Gallup: McCain ahead

[metta 0]

Gallup Daily: No Bounce for Obama in Post-Biden Tracking

McCain creeps ahead, 46% to 44%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109834/Gallup-D...n-Tracking.aspx PRINCETON, NJ -- It's official: Barack Obama has received no bounce in voter support out of his selection of Sen. Joe Biden to be his vice presidential running mate.

Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 23-25, the first three-day period falling entirely after Obama's Saturday morning vice presidential announcement, shows 46% of national registered voters backing John McCain and 44% supporting Obama, not appreciably different from the previous week's standing for both candidates. This is the first time since Obama clinched the nomination in early June, though, that McCain has held any kind of advantage over Obama in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

The race for president has been virtually tied since mid-August. In this period, Obama's support from national registered voters has consistently ranged from 44% to 46%. The 46% currently supporting McCain is technically his best showing since late May/early June, but is not a statistically significant improvement over his recent range from 43% to 45%. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

An analysis of historical election poll trends by Gallup Poll Managing Editor Jeff Jones shows that recent presidential campaigns have enjoyed a small (though short-lived) bounce from the running mate announcement. This includes a four percentage point bounce for John Kerry in 2004 after selecting John Edwards, a 5-point bounce for Al Gore in 2000 with his announcement of Joe Lieberman, and a 3-point bounce for George W. Bush in 2000 upon choosing ####### Cheney. Bob Dole received an extraordinary 9-point bounce in 1996 after bringing Jack Kemp onto his ticket.

All of these bounces occurred before the respective party's convention began, and in most cases the candidates received an additional boost in the polls upon completion of the convention. Thus, any increase in Obama's support in the coming days would seem to be more the result of the star-studded and well publicized Democratic national convention than the apparently lackluster Biden selection.

The official Gallup records will show that support for Obama declined by two percentage points in Gallup Poll Daily tracking (from 46% to 44%) conducted immediately before and after the Aug. 23 Biden announcement. (Because the announcement was made at 3 a.m. on Saturday, Aug. 23, all Gallup interviewing conducted that day can be considered post announcement.)

Today's Gallup Poll Daily tracking result includes interviewing on the first night of the Democratic National Convention (Aug. 25). However, much of this interviewing, particularly in the East and Midwest, was conducted before the prime time convention speeches by Sen. Ted Kennedy and Michelle Obama. The Gallup Poll Daily tracking results reported tomorrow may start to indicate whether voters are impressed enough by what they are seeing at the convention to give Obama the bounce that typically occurs as a result of a party's convention. -- Lydia Saad

Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.

Survey Methods

For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general-election results are based on combined data from Aug. 23-25, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,684 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

To provide feedback or suggestions about how to improve Gallup.com, please e-mail feedback@gallup.com.

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McCain creeps ahead, 46% to 44%

It's more like he's galloping!

[Peikko 1,575]

It's sad though, that McCain should even be on the same page in terms of polls, but here we are and McCain is doing very well. Of course, plenty of time between now and November, but all that crowing after Barack won the nomination...not very conducive to electoral victory it would seem.

[dalegg 143]

Do you think the Biden announcement is partially resonsible? Biden to me seemed a very bad choice for Obama. He may be very complimentary to Obama's campaign, but I kind of think he's also a bit contradictory. Could be much of the base sees him as representing "old politics" and doesn't see such a glaring future of change afterall. That and there's got to be at least a handful of Clinton supporters who were clinging on to hope of at least a VP shot who just left the building.

[metta 0]

Do you think the Biden announcement is partially resonsible? Biden to me seemed a very bad choice for Obama. He may be very complimentary to Obama's campaign, but I kind of think he's also a bit contradictory. Could be much of the base sees him as representing "old politics" and doesn't see such a glaring future of change afterall. That and there's got to be at least a handful of Clinton supporters who were clinging on to hope of at least a VP shot who just left the building.

From the point of political strategy, it was a lame move. Logically, Hillary would have been the best pick with 18 million votes in her bag. Biden had 9000. Yet, Obama picked Biden. To me it shows that he really doesn't think he could lose and I don't blame him. As a candidate, he's in a bubble with adulating crowds everywhere he goes. And, polls.. well, they're just snapshots.

