Global Warming Is Making Hurricanes Fiercer, and the Worst is Yet to Come

[one...two...tree 2,762]

In the destructive heart of hurricane season, climate scientists have come out with some alarming news: the most powerful storms have gained wind strength over the past 25 years as a result of gradually warming ocean waters, and global warming is likely to continue that trend. It's hardly welcome news, as Gulf Coast residents are still recovering from this week's close call with Hurricane Gustav and Caribbean islanders are warily eyeing several new tropical storms gaining strength over the Atlantic. The new study is likely to renew the debate over global warming's effect on major storms: [T]here has been controversy about whether these hurricanes will get more intense and numerous, with many claiming the data are not good enough to discern a real trend upwards in recent years…. Today's study, by Prof James Elsner of Florida State University, concludes that the strongest tropical cyclones - the general term for intense storms such as hurricanes and typhoons - are getting stronger, with the greatest increase recorded in the North Atlantic and northern Indian oceans [Telegraph].

Elsner's study, published in the journal Nature [subscription required], examined all the cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes that have formed around the world over the past 25 years, and looked at the maximum wind speed attained by each storm. While he didn't find a change in the overall number of storms, he did determine that the peak wind speeds of the most intense storms has increased over the decades; the strongest North Atlantic hurricanes in the 1990s had peak wind speeds about 10 kilometers per hour faster than those in the region's strongest storms of the 1980s [Science News].

Researchers believe that rising ocean temperatures provide more energy that can be converted into cyclone wind, and say the strongest storms are best able to take advantage of this energy boost, overcoming dampening atmospheric conditions to reach their full potential strength. The study found that the strongest storms gained wind speed in all of the world's storm basins except the South Pacific. The apparent reason is that the South Pacific is already the warmest sea region, and thus has seen less of a relative increase in temperature compared to the Atlantic, Indian Ocean and North Pacific [AFP].

This trend is not promising, says Elsner. The team calculates that a 1 ºC increase in sea-surface temperatures would result in a 31% increase in the global frequency of category 4 and 5 storms per year: from 13 of those storms to 17. Since 1970, the tropical oceans have warmed on average by around 0.5 ºC. Computer models suggest they may warm by a further 2 ºC by 2100 [Nature News].

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/80beats/...is-yet-to-come/

[Niels Bohr 72]

More non-sense.

[Ban Hammer 13,352]

deja vu.......you posted a similar topic last year didn't you?

[alienlovechild 75]

Didn't Gore predict more numerous and powerful hurricanes because of global warming?

Gore is a prophet! Repent sinners, the end is Nigh!

[HAL 9000 96]

Its no secret that hurricanes strengthen over warmer, shallower waters. Where is the nonsense in that?

Natural or artificial causes aside, it should not be a big shock to notice that as oceanic temperature rises, so do the frequency and severity of hurricanes.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

The sun is cooling down, the sun god will fix what Gore could not!

[Niels Bohr 72]

In the past, there was hurricanes that are stronger than these.

There are winds known as 40 year winds, 50 year winds, and 100 year winds. Reason Engineers called them this is that they occur one every 40 years, 50 years, or 100 years.

By looking at data of recent activity, it doesn't reveal anything predictable. I'll keep an eye open though. Hey, he maybe right.

Edited September 4, 2008 by consolemaster

[*JG* 2]

I don't see any issues with what he wrote.

[Hilarious Clinton 452]

deja vu.......you posted a similar topic last year didn't you?

there have been fewer hurricanes the past couple years

[GaryC 7]

Funny, I read a while back that GW was going to make hurricanes less fierce. I wish they would make up their minds. Oh wait, whatever the current weather is always lines up with the fallacy of GW. Sorry, I forgot.

[HAL 9000 96]

Funny, I read a while back that GW was going to make hurricanes less fierce. I wish they would make up their minds. Oh wait, whatever the current weather is always lines up with the fallacy of GW. Sorry, I forgot.

Link? I'd love to read what you read. The rest is as usual, not understanding the difference between natural and artificial contributors to phenomena.

[GaryC 7]

Funny, I read a while back that GW was going to make hurricanes less fierce. I wish they would make up their minds. Oh wait, whatever the current weather is always lines up with the fallacy of GW. Sorry, I forgot.

Link? I'd love to read what you read. The rest is as usual, not understanding the difference between natural and artificial contributors to phenomena.

You need to keep up on the "consensus" brother.

