Obama Averages 63% Approval in His First Quarter

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

April 17, 2009

Obama Averages 63% Approval in His First Quarter

Highest first-quarter average since 1977

by Jeffrey M. JonesPRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama's first quarter in office concludes on Sunday, and during this early stage of his presidency he has averaged a solid 63% job approval, reaching as high as 69% in the initial days of his presidency and falling as low as 59% on a few occasions.

Obama's 63% first-quarter average matches the historical average of 63% for elected presidents' first quarters since 1953. However, it is the fourth highest for a newly elected president since that time, and the highest since Jimmy Carter's 69% in 1977. The historical first-quarter average includes two presidents whose scores exceeded 70% (John Kennedy's 74% and Dwight Eisenhower's 71%).

The average for all presidents' first quarters since World War II -- both presidents who were elected and those who took office after the death or resignation of their predecessors -- is slightly higher, at 66%. Harry Truman (87%) and Lyndon Johnson (76%) are two presidents who came into office mid-term and had very high initial approval ratings.

From a broader historical perspective, Obama's 63% quarterly average is well above the historical norm for all approval ratings, regardless of presidential quarter. It ranks in the 74th percentile of all presidential quarters since 1945, and is significantly better than the 54% average rating for all presidential quarters.

Looking Ahead

Obama's job approval rating has not shown much variation to date, generally holding steady in the low 60% range. While such presidential "honeymoons" do not last forever, to the extent history is a guide, Obama's healthy ratings can be expected to persist for at least another quarter.

Six of the last 11 presidents saw essentially no change in their approval ratings from the first to the second quarter in office. The ones who did see significant movement tended to start out with ratings that were higher (Truman and Carter) or lower (George H.W. Bush) than the norm.

Gerald Ford and Bill Clinton both saw rather abrupt ends to their honeymoons. Ford's controversial pardon of Nixon sent his approval ratings plummeting. An early September 1974 poll (conducted mostly before Ford pardoned Nixon on Sept. 8) measured a 66% approval rating for Ford. By the next poll, Ford's approval rating was down to 50%, and continued declining thereafter.

Clinton's 55% first-quarter average is the lowest for a recent president, and, after a number of controversial actions, his approval rating sank to 44% in his second quarter in office.

There is not a typical pattern as to when honeymoons end. Several presidents who did not show declining approval ratings in their second quarter in office did so by their third quarter, but others' ratings held steady for the better part of their first year. Still others, including both Bushes, saw increases in their approval ratings after international crises.

Implications

President Obama is off to a solid start as president, as far as his job approval ratings are concerned. His 63% first-quarter average is the better than the averages of each of his four predecessors, and the fourth best since 1953. Perhaps the biggest legislative accomplishment of his first quarter has been the passage of the economic stimulus bill. In the second quarter, Congress will likely begin work in earnest on his proposed budget. How that process plays out, whether the economy shows definite signs of improvement, and how well Obama deals with ongoing international challenges, will determine whether his ratings stay strong or begin to show decline.

Survey Methods

Results are based on aggregated telephone interviews with approximately 500 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted each day from Jan. 21-April 15, 2009, as part of Gallup Poll Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/117598/Obama-Av...st-Quarter.aspx

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Lies, all lies! I know because this person I know who works at a call center hates Obama.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Lies, all lies! I know because this person I know who works at a call center hates Obama.

You know somebody in the Philippines?

[chri'stina 190]

Lies, all lies! I know because this person I know who works at a call center hates Obama.

I know someone who trains people (to hate Obama) at call centers.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

I'm guessing those 63% don't watch Fox News or they're immune to the propaganda.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

I'm guessing those 63% don't watch Fox News or they're immune to the propaganda.

I was 9 when Indira Gandhi was assassinated, I still remember an "expert" on state-run TV in India (Doordarshan) implying the CIA was involved in the hit. I still remember the reaction from my family members to that... they laughed. Everyone laughed. They thought it was funny. In the years following, I realized one thing... people recognize propaganda. Even if they're uneducated and otherwise unsophisticated. All it takes is common sense and most people have plenty of it.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

I'm guessing those 63% don't watch Fox News or they're immune to the propaganda.

I was 9 when Indira Gandhi was assassinated, I still remember an "expert" on state-run TV in India (Doordarshan) implying the CIA was involved in the hit. I still remember the reaction from my family members to that... they laughed. Everyone laughed. They thought it was funny. In the years following, I realized one thing... people recognize propaganda. Even if they're uneducated and otherwise unsophisticated. All it takes is common sense and most people have plenty of it.

Oh, I hope that's true.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

IMO the only propaganda people believe is the propaganda they want to believe.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

IMO the only propaganda people believe is the propaganda they want to believe.

I read a book back in college, called The Hidden Persuaders. It was written awhile ago, but pretty startling how influenced people can be if the persuading is buried or less obvious.

Edited April 18, 2009 by Col. 'Bat' Guano

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

I'll buy that.

FNC is pretty blatant though.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

I'm guessing those 63% don't watch Fox News or they're immune to the propaganda.

I was 9 when Indira Gandhi was assassinated, I still remember an "expert" on state-run TV in India (Doordarshan) implying the CIA was involved in the hit. I still remember the reaction from my family members to that... they laughed. Everyone laughed. They thought it was funny. In the years following, I realized one thing... people recognize propaganda. Even if they're uneducated and otherwise unsophisticated. All it takes is common sense and most people have plenty of it.

