The K-3 Math of VSC

[cjgator 2]

For all of my friends who I've been chatting with, and who are just as blown away by what's going on (or not going on) at VSC: These are the VSC posted processing time reports, going back to the report they released on July 15 of this year. I got these from a USCIS, and a number of other immigration websites, including a couple of immigration attorneys:

For an I-129F K3..

July 15, 2008 Report: January 17, 2008

Aug. 15, 2008 Report: January 02, 2008

Sept 15, 2008 Report: February 01, 2008

Oct. 19, 2008 Report: 6 months

Nov. 19, 2008 Report: March 07, 2008

Their hocus-pocus formulas that they use to estimate processing dates/times indicate that, in the past 124 days (4 months, 4 days), they have moved ahead 50 days in applications. That trend would mean that, to move ahead one day on the USCIS calendar, you have to move ahead 2.48 days in the "real world". If you use that ratio to move forward, it means we would probably see an April 1 date on their processing times in about 62 days from now. Basically, Mid-January 09.

Enough to make one sick.

Keep hanging on..

CJ-G

[Y's_habibitk 2]

ya! I was thinking of this today.. last month i was outside processing times. In a matter of one day, i am now in line for another 2 months?!!

Its just sad. Thats all i have.

[Chuck and Grace 0]

For all of my friends who I've been chatting with, and who are just as blown away by what's going on (or not going on) at VSC: These are the VSC posted processing time reports, going back to the report they released on July 15 of this year. I got these from a USCIS, and a number of other immigration websites, including a couple of immigration attorneys:

For an I-129F K3..

July 15, 2008 Report: January 17, 2008

Aug. 15, 2008 Report: January 02, 2008

Sept 15, 2008 Report: February 01, 2008

Oct. 19, 2008 Report: 6 months

Nov. 19, 2008 Report: March 07, 2008

Their hocus-pocus formulas that they use to estimate processing dates/times indicate that, in the past 124 days (4 months, 4 days), they have moved ahead 50 days in applications. That trend would mean that, to move ahead one day on the USCIS calendar, you have to move ahead 2.48 days in the "real world". If you use that ratio to move forward, it means we would probably see an April 1 date on their processing times in about 62 days from now. Basically, Mid-January 09.

Enough to make one sick.

Keep hanging on..

CJ-G

I assume most all of us are not experts in this as this is probably our first time through the process (and I assume everyone would agree the last), but it seems to me the data is meaningless anyway. Looking at Igor's list, VSC is processing it looks like on average about 20 per week over the last 3 months or so. Of course not everyone they are processing is on VJ, so who knows how many actually.

Maybe, processing dates are based on what they are actually working on at the time. If an RFE is sent out, maybe it is put aside until an answer is received. Some people respond to an RFE in a day or so, some in a month or so. So who knows, maybe the date you keep seeing changing is the oldest date for a file they are currently working on; but certainly people in June and July are already starting to receive NOA 2's.

Hang in there. Everyone says things slow down around the holidays, but it seems the month of December 2007 was actually pretty good for VSC last year. Maybe it will be again.

[prince+angel 3]

if your calculations are correct, this completely turns my stomach & not in a good way

[cjgator 2]

I am curious. What was your specific expedite request? (conditions)

For all of my friends who I've been chatting with, and who are just as blown away by what's going on (or not going on) at VSC: These are the VSC posted processing time reports, going back to the report they released on July 15 of this year. I got these from a USCIS, and a number of other immigration websites, including a couple of immigration attorneys:

For an I-129F K3..

July 15, 2008 Report: January 17, 2008

Aug. 15, 2008 Report: January 02, 2008

Sept 15, 2008 Report: February 01, 2008

Oct. 19, 2008 Report: 6 months

Nov. 19, 2008 Report: March 07, 2008

Their hocus-pocus formulas that they use to estimate processing dates/times indicate that, in the past 124 days (4 months, 4 days), they have moved ahead 50 days in applications. That trend would mean that, to move ahead one day on the USCIS calendar, you have to move ahead 2.48 days in the "real world". If you use that ratio to move forward, it means we would probably see an April 1 date on their processing times in about 62 days from now. Basically, Mid-January 09.

Enough to make one sick.

Keep hanging on..

CJ-G

I assume most all of us are not experts in this as this is probably our first time through the process (and I assume everyone would agree the last), but it seems to me the data is meaningless anyway. Looking at Igor's list, VSC is processing it looks like on average about 20 per week over the last 3 months or so. Of course not everyone they are processing is on VJ, so who knows how many actually.

Maybe, processing dates are based on what they are actually working on at the time. If an RFE is sent out, maybe it is put aside until an answer is received. Some people respond to an RFE in a day or so, some in a month or so. So who knows, maybe the date you keep seeing changing is the oldest date for a file they are currently working on; but certainly people in June and July are already starting to receive NOA 2's.

Hang in there. Everyone says things slow down around the holidays, but it seems the month of December 2007 was actually pretty good for VSC last year. Maybe it will be again.