Warming May Reduce Hurricane Landfalls, Study Says

Seth Borenstein,

AP Science Writer

Associated Press

January 23, 2008

Contrary to many previous reports, global warming could reduce the number of hurricanes that strike the United States, according to a new study.

The work is the latest in a contentious scientific debate over how human-induced global warming might affect the intensity and frequency of hurricanes.

In the study, researchers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Miami in Florida link warming oceans to increased vertical wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean near the United States.

Wind shear—a change in upper-level wind speed or direction—makes it hard for hurricanes to form, strengthen, and stay active.

With every degree Celsius that the oceans warm, the wind shear increases by up to 10 miles (16 kilometers) an hour, said lead study author Chunzai Wang, a physical oceanographer at NOAA.

So that means "global warming may decrease the likelihood of hurricanes making landfall in the United States," according to the study authors.

Global Effects

The NOAA findings support results released last April in which a suit of climate models also predicted an increase in wind shear due to warming.

The new study is based on observations instead of computer models, Wang noted.

Observations made between 1854 to 2006 show that sea-surface temperatures are rising globally, his team says, with significant warming in the tropical regions of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans.

Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans have global effects, much like the Pacific weather phenomenon known as El Niño does, Wang said.

Warming in those regions will increase wind shear in the areas of the Atlantic where hurricanes form.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/20...hurricanes.html

[HAL 9000 96]

Funny, I read a while back that GW was going to make hurricanes less fierce. I wish they would make up their minds. Oh wait, whatever the current weather is always lines up with the fallacy of GW. Sorry, I forgot.

Link? I'd love to read what you read. The rest is as usual, not understanding the difference between natural and artificial contributors to phenomena.

You need to keep up on the "consensus" brother.

Warming May Reduce Hurricane Landfalls, Study Says

Seth Borenstein,

AP Science Writer

Associated Press

January 23, 2008

Contrary to many previous reports, global warming could reduce the number of hurricanes that strike the United States, according to a new study.

The work is the latest in a contentious scientific debate over how human-induced global warming might affect the intensity and frequency of hurricanes.

In the study, researchers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Miami in Florida link warming oceans to increased vertical wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean near the United States.

Wind shear—a change in upper-level wind speed or direction—makes it hard for hurricanes to form, strengthen, and stay active.

With every degree Celsius that the oceans warm, the wind shear increases by up to 10 miles (16 kilometers) an hour, said lead study author Chunzai Wang, a physical oceanographer at NOAA.

So that means "global warming may decrease the likelihood of hurricanes making landfall in the United States," according to the study authors.

Global Effects

The NOAA findings support results released last April in which a suit of climate models also predicted an increase in wind shear due to warming.

The new study is based on observations instead of computer models, Wang noted.

Observations made between 1854 to 2006 show that sea-surface temperatures are rising globally, his team says, with significant warming in the tropical regions of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans.

Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans have global effects, much like the Pacific weather phenomenon known as El Niño does, Wang said.

Warming in those regions will increase wind shear in the areas of the Atlantic where hurricanes form.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/20...hurricanes.html

Let me know when those findings (interesting indeed) become 'consensus.'

So what this statistical analysis 'found' was that wind shear (think: upwards wind) would act like a wall against upcoming hurricanes? Cool. I wonder if they could also dig up statistics about how this increased wind shear is affecting maritime currents, surface phytoplankton, and coastal weather patterns...

PLUS... it doesn't really link to causality FOR hurricanes, does it not?

Nevertheless, Gary, thanks. The link I am following right now... and again, 'consensus' is hardly what I'd consider this study. Again, I don't want to offend your intelligence... but this is one little tidbit of information that needs a little more than a correlation with questionable observations.

[GaryC 7]

Funny, I read a while back that GW was going to make hurricanes less fierce. I wish they would make up their minds. Oh wait, whatever the current weather is always lines up with the fallacy of GW. Sorry, I forgot.

Link? I'd love to read what you read. The rest is as usual, not understanding the difference between natural and artificial contributors to phenomena.

You need to keep up on the "consensus" brother.

Warming May Reduce Hurricane Landfalls, Study Says

Seth Borenstein,

AP Science Writer

Associated Press

January 23, 2008

Contrary to many previous reports, global warming could reduce the number of hurricanes that strike the United States, according to a new study.

The work is the latest in a contentious scientific debate over how human-induced global warming might affect the intensity and frequency of hurricanes.

In the study, researchers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Miami in Florida link warming oceans to increased vertical wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean near the United States.

