U.S. Intel agencies recognize climate change as major factor

[symbiosis 0]

WASHINGTON (AP) - Global warming could be a boon to Russia, a

European country could be overrun by organized crime and the U.S.

and its dollar could further decline in importance during the next

two decades, says a U.S. intelligence report with predictions for

the world in 2025.

The report, Global Trends 2025, is published every four years by

the National Intelligence Council to give U.S. leaders insight into

looming problems and opportunities.

The report says the warming earth will extend Russia and

Canada's growing season and ease their access to northern oil

fields, strengthening their economies. But Russia's potential

emergence as a world power may be clouded by lagging investment in

its energy sector, persistent crime and government corruption, the

report says.

Analysts also warn that the same kind of organized crime

plaguing Russia could eventually take over the government of an

Eastern or Central European country. The report is silent on which

one.

It also says countries in Africa and South Asia may find

themselves unstable and ungoverned, as state regimes collapse or

wither away under security problems and water and food shortages

brought about by climate change and a population increase of 1.4

billion.

The potential for conflict will be greater in 2025 than it is

now, as the world's population competes for declining and shifting

food, water and energy resources.

Despite a more precarious world situation, the report also says

al-Qaida's terrorist franchise could decay "sooner than people

think." It cites its growing unpopularity in the Muslim world,

where it kills most of its victims.

"The prospect that al-Qaida will be among the small number of

groups able to transcend the generational timeline is not high,

given its harsh ideology, unachievable strategic objectives and

inability to become a mass movement," the report states.

The report forecasts a geopolitical rise in non-Arab Muslim

states outside of the Middle East, including Turkey and Indonesia,

and says Iran could also be a central player in a new world order

if it sheds its theocracy.

The report, a year in the making, also suggests the world may

complete its move away from its dependence on oil, and that the

U.S. dollar, while remaining important, will decline to "first

among equals" among other national currencies.

U.S. global power also will likely decline, as Americans'

concerns about putting resources into solving domestic problems may

cause the United States to pull resources from foreign and global

problems.