Global Warming Is Making Hurricanes Fiercer, and the Worst is Yet to Come

[Ban Hammer 13,352]

Funny, I read a while back that GW was going to make hurricanes less fierce. I wish they would make up their minds. Oh wait, whatever the current weather is always lines up with the fallacy of GW. Sorry, I forgot.

Link? I'd love to read what you read. The rest is as usual, not understanding the difference between natural and artificial contributors to phenomena.

You need to keep up on the "consensus" brother.

Warming May Reduce Hurricane Landfalls, Study Says

Seth Borenstein,

AP Science Writer

Associated Press

January 23, 2008

Contrary to many previous reports, global warming could reduce the number of hurricanes that strike the United States, according to a new study.

The work is the latest in a contentious scientific debate over how human-induced global warming might affect the intensity and frequency of hurricanes.

In the study, researchers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Miami in Florida link warming oceans to increased vertical wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean near the United States.

Wind shear—a change in upper-level wind speed or direction—makes it hard for hurricanes to form, strengthen, and stay active.

With every degree Celsius that the oceans warm, the wind shear increases by up to 10 miles (16 kilometers) an hour, said lead study author Chunzai Wang, a physical oceanographer at NOAA.

So that means "global warming may decrease the likelihood of hurricanes making landfall in the United States," according to the study authors.

Global Effects

The NOAA findings support results released last April in which a suit of climate models also predicted an increase in wind shear due to warming.

The new study is based on observations instead of computer models, Wang noted.

Observations made between 1854 to 2006 show that sea-surface temperatures are rising globally, his team says, with significant warming in the tropical regions of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans.

Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans have global effects, much like the Pacific weather phenomenon known as El Niño does, Wang said.

Warming in those regions will increase wind shear in the areas of the Atlantic where hurricanes form.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/20...hurricanes.html

Let me know when those findings (interesting indeed) become 'consensus.'

So what this statistical analysis 'found' was that wind shear (think: upwards wind) would act like a wall against upcoming hurricanes? Cool. I wonder if they could also dig up statistics about how this increased wind shear is affecting maritime currents, surface phytoplankton, and coastal weather patterns...

PLUS... it doesn't really link to causality FOR hurricanes, does it not?

Nevertheless, Gary, thanks. The link I am following right now... and again, 'consensus' is hardly what I'd consider this study. Again, I don't want to offend your intelligence... but this is one little tidbit of information that needs a little more than a correlation with questionable observations.

Hey, you don't need to try and explain or defend this to me. It's just another example of the GW nuts changing their story to fit the facts. It's the same as the bogus story that the warming in the oceans will "postpone" GW for 15 years. I noticed that you latched right onto that one. I expected nothing less from you. I got what I expected.

and while we're on the topic of global warming, we never broke 100 in leavenworth this year. right now the temp is 62, about 20 below normal.

[HAL 9000 96]

Yeah... its cooler this season so that must mean...

[IAMX 3,055]

Funny, I read a while back that GW was going to make hurricanes less fierce. I wish they would make up their minds. Oh wait, whatever the current weather is always lines up with the fallacy of GW. Sorry, I forgot.

Link? I'd love to read what you read. The rest is as usual, not understanding the difference between natural and artificial contributors to phenomena.

You need to keep up on the "consensus" brother.

Warming May Reduce Hurricane Landfalls, Study Says

Seth Borenstein,

AP Science Writer

Associated Press

January 23, 2008

Contrary to many previous reports, global warming could reduce the number of hurricanes that strike the United States, according to a new study.

The work is the latest in a contentious scientific debate over how human-induced global warming might affect the intensity and frequency of hurricanes.

In the study, researchers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Miami in Florida link warming oceans to increased vertical wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean near the United States.

Wind shear—a change in upper-level wind speed or direction—makes it hard for hurricanes to form, strengthen, and stay active.