Wind shear—a change in upper-level wind speed or direction—makes it hard for hurricanes to form, strengthen, and stay active.

With every degree Celsius that the oceans warm, the wind shear increases by up to 10 miles (16 kilometers) an hour, said lead study author Chunzai Wang, a physical oceanographer at NOAA.

So that means "global warming may decrease the likelihood of hurricanes making landfall in the United States," according to the study authors.

Global Effects

The NOAA findings support results released last April in which a suit of climate models also predicted an increase in wind shear due to warming.

The new study is based on observations instead of computer models, Wang noted.

Observations made between 1854 to 2006 show that sea-surface temperatures are rising globally, his team says, with significant warming in the tropical regions of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans.

Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans have global effects, much like the Pacific weather phenomenon known as El Niño does, Wang said.

Warming in those regions will increase wind shear in the areas of the Atlantic where hurricanes form.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/20...hurricanes.html

Let me know when those findings (interesting indeed) become 'consensus.'

So what this statistical analysis 'found' was that wind shear (think: upwards wind) would act like a wall against upcoming hurricanes? Cool. I wonder if they could also dig up statistics about how this increased wind shear is affecting maritime currents, surface phytoplankton, and coastal weather patterns...

PLUS... it doesn't really link to causality FOR hurricanes, does it not?

Nevertheless, Gary, thanks. The link I am following right now... and again, 'consensus' is hardly what I'd consider this study. Again, I don't want to offend your intelligence... but this is one little tidbit of information that needs a little more than a correlation with questionable observations.

Hey, you don't need to try and explain or defend this to me. It's just another example of the GW nuts changing their story to fit the facts. It's the same as the bogus story that the warming in the oceans will "postpone" GW for 15 years. I noticed that you latched right onto that one. I expected nothing less from you. I got what I expected.

[HAL 9000 96]

Funny, I read a while back that GW was going to make hurricanes less fierce. I wish they would make up their minds. Oh wait, whatever the current weather is always lines up with the fallacy of GW. Sorry, I forgot.

Link? I'd love to read what you read. The rest is as usual, not understanding the difference between natural and artificial contributors to phenomena.

You need to keep up on the "consensus" brother.

Warming May Reduce Hurricane Landfalls, Study Says

Seth Borenstein,

AP Science Writer

Associated Press

January 23, 2008

Contrary to many previous reports, global warming could reduce the number of hurricanes that strike the United States, according to a new study.

The work is the latest in a contentious scientific debate over how human-induced global warming might affect the intensity and frequency of hurricanes.

In the study, researchers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Miami in Florida link warming oceans to increased vertical wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean near the United States.

Wind shear—a change in upper-level wind speed or direction—makes it hard for hurricanes to form, strengthen, and stay active.

With every degree Celsius that the oceans warm, the wind shear increases by up to 10 miles (16 kilometers) an hour, said lead study author Chunzai Wang, a physical oceanographer at NOAA.

So that means "global warming may decrease the likelihood of hurricanes making landfall in the United States," according to the study authors.

Global Effects

The NOAA findings support results released last April in which a suit of climate models also predicted an increase in wind shear due to warming.

The new study is based on observations instead of computer models, Wang noted.

Observations made between 1854 to 2006 show that sea-surface temperatures are rising globally, his team says, with significant warming in the tropical regions of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans.

Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans have global effects, much like the Pacific weather phenomenon known as El Niño does, Wang said.

Warming in those regions will increase wind shear in the areas of the Atlantic where hurricanes form.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/20...hurricanes.html

Let me know when those findings (interesting indeed) become 'consensus.'

So what this statistical analysis 'found' was that wind shear (think: upwards wind) would act like a wall against upcoming hurricanes? Cool. I wonder if they could also dig up statistics about how this increased wind shear is affecting maritime currents, surface phytoplankton, and coastal weather patterns...

PLUS... it doesn't really link to causality FOR hurricanes, does it not?

Nevertheless, Gary, thanks. The link I am following right now... and again, 'consensus' is hardly what I'd consider this study. Again, I don't want to offend your intelligence... but this is one little tidbit of information that needs a little more than a correlation with questionable observations.

Hey, you don't need to try and explain or defend this to me. It's just another example of the GW nuts changing their story to fit the facts. It's the same as the bogus story that the warming in the oceans will "postpone" GW for 15 years. I noticed that you latched right onto that one. I expected nothing less from you. I got what I expected.

You definitely needed an explanation. What the article alludes to is something quite ancillary to GW. Which you apparently missed (surprised?) in the reading...