[cjgator 2]

One more thing. I like Igor's List too. Igor's list actually supports, within a pretty tight margin, the estimate I provided at the beginning of this thread. I have kept track of where I am in the K-3 queue on his list for a while now, and measured the "upward" movement in ranking over time (e.g. rate of change). Whether I use his list or my calculation, the timing both projections tend to indicate that my I-129F K-3 app, with an NOA-1 of 4/4, would likely be approved sometime in early to mid January.

Igor's list is a VERY small representative sample of the total USCIS population of K1's and K3's, but it is the best I've seen at consistently tracking movement, along with V-J's and there are few people on here who have some good ones also.

Believe me, I hate these facts as much as anyone else. I'm at 7 and a half months past my NOA-1 on the I-129F. But, I'm just not seeing how, without some major trend breaker, they get heavily into the April people before the first of the year. The numbers just do not point to it.

If someone else has something that can counter this, please, I would be very pleased to know how wrong I am. My wife would too.

CJ-G

For all of my friends who I've been chatting with, and who are just as blown away by what's going on (or not going on) at VSC: These are the VSC posted processing time reports, going back to the report they released on July 15 of this year. I got these from a USCIS, and a number of other immigration websites, including a couple of immigration attorneys:

For an I-129F K3..

July 15, 2008 Report: January 17, 2008

Aug. 15, 2008 Report: January 02, 2008

Sept 15, 2008 Report: February 01, 2008

Oct. 19, 2008 Report: 6 months

Nov. 19, 2008 Report: March 07, 2008

Their hocus-pocus formulas that they use to estimate processing dates/times indicate that, in the past 124 days (4 months, 4 days), they have moved ahead 50 days in applications. That trend would mean that, to move ahead one day on the USCIS calendar, you have to move ahead 2.48 days in the "real world". If you use that ratio to move forward, it means we would probably see an April 1 date on their processing times in about 62 days from now. Basically, Mid-January 09.

Enough to make one sick.

Keep hanging on..

CJ-G

I assume most all of us are not experts in this as this is probably our first time through the process (and I assume everyone would agree the last), but it seems to me the data is meaningless anyway. Looking at Igor's list, VSC is processing it looks like on average about 20 per week over the last 3 months or so. Of course not everyone they are processing is on VJ, so who knows how many actually.

Maybe, processing dates are based on what they are actually working on at the time. If an RFE is sent out, maybe it is put aside until an answer is received. Some people respond to an RFE in a day or so, some in a month or so. So who knows, maybe the date you keep seeing changing is the oldest date for a file they are currently working on; but certainly people in June and July are already starting to receive NOA 2's.

Hang in there. Everyone says things slow down around the holidays, but it seems the month of December 2007 was actually pretty good for VSC last year. Maybe it will be again.

[Chuck and Grace 0]

I am curious. What was your specific expedite request? (conditions)

Medical - problem found early in pregnancy. I would rather wait than face the problem, but I am hoping the doctors here are better and can help.

[notime4haterz 0]

My I-130 was filed in April, and I was estimating that with all the holiday stuff, that if I'm lucky, and have no RFE or security name checks, etc, that I would hear back from USCIS sometime in January 2009.

And I realize now that if we filed the K-3 and the I-130 together, it's very very likely they will just approve both and the K-3 was a big waste anyway....you know, I changed my mind ...they should just get rid of K-3, since it's proven to be completely useless in getting them here faster...wasn't that the point of the K-3? To not let families have to be apart for long????

[cmnb 0]

For all of my friends who I've been chatting with, and who are just as blown away by what's going on (or not going on) at VSC: These are the VSC posted processing time reports, going back to the report they released on July 15 of this year. I got these from a USCIS, and a number of other immigration websites, including a couple of immigration attorneys:

For an I-129F K3..

July 15, 2008 Report: January 17, 2008

Aug. 15, 2008 Report: January 02, 2008

Sept 15, 2008 Report: February 01, 2008

Oct. 19, 2008 Report: 6 months

Nov. 19, 2008 Report: March 07, 2008

Their hocus-pocus formulas that they use to estimate processing dates/times indicate that, in the past 124 days (4 months, 4 days), they have moved ahead 50 days in applications. That trend would mean that, to move ahead one day on the USCIS calendar, you have to move ahead 2.48 days in the "real world". If you use that ratio to move forward, it means we would probably see an April 1 date on their processing times in about 62 days from now. Basically, Mid-January 09.

Enough to make one sick.

Keep hanging on..

CJ-G

a big WOW!!!!!!!!

do you happen to have the numbers for standalone I-130 as well?

[notime4haterz 0]

my timeline calculator calculated Feb 2009. My NOA1 is April 23, 2008. Your calculation is the same as the VJ timeline calculator!

it just makes me wanna

[cjgator 2]

cm I will run them tomorrow for ya. Got back late tonight with my son. Keep looking at the thread, I'll post more probably by about 1 or 2 eastern time tomorrow. Hang in there.

CJ-G

For all of my friends who I've been chatting with, and who are just as blown away by what's going on (or not going on) at VSC: These are the VSC posted processing time reports, going back to the report they released on July 15 of this year. I got these from a USCIS, and a number of other immigration websites, including a couple of immigration attorneys:

For an I-129F K3..

