Gallup: McCain closing in on Obama. Has Obama peaked too early?

[almaty 19]

he is having his cowgirl hit the airwaves for him

[HAL 9000 96]

An interesting question is how big the Bradley Effect will be in this election.

My guess - about 15%.

Hmmm. That big? That's bigger than in any other election where a Bradley effect has been alleged. Do you really think the USA has gotten lots more racist in the past few years?

Yes.

I think its like Autism. Is it a higher incidence or is it better reporting? In this particular case, I truly believe there is less numerical racism in this country. The past numbers have, however, apparently been substituted in some cases by more subtle forms that can be more easily be excused into other explanations that are prone to political subjectivity.

[AlHayatZween 2]

An interesting question is how big the Bradley Effect will be in this election.

My guess - about 15%.

Hmmm. That big? That's bigger than in any other election where a Bradley effect has been alleged. Do you really think the USA has gotten lots more racist in the past few years?

Yes.

I think its like Autism. Is it a higher incidence or is it better reporting? In this particular case, I truly believe there is less numerical racism in this country. The past numbers have, however, apparently been substituted in some cases by more subtle forms that can be more easily be excused into other explanations that are prone to political subjectivity.

Yes, and remember not only is Obama black, but he is a black Arab terrorist...

which not everyone feels comfortable with...

[rclouse 0]

McCain advisers say they're saving their best material for the last ten days of the race

The problem with that is with early voting going on (I've got my California ballot on my kitchen table) Obama is banking his seven to ten percent lead right now.

Yes, Nate Silver is partisan towards Obama. But, unlike Drudge & other wingnuts, he's not skewing his analysis either way. He's using the same techniques from his position with the Baseball Prospectus and applying them to election polls. He takes pains to be impartial towards his analysis, even giving Republican leaning polls like Zogby and Rasmussen more weight than perhaps they otherwise should. And here's the summary:

This election isn't nearly as close as the MSM wants it to be.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

The problem with that is with early voting going on (I've got my California ballot on my kitchen table) Obama is banking his seven to ten percent lead right now.

Could this be another example of the the McCain people running a 20th century campaign in the 21st century?

Early voting is certainly much more prevalent today than in the past. I early voted too, my ballot was in weeks ago.

[AnaAndDaniel 0]

The problem with that is with early voting going on (I've got my California ballot on my kitchen table) Obama is banking his seven to ten percent lead right now.

Could this be another example of the the McCain people running a 20th century campaign in the 21st century?

Early voting is certainly much more prevalent today than in the past. I early voted too, my ballot was in weeks ago.

my ballot should be in this sat. not even close over here in Cali. McSame is not wanted.

Daniel

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Steady, steady. McDone isn't catching up. He's battling in states that went red in 00 and 04. He's not competitive in those that were blue.

[justashooter 430]

anybody who has watched two or three elections closely knows that the early polls favour democrats by 5-15%. the pollsters bring them closer to reality in the days running up to the election so that they do not entirely loose credibility, claiming a "sudden shift" that never really occured. mccain wins this one in the popular by 5-6%, and electoral fairly closely, even without the nullification of the acorn illegal/dead/felon/somebodyelseshowedupbecausetheycould/somebodyvotedseventeentimes vote.

[villaspurs 65]

This whole Acorns thing is smoke and mirrors. As has rightfully been pointed out, Acorns was defrauded--they paid for registrations that turned out to be fake. That's the risk of paying per registration (which is a bipartisan approach to voter registration). Beyond that, how do you think these people are going to vote on election day??? Fake registration is meaningless. It only matters if they try to vote at the polls.

[nowhereman 1]

Some polls have Obama up by as much as 13%... but don't underestimate the Republican's ability to steal an election. Obama needs to stay on the offensive & not give McCain a chance to catch up.

[almaty 19]

i agree brother nowhereman