With every degree Celsius that the oceans warm, the wind shear increases by up to 10 miles (16 kilometers) an hour, said lead study author Chunzai Wang, a physical oceanographer at NOAA.

So that means "global warming may decrease the likelihood of hurricanes making landfall in the United States," according to the study authors.

Global Effects

The NOAA findings support results released last April in which a suit of climate models also predicted an increase in wind shear due to warming.

The new study is based on observations instead of computer models, Wang noted.

Observations made between 1854 to 2006 show that sea-surface temperatures are rising globally, his team says, with significant warming in the tropical regions of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans.

Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans have global effects, much like the Pacific weather phenomenon known as El Niño does, Wang said.

Warming in those regions will increase wind shear in the areas of the Atlantic where hurricanes form.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/20...hurricanes.html

Actually, Gary, the subject of cyclone activity resulting from GW is up for debate, not GW itself:

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~gav/ipcc_shears.html

Global Warming Projections and Hurricanes Activity

How hurricane (or more generally "tropical cyclone") activity will respond to human-induced global warming is a topic of much popular interest and scientific debate. Recent studies (cf. Tom Knutson's "Hurricanes and Global Warming Page") suggest that global warming may act to increase tropical cyclone activity due to a rise in ocean surface temperatures. However, there are a number of environmental factors besides ocean surface temperature which also influence the development and intensification of hurricanes, such as upper atmospheric temperature, relative humidity, and wind shear (see below).

The study of Vecchi and Soden (2007) explored changes in these environmental factors in a set of 18 'state-of-the-art' coupled climate models simulations for the 21st Century (external link to PCMDI). These climate model simulations were performed by research laboratories all over the world in support of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (extenal link to IPCC AR4)

These models combine our best understanding of the physical processes controlling the climate system (atmosphere, ocean, land surface and sea ice), with estimates of possible concentrations of greenhouse gases over the coming century, to provide projections of future climate changes. The models are not perfect, with uncertainties arising from our inability to fully represent certain physical processes and imperfect knowledge of future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. However, climate models have proved skillful in reproducing many aspects of past climate change and are essential to making projections of future climate change.

A key finding of this study is the projected increase in wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and eastern Pacific ocean basins during the next century. Wind shear results from a change in direction or speed of winds between the lower and upper levels of the atmosphere and is widely recognized to inhibit the development and intensification of tropical cyclones. The models also project a decrease in Central and West Pacific wind shear in the 21st Century (see below or Vecchi and Soden (2007))

The increased Atlantic and East Pacific shear is a common feature of climate model projections for the 21st Century and is tied to an overall weakening of the tropical "Walker circulation" - a vast loop of winds that influences climate across much of the globe, and varies in concert with naturally-occuring El Niño and La Niña oscillations.

Because current climate models do not resolve tropical cyclones explicitly, the study focussed on the models' projections of changes in large-scale environmental parameters associated with tropical cyclone activity and intensity, and NOT on simulations of tropical cyclones themselves. The net effect of increased wind shear, warmer oceans, and other environmental changes on the number and intensity of tropical cyclones will require further investigation with more detailed models. However, the current study does point out the presence of other key environmental changes over the Atlantic and eastern Pacific that are comparable in magnitude to the impact of warming oceans, but with an opposing effect on tropical cyclone activity.

[HAL 9000 96]

[Ban Hammer 13,352]

Yeah... its cooler this season so that must mean...

it means lower electric bills. but i'm happy we didn't have our usual 5-7 days of 100+ this year.

[GaryC 7]

Uh huh. Try backpeddling some more. It's fun to watch. Your so full of sh!t your eyes are brown.

[IAMX 3,055]

Uh huh. Try backpeddling some more. It's fun to watch. Your so full of sh!t your eyes are brown.

Nice refute, guess that about sums up the value of your debates on intellectual issues. May as well go back to one-liners with snarky comments.

[tok 0]

Gotta love Chicken Little quotes....