July 15, 2008 Report: January 17, 2008

Aug. 15, 2008 Report: January 02, 2008

Sept 15, 2008 Report: February 01, 2008

Oct. 19, 2008 Report: 6 months

Nov. 19, 2008 Report: March 07, 2008

Their hocus-pocus formulas that they use to estimate processing dates/times indicate that, in the past 124 days (4 months, 4 days), they have moved ahead 50 days in applications. That trend would mean that, to move ahead one day on the USCIS calendar, you have to move ahead 2.48 days in the "real world". If you use that ratio to move forward, it means we would probably see an April 1 date on their processing times in about 62 days from now. Basically, Mid-January 09.

Enough to make one sick.

Keep hanging on..

CJ-G

a big WOW!!!!!!!!

do you happen to have the numbers for standalone I-130 as well?

Narnia hang in there, dear. I'm hatin' it for you just as much as for me. You're a warrior on this website, I enjoy your posts a lot. They keep me sane (sort of).

CJ-G

my timeline calculator calculated Feb 2009. My NOA1 is April 23, 2008. Your calculation is the same as the VJ timeline calculator!

it just makes me wanna

[notime4haterz 0]

if we can't

and

and

together, than who can we turn to??? LOOOL I'm happy I can help you stay (sort of) sane!

[sn0224 0]

For an I-129F K3..

July 15, 2008 Report: January 17, 2008

Aug. 15, 2008 Report: January 02, 2008

Sept 15, 2008 Report: February 01, 2008

Oct. 19, 2008 Report: 6 months

Nov. 19, 2008 Report: March 07, 2008

CJ-G, I understand the K3 processing dates really don't make any sense, but if you look at the I130 processing dates then you can make some sense out of it. It seems that they are working on the I130’s at faster pace or just that they have way too many K-3’s petitions than I130.

These are the processing dates for I130:

June 15 = July 02, 2007

July 15= September 03, 2007

August 15 = September 03, 2007

September 15 = November 26, 2007

October 19 = February 26, 2008

November 19 = February 26, 2008

According to these dates, VSC has processed 240 days of petitions in 157 days.

At this rate, by next update (Dec. 19th) the I130 processing date should be April 11, 2008.

I filed K-3 after I130 so my wife could be he here early, but it seems that I130 is going to be processed before K-3. Actually, that would be better for us. We don’t have to do all that adjustment of status paper work.

My receipt dates:

I130 – 02/14/2008

I129 – 03/11/2008

Hopefully, I will get some good news soon.

- Ahsan

[cjgator 2]

I don't see how looking at the I-130 processing dates explains anything: For the last several months, the I-130 processing dates have lagged at least a month, sometimes more, behind the K-3, and everyone who is looking for a K-3 in the system also has a pending I-130 too. The only difference is the K-3 people also submiited an I-129 F too. The LIFE act specifically established the creation of the K-3 visa so that spouses could be re-joined in the US while waiting for the foreign spouse's I-130 review to be complete.

What is obvious is that most people who are getting their I-129F approved for the K-3 are also getting the I-130 approved at the same time - which in theory is great, but if they are reviewing the I-129F's and I-130's of an applicant at the same time in order to give simultaneous approvals, again, as I say, it defeats the whole purpose of the K-3.

And, nothing about the differences between I-129F and I-130, K-1 or K-3, explains why the h*ll it takes VSC twice as long to process an identical document as CSC.

Sorry, I know you're trying to help, no hard feelings, but again, I think this comes down to an issue of incompetence poor management at VSC. I'd give my right arm to have my application at California. Of course, if my application was at California, my wife would have been here by now.

CJ-G

For an I-129F K3..

July 15, 2008 Report: January 17, 2008

Aug. 15, 2008 Report: January 02, 2008

Sept 15, 2008 Report: February 01, 2008

Oct. 19, 2008 Report: 6 months

Nov. 19, 2008 Report: March 07, 2008

CJ-G, I understand the K3 processing dates really don't make any sense, but if you look at the I130 processing dates then you can make some sense out of it. It seems that they are working on the I130’s at faster pace or just that they have way too many K-3’s petitions than I130.

These are the processing dates for I130:

June 15 = July 02, 2007

July 15= September 03, 2007

August 15 = September 03, 2007

September 15 = November 26, 2007

October 19 = February 26, 2008

November 19 = February 26, 2008

According to these dates, VSC has processed 240 days of petitions in 157 days.

At this rate, by next update (Dec. 19th) the I130 processing date should be April 11, 2008.

I filed K-3 after I130 so my wife could be he here early, but it seems that I130 is going to be processed before K-3. Actually, that would be better for us. We don’t have to do all that adjustment of status paper work.

My receipt dates:

I130 – 02/14/2008

I129 – 03/11/2008

Hopefully, I will get some good news soon.

- Ahsan

[sn0224 0]

I just got approved for my I130 and I129F

My receipt dates:

I130 – 02/14/2008 - Approved November 13, 2008

I129 – 03/11/2008 - Approved November 13, 2008