rabblerousers camped outside the Federal Electoral Institute to protest, with a clear message of intimidation. Now Mr. López Obrador has called a rally for tomorrow morning.

But I'm betting on Mexico. The one thing the political savvy AMLO still doesn't get is that this is not 1988. Mexican institutions are developing and Mexicans have moved on. It seems like they want him to do the same.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Almost one month later...

Mexico's Stock Exchange Blockaded by Lopez Obrador

Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Supporters of Mexican presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador blocked the nation's stock exchange in an escalation of protests to demand a recount of the July 2 election.

Hundreds of demonstrators, amid light rain, waved flags and chanted ``ballot by ballot'' as they obstructed the entrance to the exchange and to an adjacent building where companies including Bank of America Corp. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. have offices. All trading on the exchange is electronic and operations weren't affected, said spokesman Guillermo Medina.

Lopez Obrador is stepping up street protests as the electoral tribunal prepares to rule on his request for a full review of the vote, which he says was marred by fraud. A blockade since July 30 of Mexico City's main avenue has turned the eight-lane boulevard into a tent city, disrupting traffic and causing shops and hotels in the area to lose about $23 million a day.

``This is part of our civil resistance plan,'' said Martin Zepeda, 39, who joined the protest outside the exchange. ``We want a ballot by ballot recount,'' said Zepeda, a member of Lopez Obrador's Party of the Democratic Revolution who was elected federal deputy in the July 2 vote.

[...]

The electoral court ``had better order a vote by vote recount or else we plan to paralyze the country, block the northern border, take airports and highways,'' said Amado Zepeda, whose last job in Zacatecas was as a street vendor.

[Ban Hammer 13,676]

can we send al gore to monitor the recount?

Almost one month later...

Mexico's Stock Exchange Blockaded by Lopez Obrador

Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Supporters of Mexican presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador blocked the nation's stock exchange in an escalation of protests to demand a recount of the July 2 election.

Hundreds of demonstrators, amid light rain, waved flags and chanted ``ballot by ballot'' as they obstructed the entrance to the exchange and to an adjacent building where companies including Bank of America Corp. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. have offices. All trading on the exchange is electronic and operations weren't affected, said spokesman Guillermo Medina.

Lopez Obrador is stepping up street protests as the electoral tribunal prepares to rule on his request for a full review of the vote, which he says was marred by fraud. A blockade since July 30 of Mexico City's main avenue has turned the eight-lane boulevard into a tent city, disrupting traffic and causing shops and hotels in the area to lose about $23 million a day.

``This is part of our civil resistance plan,'' said Martin Zepeda, 39, who joined the protest outside the exchange. ``We want a ballot by ballot recount,'' said Zepeda, a member of Lopez Obrador's Party of the Democratic Revolution who was elected federal deputy in the July 2 vote.

[...]

The electoral court ``had better order a vote by vote recount or else we plan to paralyze the country, block the northern border, take airports and highways,'' said Amado Zepeda, whose last job in Zacatecas was as a street vendor.

[Traviesa 0]

or else we plan to paralyze the country, block the northern border, take airports and highways,'' said Amado Zepeda, whose last job in Zacatecas was as a street vendor.

I don't think so buddy. Wouldn't it just figure. They better get this sorted out by next Friday.

[Traviesa 0]

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

What happens next Friday?

[Traviesa 0]

What happens next Friday?

I'm flying to Mexico to get married.

[Bootylicious!! 2]

I just can't believe this man is acting like such a big baby. I mean grow up! You lost! Move on. It also amazes me that the current government it letting this go on.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

What happens next Friday?

I'm flying to Mexico to get married.

Oh. Well good luck and congrats I am sure everything will be fine

[Traviesa 0]

What happens next Friday?

I'm flying to Mexico to get married.

Oh. Well good luck and congrats I am sure everything will be fine

Thanks, but it doesn't really look like everything's going to be fine. Evidently, I'm a "gringo" thinking kind of person to be worried about it, or so I've been told, but honestly, with the luck we've had up to this point, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if this got screwed up too. As for this Obrador guy, I'm kind of glad he's inspiring people to stand up for what they believe in. It's about time Mexicans started doing that. Just wish they weren't doing it now.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

What happens next Friday?

I'm flying to Mexico to get married.

Oh. Well good luck and congrats I am sure everything will be fine

Thanks, but it doesn't really look like everything's going to be fine. Evidently, I'm a "gringo" thinking kind of person to be worried about it, or so I've been told, but honestly, with the luck we've had up to this point, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if this got screwed up too. As for this Obrador guy, I'm kind of glad he's inspiring people to stand up for what they believe in. It's about time Mexicans started doing that. Just wish they weren't doing it now.

You will get married. Even if it doesn't happen the way you envisioned it... lots of things in life don't. But you will be married and I want to congratulate you for that

[Traviesa 0]

What happens next Friday?

I'm flying to Mexico to get married.

Oh. Well good luck and congrats I am sure everything will be fine

Thanks, but it doesn't really look like everything's going to be fine. Evidently, I'm a "gringo" thinking kind of person to be worried about it, or so I've been told, but honestly, with the luck we've had up to this point, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if this got screwed up too. As for this Obrador guy, I'm kind of glad he's inspiring people to stand up for what they believe in. It's about time Mexicans started doing that. Just wish they weren't doing it now.

You will get married. Even if it doesn't happen the way you envisioned it... lots of things in life don't. But you will be married and I want to congratulate you for that

This isn't the way I envisioned it. It's a civil ceremony in Mexico. I guess that was too much to ask for though. Thanks for the congrats.