I didn't post a Rasmussen poll I read earlier. That poll states that only about 15% of American have strongly held political views. Of those, Democrats supported Obama by 90% and Republicans by 25%. The remaining 85% are more inclined to give the new President the benefit of the doubt, at least in the first six months, as the Gallup article would suggest. What is even more interesting, is that the same 85% in the non-political class, completely mistrust the 15% in the political class, by a wide margin. That would suggest most people do not want to be told what to think, by either side.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

I'm guessing those 63% don't watch Fox News or they're immune to the propaganda.

I was 9 when Indira Gandhi was assassinated, I still remember an "expert" on state-run TV in India (Doordarshan) implying the CIA was involved in the hit. I still remember the reaction from my family members to that... they laughed. Everyone laughed. They thought it was funny. In the years following, I realized one thing... people recognize propaganda. Even if they're uneducated and otherwise unsophisticated. All it takes is common sense and most people have plenty of it.

I didn't post a Rasmussen poll I read earlier. That poll states that only about 15% of American have strongly held political views. Of those, Democrats supported Obama by 90% and Republicans by 25%. The remaining 85% are more inclined to give the new President the benefit of the doubt, at least in the first six months, as the Gallup article would suggest. What is even more interesting, is that the same 85% in the non-political class, completely mistrust the 15% in the political class, by a wide margin. That would suggest most people do not want to be told what to think, by either side.

Thank God...seriously. Props to the American People.

[Ban Hammer 13,346]

maybe that 63% does not know about this in bold..........

Obama says he'll cut dozens of wasteful programs

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Barack Obama said on Saturday he would soon announce the elimination of dozens of wasteful or ineffective government programs as part of a broad effort to restore fiscal accountability to the federal budget.

Obama, speaking in his weekly radio address, said he would use his first full Cabinet meeting on Monday to ask department and agency heads for specific proposals for trimming their budgets.

He named two new officials as part of a team of management, technology and budget experts that will drive the process of trimming the fat and waste from government spending.

"As surely as our future depends on building a new energy economy, controlling healthcare costs and ensuring that our kids are once again the best educated in the world, it also depends on restoring a sense of responsibility and accountability to our federal budget," Obama said.

"Without significant change to steer away from ever-expanding deficits and debt, we are on an unsustainable course," he added.

The United States posted a record $956.8 billion budget deficit for the first half of fiscal 2009, more than three times the shortfall of a year ago, the Treasury Department reported earlier this month.

Much of the deficit was caused by spending on financial and economic rescue programs aimed at propping up companies whose collapse could worsen the global recession.

Obama said Cabinet officials already had begun cutting back unnecessary expenditures, including a consulting contract to create new seals and logos that cost Department of Homeland Security $3 million since 2003.

The president also commended Defense Secretary Robert Gates' project to reform defense contracting procedures to eliminate what he said were hundreds of billions of dollars in wasteful spending and cost overruns.

"If we're to going to rebuild our economy on a solid foundation, we need to change the way we do business in Washington," Obama said. "We need to restore the American people's confidence in their government -- that it is on their side, spending their money wisely, to meet their families' needs."

He named Jeffrey Zients, a management consultant and entrepreneur, to act as chief performance office with the official title of deputy director for management of the Office of Management and Budget.

Zients is a director of Sirius XM Radio and served as chief executive of The Advisory Board Company.

His job will be to streamline processes, cut costs and find best practices throughout the government, Obama said.

He named Aneesh Chopra, the secretary of technology for the state of Virginia, to be the U.S. chief technology officer charged with promoting technological innovation.

link

[natty bumppo 297]

"If we're to going to rebuild our economy on a solid foundation, we need to change the way we do business in Washington," Obama said. "We need to restore the American people's confidence in their government -- that it is on their side, spending their money wisely, to meet their families' needs."

He named Jeffrey Zients, a management consultant and entrepreneur, to act as chief performance office with the official title of deputy director for management of the Office of Management and Budget.

Zients is a director of Sirius XM Radio and served as chief executive of The Advisory Board Company.

His job will be to streamline processes, cut costs and find best practices throughout the government, Obama said.

He named Aneesh Chopra, the secretary of technology for the state of Virginia, to be the U.S. chief technology officer charged with promoting technological innovation.

link

Obama named a guy who was a director of a company that closed yesterday at .50¢ a share ... and this company received an influx of cash during the past few months from Liberty Media

Why not appoint someone who at least is from a company that is more than a penny stock?

Edited April 18, 2009 by Natty Bumppo

[DEDixon 39]

I like Obama, but people seem to be looking at Obama as the guy that will fix it all. After he doesn't measure up (it might take 2 terms for people to realize this), his record won't look too good.

What I mean is that, Obama has come into office claiming that he can easily fix things that have been problems for decades. No president has fixed the tax code, no president has fixed social security, no president has fix medicare, no president has made the whole world love the USA, no president has fixed health care, no president has fixed education..... BUT, Obama has made statements as if all of these things are easy to fix.

I feel he has proclaimed himself the "fixer" more than any other new president, because even after getting into office, he still is riding on this notion that he can fix it all. People are waiting patiently, because of the economy, but after the economy turns around, he better find a way to put up or shut up.

My feeling is that his rating will eventually suffer greatly, because he won't fix anything, just like the rest of the presidents we have had.

The Republicans know that the only way to fix a lot of what's perceived wrong is to spend, spend, spend and in order to spend, one must raise taxes. I think this is why the Republicans are promoting the teabag parties. They are getting ready to battle proposed tax increases. They don't think Obama can do anything without raising taxes and they don't trust that he won't try to raise taxes on people making less than 250,000, as he said he would not.

Only time will tell, it always does.