Don't mention the war 2

[Fischkoepfin 1]

This spells problems for the Washington "insiders" and their hopes of gaining the nomination. There is a lot of flip-flopping to be expected, and not just among democrats....

June 2, 2006

Political Memo

War Handicaps Senators in '08 White House Race

By ADAM NAGOURNEY

With Iraq looming yet again over an American presidential campaign, senators considering a White House race are at a disadvantage over governors who might run, forced to explain their votes — and in some cases, alter their views — on an increasingly unpopular war.

Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Democrat of New York, both prospective 2008 candidates, have encountered hecklers protesting their support for the Iraq war. Both responded with hints of recalibrations in the way they discussed the issue, with Mrs. Clinton telling Democrats who nominated her on Wednesday for a second term to "stand with me" in pressing the White House and Iraqis to develop a plan that would permit American troops to come home.

Two other prospective Democratic presidential candidates, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts and former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, say they regret voting for the war. Both have called for setting a deadline to withdraw American troops, a position that analysts say enjoys strong support among Democrats who are active in primaries and who were wary of both men for their pro-war votes in 2004.

"I think I was wrong to vote for the war," Mr. Edwards said in an interview. "Bush made this mess that we are in now. My view is what America needs to do now is make it clear that we are going to get out."

By contrast, governors are finding considerable maneuvering room when it comes to Iraq. And they are taking advantage of it for now, while realizing that their lack of foreign policy experience is a disadvantage in an election that could focus on international affairs.

Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa, a Democrat, declined to say in an interview how he would have voted on the war.

"I'm not going to get into that; this isn't about what happened in the past," Mr. Vilsack said. "If we're looking at the elections of 2006 and 2008, I think it's important to look to the future and learn from whatever mistakes we made in the past."

Mark Warner, a former Virginia governor and another likely Democratic presidential contender, said he did not support setting a deadline for troop withdrawal.

"We have been put in this extraordinarily difficult situation," Mr. Warner said. "My sense is going out without a plan is just as bad as going in without a plan. So I have not been one of those people who say that come heck or high water, we are going to leave by a fixed date."

Mr. Warner spoke empathetically of his potential rivals who as senators voted for the war.

"I don't think any U.S. senator, regardless of party, if they had known there weren't W.M.D., that we were going to get selected leaks, I don't think anybody would have voted for it," he said. "Second-guessing people who made a valiant attempt at judgment is not where I am at."

On the Republican side, Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts applauded the invasion and said the United States should stay until the situation was settled. But he was critical of Bush administration management of Iraq, including the lack of sufficient troops to help secure the country to and the Abu Ghraib torture scandal.

"As the president and Tony Blair said, knowing what we know today, would we have managed the postconflict effort differently?" Mr. Romney said, referring to the British prime minister. "Of course."

Asked if he had voiced those concerns before public opinion turned against the war, and Mr. Bush himself acknowledged the shortcomings, Mr. Romney responded: "I haven't spoken out on this topic until relatively recently. I can't pull you quotes back from that time."

The prospective candidates are planning now as if the war will be as big an issue in 2008 as it was in 2004. If anything, the politics surrounding the war are likely to become more volatile with disclosures about alleged killings of Iraqi civilians by marines in Haditha, a case that has prompted comparisons with the My Lai massacre in the Vietnam War.

"I think it's going to get worse before it gets better," Mr. Kerry said in an interview.

As Mr. McCain saw when he was hooted down at a speech at the New School in New York, this issue could be a problem for candidates from both parties. Opposition to the war is no longer confined to Democrats; it is also on the rise among independents, who are the heart of Mr. McCain's appeal in a general election.

Both Mr. McCain and Mrs. Clinton have, to varying degrees, shifted their tone in talking about the war as they find themselves on the frontier of public opinion. Mr. McCain has given three speeches over two weeks affirming his support for the war, but he used conciliatory language as he noted its high costs and declared that "Americans should argue about this war."

When Mrs. Clinton was heckled by war protesters last week, she said that she stood by her support for the war, but added that she was beginning to see circumstances where the United States would be able to withdraw.

An adviser said this could prove to be the start of an evolution that would lead to Mrs. Clinton's increasingly distancing herself from the conflict.

Governors have historically had an advantage over members of Congress in presidential elections; no sitting member of Congress has been elected to the White House since John F. Kennedy in 1960. Some officials in both parties suggest that the 2008 contest could break that pattern if the debate focuses largely on the candidates' credentials to manage difficult foreign policy issues.

Some of the highest-profile governors and former governors who are thinking of running for president, including Mr. Romney and Mr. Vilsack, have in recent months made trips to Iraq.

Mr. Vilsack said in an interview that he thought it was a mistake to set a deadline for troop withdrawal, but that the United States had to make clear to Iraqis "how they should not rely on the United States."

Democratic analysts said Mr. Warner and Mr. Vilsack had more flexibility in resisting party members' pressure for withdrawal because they lacked the baggage of having supported the war in the first place.

On this issue, Mr. Warner and Mr. Vilsack are closer to some of the probable Republican candidates than to Mr. Kerry and Mr. Edwards. "We should stay in Iraq until the Iraqis are able to maintain their own security," Mr. Romney said, rejecting the idea for a deadline.

In calling for a deadline, Mr. Kerry said that having one would give Iraq the impetus to take responsibility for dealing with a war that had devolved into an unmanageable civil strife.

"There's nothing that our troops can do — nothing — to resolve the fundamental differences between the factions," he said.

Mr. Kerry derided Mr. McCain for his continued support for the war, saying: "He's dead wrong. I think it's the wrong war in the wrong place. We've paid a huge price for this in the Middle East."

Copyright 2006 The New York Times Company

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[iceyspots 0]

war is bad