I don't think many HRC supporters were clinging on to the hope of her becoming VP nominee except for a few. However, many would have been swayed back to the ticket had she been picked as a running mate and for many it would have been a more bitter pill to swallow (vote for her as running mate)than to go free on his or her own second pick.

[HAL 9000 96]

Do you think the Biden announcement is partially resonsible? Biden to me seemed a very bad choice for Obama. He may be very complimentary to Obama's campaign, but I kind of think he's also a bit contradictory. Could be much of the base sees him as representing "old politics" and doesn't see such a glaring future of change afterall. That and there's got to be at least a handful of Clinton supporters who were clinging on to hope of at least a VP shot who just left the building.

It would be a bad choice for those in the Obama 'base' that somehow expect change out of nothing. Biden stands to benefit an Obama Presidency just enough to be a VP that 'advices' Obama when needed- since many Republicans seem to think that in Washington, the President is the person that is supposed to do everything by him/herself. And to be consistent, if that were the case- then a McCain Presidency would mean that the poor soul would need to be on constant memory pills and caffeine to be able to abide by the campaign platform.

Somehow I don't see most of those in that 'base' as naive enough (although the obvious Republicans do) to believe that this is 1) a bad choice and 2) too classical a political choice.

[dalegg 143]

Do you think the Biden announcement is partially resonsible? Biden to me seemed a very bad choice for Obama. He may be very complimentary to Obama's campaign, but I kind of think he's also a bit contradictory. Could be much of the base sees him as representing "old politics" and doesn't see such a glaring future of change afterall. That and there's got to be at least a handful of Clinton supporters who were clinging on to hope of at least a VP shot who just left the building.

It would be a bad choice for those in the Obama 'base' that somehow expect change out of nothing. Biden stands to benefit an Obama Presidency just enough to be a VP that 'advices' Obama when needed- since many Republicans seem to think that in Washington, the President is the person that is supposed to do everything by him/herself. And to be consistent, if that were the case- then a McCain Presidency would mean that the poor soul would need to be on constant memory pills and caffeine to be able to abide by the campaign platform.

Somehow I don't see most of those in that 'base' as naive enough (although the obvious Republicans do) to believe that this is 1) a bad choice and 2) too classical a political choice.

Well, the polls are going in the wrong direction for some reason at a time when there should have been excitement in the party.

Personally, I'm happy with the Biden choice because it tells me that even if Obama wins the election we probably aren't in for the dramatic overhaul I previously feared.

[HAL 9000 96]

Do you think the Biden announcement is partially resonsible? Biden to me seemed a very bad choice for Obama. He may be very complimentary to Obama's campaign, but I kind of think he's also a bit contradictory. Could be much of the base sees him as representing "old politics" and doesn't see such a glaring future of change afterall. That and there's got to be at least a handful of Clinton supporters who were clinging on to hope of at least a VP shot who just left the building.

It would be a bad choice for those in the Obama 'base' that somehow expect change out of nothing. Biden stands to benefit an Obama Presidency just enough to be a VP that 'advices' Obama when needed- since many Republicans seem to think that in Washington, the President is the person that is supposed to do everything by him/herself. And to be consistent, if that were the case- then a McCain Presidency would mean that the poor soul would need to be on constant memory pills and caffeine to be able to abide by the campaign platform.

Somehow I don't see most of those in that 'base' as naive enough (although the obvious Republicans do) to believe that this is 1) a bad choice and 2) too classical a political choice.

Well, the polls are going in the wrong direction for some reason at a time when there should have been excitement in the party.

Personally, I'm happy with the Biden choice because it tells me that even if Obama wins the election we probably aren't in for the dramatic overhaul I previously feared.

Well I see it a little bit more complicated than as something reliant on sampling polls. There are factors that influence these things that go beyond the expected bumps in polls when dealing with people's sentiments of race, class, politics, and even political antipathy.

