Is It Just Me? Or do Philippines/China/Brazil Benes Take Longer?

[toma1 10]

I was just glancing quickly through the timelines... not sure if this is a pattern, but:

Do people that are filing for beneficiaries in Philippines, China and Brazil tend to take longer?

[pushbrk 12,883]

I was just glancing quickly through the timelines... not sure if this is a pattern, but:

Do people that are filing for beneficiaries in Philippines, China and Brazil tend to take longer?

Not sure about Brazil, but China and the PI, yes. They have the biggest numbers and are short of Consular staff.

[toma1 10]

Thanks, but I mean... do they take longer to get NOA2? (I looked at Vermont and it seems like a lot of the ones that get skipped are from those places).

[pushbrk 12,883]

Thanks, but I mean... do they take longer to get NOA2? (I looked at Vermont and it seems like a lot of the ones that get skipped are from those places).

Generally, no, the country of origin has little if any impact on petition adjudication times unless there are hits on a common name during security checks.

[toma1 10]

Thanks, but I mean... do they take longer to get NOA2? (I looked at Vermont and it seems like a lot of the ones that get skipped are from those places).

Generally, no, the country of origin has little if any impact on petition adjudication times unless there are hits on a common name during security checks.

Average processing times (NOA1->NOA2) for 2008 cases by country of origin for countries with n>=5...

(n=number of applicants with a beneficiary from that country)

(Of course, cases that have not been adjudicated are not included and this may skew the results.)

Country Days n

----------------------------

Mexico 65.13 8

Japan 67.00 5

S Africa 67.17 6

Moldova 69.00 5

Jamaica 72.78 9

Romania 73.00 5

UK 73.64 59

Thailand 74.57 14

Netherlnd 76.29 7

Peru 78.00 9

Canada 80.89 27

Russia 81.04 23

Philippines 84.31 91

Colombia 84.83 30

Vietnam 87.64 11

India 89.57 14

Ukraine 89.95 22

China 91.79 24

Germany 91.93 15

Morocco 96.56 9

Brazil 97.75 20

Australia 114.00 6

Edited October 23, 2008 by toma1

[pushbrk 12,883]

Thanks, but I mean... do they take longer to get NOA2? (I looked at Vermont and it seems like a lot of the ones that get skipped are from those places).

Generally, no, the country of origin has little if any impact on petition adjudication times unless there are hits on a common name during security checks.

Average processing times (NOA1->NOA2) for 2008 cases by country of origin for countries with n>=5...

(n=number of applicants with a beneficiary from that country)

(Of course, cases that have not been adjudicated are not included and this may skew the results.)

Country Days n

----------------------------

Mexico 65.13 8

Japan 67.00 5

S Africa 67.17 6

Moldova 69.00 5

Jamaica 72.78 9

Romania 73.00 5

UK 73.64 59

Thailand 74.57 14

Netherlnd 76.29 7

Peru 78.00 9

Canada 80.89 27

Russia 81.04 23

Philippines 84.31 91

Colombia 84.83 30

Vietnam 87.64 11

India 89.57 14

Ukraine 89.95 22

China 91.79 24

Germany 91.93 15

Morocco 96.56 9

Brazil 97.75 20

Australia 114.00 6

This is just a listing of results, not a statment of cause and effect. Google "coincidental correlation" the most common logical fallacy engaged in by humans.

[toma1 10]

This is just a listing of results, not a statment of cause and effect. Google "coincidental correlation" the most common logical fallacy engaged in by humans.

Haha, ya, I know the phenomenon. And you could be right... but deleting the countries with n<20 yields:

Country Days n

----------------------------

UK 73.64 59

Canada 80.89 27

Russia 81.04 23

Philippines 84.31 91

Colombia 84.83 30

Ukraine 89.95 22

China 91.79 24

Brazil 97.75 20

And that would appear to put the higher fraud countries toward the end of the list.

[justashooter 430]

all of these countries have high numbers of immigrant and non-immigrant visa petitioners, with the exception of columbia. GUZ in china is the busiest consulate in the world. no suprise the approval is delayed. big suprise it is not delayed longer. i would imagine embassys have target response timelines, and are ordered to adjust staff to comply.

[pushbrk 12,883]

all of these countries have high numbers of immigrant and non-immigrant visa petitioners, with the exception of columbia. GUZ in china is the busiest consulate in the world. no suprise the approval is delayed. big suprise it is not delayed longer. i would imagine embassys have target response timelines, and are ordered to adjust staff to comply.

I'm not able to see the context of the table quoted but understood these numbers referred to time at CSC or VSC. Perhaps the OP can clarify. If this is time in country from Consulate receipt to interview, then of course it is entirely workload related.

[pushbrk 12,883]

all of these countries have high numbers of immigrant and non-immigrant visa petitioners, with the exception of columbia. GUZ in china is the busiest consulate in the world. no suprise the approval is delayed. big suprise it is not delayed longer. i would imagine embassys have target response timelines, and are ordered to adjust staff to comply.

I'm not able to see the context of the table quoted but understood these numbers referred to time at CSC or VSC. Perhaps the OP can clarify. If this is time in country from Consulate receipt to interview, then of course it is entirely workload related.

Actually, the OP did clarify early on that he's referring to NOA1 to NOA2 timelines but I can't be sure the figures he's quoting are for that because I can't see the context.

[toma1 10]

all of these countries have high numbers of immigrant and non-immigrant visa petitioners, with the exception of columbia. GUZ in china is the busiest consulate in the world. no suprise the approval is delayed. big suprise it is not delayed longer. i would imagine embassys have target response timelines, and are ordered to adjust staff to comply.

NOPE... This is time from NOA1 -> NOA2 in VERMONT and has nothing to do with the local consulate.

Strange huh? I mean, it could be coincidental, but it is a strange coincidence if it is.

pushbrk:

I simply copied the data from the timelines using the following search into SPSS and told it to generate the means by country of beneficiary origin. I used 1 January - 30 June 2008 data.

http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/k1list...ll&dfile=No

Edited October 23, 2008 by toma1

[toma1 10]

This is just for Vermont. Now if I also did this for Cali and came up with similar results... hmmmm....

Edited October 23, 2008 by toma1

[BobandXiaomei 14]

This is just for Vermont. Now if I also did this for Cali and came up with similar results... hmmmm....

Waiting for the NOA2 was the worst part of the process for me (see my timeline). It was routed to CSC from TSC. At one time Vermont was very fast, I haven't updated myself with their stats of late.

It will come. Good Luck!

[Y's_habibitk 2]

I was just glancing quickly through the timelines... not sure if this is a pattern, but:

Do people that are filing for beneficiaries in Philippines, China and Brazil tend to take longer?

Add MENA countries to that list... (thats how it feels right now anyway heh heh)

[toma1 10]

I was just glancing quickly through the timelines... not sure if this is a pattern, but:

Do people that are filing for beneficiaries in Philippines, China and Brazil tend to take longer?

Add MENA countries to that list... (thats how it feels right now anyway heh heh)

You could be right, but there aren't enough from that area to do a projection.