[dalegg 143]

Do you think the Biden announcement is partially resonsible? Biden to me seemed a very bad choice for Obama. He may be very complimentary to Obama's campaign, but I kind of think he's also a bit contradictory. Could be much of the base sees him as representing "old politics" and doesn't see such a glaring future of change afterall. That and there's got to be at least a handful of Clinton supporters who were clinging on to hope of at least a VP shot who just left the building.

It would be a bad choice for those in the Obama 'base' that somehow expect change out of nothing. Biden stands to benefit an Obama Presidency just enough to be a VP that 'advices' Obama when needed- since many Republicans seem to think that in Washington, the President is the person that is supposed to do everything by him/herself. And to be consistent, if that were the case- then a McCain Presidency would mean that the poor soul would need to be on constant memory pills and caffeine to be able to abide by the campaign platform.

Somehow I don't see most of those in that 'base' as naive enough (although the obvious Republicans do) to believe that this is 1) a bad choice and 2) too classical a political choice.

Well, the polls are going in the wrong direction for some reason at a time when there should have been excitement in the party.

Personally, I'm happy with the Biden choice because it tells me that even if Obama wins the election we probably aren't in for the dramatic overhaul I previously feared.

Well I see it a little bit more complicated than as something reliant on sampling polls. There are factors that influence these things that go beyond the expected bumps in polls when dealing with people's sentiments of race, class, politics, and even political antipathy.

No, it's not. Its all about Biden.

[HAL 9000 96]

Do you think the Biden announcement is partially resonsible? Biden to me seemed a very bad choice for Obama. He may be very complimentary to Obama's campaign, but I kind of think he's also a bit contradictory. Could be much of the base sees him as representing "old politics" and doesn't see such a glaring future of change afterall. That and there's got to be at least a handful of Clinton supporters who were clinging on to hope of at least a VP shot who just left the building.

It would be a bad choice for those in the Obama 'base' that somehow expect change out of nothing. Biden stands to benefit an Obama Presidency just enough to be a VP that 'advices' Obama when needed- since many Republicans seem to think that in Washington, the President is the person that is supposed to do everything by him/herself. And to be consistent, if that were the case- then a McCain Presidency would mean that the poor soul would need to be on constant memory pills and caffeine to be able to abide by the campaign platform.

Somehow I don't see most of those in that 'base' as naive enough (although the obvious Republicans do) to believe that this is 1) a bad choice and 2) too classical a political choice.

Well, the polls are going in the wrong direction for some reason at a time when there should have been excitement in the party.

Personally, I'm happy with the Biden choice because it tells me that even if Obama wins the election we probably aren't in for the dramatic overhaul I previously feared.

Well I see it a little bit more complicated than as something reliant on sampling polls. There are factors that influence these things that go beyond the expected bumps in polls when dealing with people's sentiments of race, class, politics, and even political antipathy.

No, it's not. Its all about Biden.

Yes it is

How unfortunate that some voters out there are petty enough to let ancillary issues rule their behavior.

[metta 0]

Do you think the Biden announcement is partially resonsible? Biden to me seemed a very bad choice for Obama. He may be very complimentary to Obama's campaign, but I kind of think he's also a bit contradictory. Could be much of the base sees him as representing "old politics" and doesn't see such a glaring future of change afterall. That and there's got to be at least a handful of Clinton supporters who were clinging on to hope of at least a VP shot who just left the building.

It would be a bad choice for those in the Obama 'base' that somehow expect change out of nothing. Biden stands to benefit an Obama Presidency just enough to be a VP that 'advices' Obama when needed- since many Republicans seem to think that in Washington, the President is the person that is supposed to do everything by him/herself. And to be consistent, if that were the case- then a McCain Presidency would mean that the poor soul would need to be on constant memory pills and caffeine to be able to abide by the campaign platform.

Somehow I don't see most of those in that 'base' as naive enough (although the obvious Republicans do) to believe that this is 1) a bad choice and 2) too classical a political choice.

Well, the polls are going in the wrong direction for some reason at a time when there should have been excitement in the party.

Personally, I'm happy with the Biden choice because it tells me that even if Obama wins the election we probably aren't in for the dramatic overhaul I previously feared.

Well I see it a little bit more complicated than as something reliant on sampling polls. There are factors that influence these things that go beyond the expected bumps in polls when dealing with people's sentiments of race, class, politics, and even political antipathy.

No, it's not. Its all about Biden.

Yes it is

How unfortunate that some voters out there are petty enough to let ancillary issues rule their behavior.

So true! So true! Same goes for the petty candidate too.

[HAL 9000 96]

Do you think the Biden announcement is partially resonsible? Biden to me seemed a very bad choice for Obama. He may be very complimentary to Obama's campaign, but I kind of think he's also a bit contradictory. Could be much of the base sees him as representing "old politics" and doesn't see such a glaring future of change afterall. That and there's got to be at least a handful of Clinton supporters who were clinging on to hope of at least a VP shot who just left the building.

It would be a bad choice for those in the Obama 'base' that somehow expect change out of nothing. Biden stands to benefit an Obama Presidency just enough to be a VP that 'advices' Obama when needed- since many Republicans seem to think that in Washington, the President is the person that is supposed to do everything by him/herself. And to be consistent, if that were the case- then a McCain Presidency would mean that the poor soul would need to be on constant memory pills and caffeine to be able to abide by the campaign platform.

Somehow I don't see most of those in that 'base' as naive enough (although the obvious Republicans do) to believe that this is 1) a bad choice and 2) too classical a political choice.

Well, the polls are going in the wrong direction for some reason at a time when there should have been excitement in the party.

Personally, I'm happy with the Biden choice because it tells me that even if Obama wins the election we probably aren't in for the dramatic overhaul I previously feared.

Well I see it a little bit more complicated than as something reliant on sampling polls. There are factors that influence these things that go beyond the expected bumps in polls when dealing with people's sentiments of race, class, politics, and even political antipathy.

No, it's not. Its all about Biden.

Yes it is

How unfortunate that some voters out there are petty enough to let ancillary issues rule their behavior.

So true! So true! Same goes for the petty candidate too.

Awwwwwww... he's the candidate. Not you.

[metta 0]

Do you think the Biden announcement is partially resonsible? Biden to me seemed a very bad choice for Obama. He may be very complimentary to Obama's campaign, but I kind of think he's also a bit contradictory. Could be much of the base sees him as representing "old politics" and doesn't see such a glaring future of change afterall. That and there's got to be at least a handful of Clinton supporters who were clinging on to hope of at least a VP shot who just left the building.

It would be a bad choice for those in the Obama 'base' that somehow expect change out of nothing. Biden stands to benefit an Obama Presidency just enough to be a VP that 'advices' Obama when needed- since many Republicans seem to think that in Washington, the President is the person that is supposed to do everything by him/herself. And to be consistent, if that were the case- then a McCain Presidency would mean that the poor soul would need to be on constant memory pills and caffeine to be able to abide by the campaign platform.

Somehow I don't see most of those in that 'base' as naive enough (although the obvious Republicans do) to believe that this is 1) a bad choice and 2) too classical a political choice.

Well, the polls are going in the wrong direction for some reason at a time when there should have been excitement in the party.

Personally, I'm happy with the Biden choice because it tells me that even if Obama wins the election we probably aren't in for the dramatic overhaul I previously feared.

Well I see it a little bit more complicated than as something reliant on sampling polls. There are factors that influence these things that go beyond the expected bumps in polls when dealing with people's sentiments of race, class, politics, and even political antipathy.

No, it's not. Its all about Biden.

Yes it is

How unfortunate that some voters out there are petty enough to let ancillary issues rule their behavior.

So true! So true! Same goes for the petty candidate too.

Awwwwwww... he's the candidate. Not you.

Now, now, don't you think you're a bit too old for "my daddy is bigger than you anyways'" retort Mav?

[HAL 9000 96]

Do you think the Biden announcement is partially resonsible? Biden to me seemed a very bad choice for Obama. He may be very complimentary to Obama's campaign, but I kind of think he's also a bit contradictory. Could be much of the base sees him as representing "old politics" and doesn't see such a glaring future of change afterall. That and there's got to be at least a handful of Clinton supporters who were clinging on to hope of at least a VP shot who just left the building.

It would be a bad choice for those in the Obama 'base' that somehow expect change out of nothing. Biden stands to benefit an Obama Presidency just enough to be a VP that 'advices' Obama when needed- since many Republicans seem to think that in Washington, the President is the person that is supposed to do everything by him/herself. And to be consistent, if that were the case- then a McCain Presidency would mean that the poor soul would need to be on constant memory pills and caffeine to be able to abide by the campaign platform.

Somehow I don't see most of those in that 'base' as naive enough (although the obvious Republicans do) to believe that this is 1) a bad choice and 2) too classical a political choice.

Well, the polls are going in the wrong direction for some reason at a time when there should have been excitement in the party.

Personally, I'm happy with the Biden choice because it tells me that even if Obama wins the election we probably aren't in for the dramatic overhaul I previously feared.

Well I see it a little bit more complicated than as something reliant on sampling polls. There are factors that influence these things that go beyond the expected bumps in polls when dealing with people's sentiments of race, class, politics, and even political antipathy.

No, it's not. Its all about Biden.

Yes it is

How unfortunate that some voters out there are petty enough to let ancillary issues rule their behavior.

So true! So true! Same goes for the petty candidate too.

Awwwwwww... he's the candidate. Not you.

Now, now, don't you think you're a bit too old for "my daddy is bigger than you anyways'" retort Mav?

Who knows. All I know is that if you want to go for a #######-for-tat bout of whining you should at least mention that that clip was one made in response to another #######-for-tat attack from La Señora. Which brings us to the present day and La Señora's endorsement of El Señor. Which means that once again, all you have to do is practice a little bit of "get-over-it-ism" and be happy.

[metta 0]

Do you think the Biden announcement is partially resonsible? Biden to me seemed a very bad choice for Obama. He may be very complimentary to Obama's campaign, but I kind of think he's also a bit contradictory. Could be much of the base sees him as representing "old politics" and doesn't see such a glaring future of change afterall. That and there's got to be at least a handful of Clinton supporters who were clinging on to hope of at least a VP shot who just left the building.

It would be a bad choice for those in the Obama 'base' that somehow expect change out of nothing. Biden stands to benefit an Obama Presidency just enough to be a VP that 'advices' Obama when needed- since many Republicans seem to think that in Washington, the President is the person that is supposed to do everything by him/herself. And to be consistent, if that were the case- then a McCain Presidency would mean that the poor soul would need to be on constant memory pills and caffeine to be able to abide by the campaign platform.

Somehow I don't see most of those in that 'base' as naive enough (although the obvious Republicans do) to believe that this is 1) a bad choice and 2) too classical a political choice.

Well, the polls are going in the wrong direction for some reason at a time when there should have been excitement in the party.

Personally, I'm happy with the Biden choice because it tells me that even if Obama wins the election we probably aren't in for the dramatic overhaul I previously feared.

Well I see it a little bit more complicated than as something reliant on sampling polls. There are factors that influence these things that go beyond the expected bumps in polls when dealing with people's sentiments of race, class, politics, and even political antipathy.

No, it's not. Its all about Biden.

Yes it is

How unfortunate that some voters out there are petty enough to let ancillary issues rule their behavior.

So true! So true! Same goes for the petty candidate too.

Awwwwwww... he's the candidate. Not you.

Now, now, don't you think you're a bit too old for "my daddy is bigger than you anyways'" retort Mav?

Who knows. All I know is that if you want to go for a #######-for-tat bout of whining you should at least mention that that clip was one made in response to another #######-for-tat attack from La Señora. Which brings us to the present day and La Señora's endorsement of El Señor. Which means that once again, all you have to do is practice a little bit of "get-over-it-ism" and be happy.

Oh, don't worry. I am happy enough with my choice not to point fingers at those who disagree with me branding them as petty or biased or emotional, that I notice some folks on this board are doing.