Barack Obama looks less likely to win now, than at any point since the end of the primaries

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Although Barack Obama remains a slight favorite in this election, his position is more vulnerable than at any point since the primaries concluded, and he no longer appears to have a built-in strength in the electoral college that we had attributed to him before.

The reason is a new poll out of Ohio, where Public Policy Polling now shows the race dead-even at 45-45. In a PPP poll conducted in July, Obama had led by 8; that poll had been largely responsible for propping up Obama's Ohio numbers. Our simulation model operates quite literally in shades of color, rather than a simple red:blue duality. However, with this poll figured in, we now figure McCain to be a very slight favorite in Ohio.

Furthermore, with Ohio now trailing behind Obama's numbers nationally -- we regard Obama as a 1.0-point favorite in the national popular vote, but McCain an 0.6-point favorite in Ohio -- McCain now rates as slightly more likely to win the electoral college than the popular vote, a reversal of the trend apparent for most of the past couple of months.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/lat...-polls-817.html

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Ohio's Election Stolen Again? State May Face 600K Voter Purge in Coming Weeks

Voting rights attorneys say hundreds of thousands of voters could be purged from voter rolls.

Columbus, Ohio August 13, 2008 -- Nearly 600,000 eligible Ohio voters may be dropped from the voter rolls if Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner doesn't act to protect these voters, according to findings based on publicly available information discovered by Advancement Project and Project Vote.

These voters -- disproportionately voters of color and young voters -- are subject to being removed from Ohio's voter registration rolls without notice or a hearing because of the state's vague regulations on vote caging, a process that enables representatives of one political party to challenge the voter registration credentials of voters at polling places on Election Day.

The Ohio counties with largest numbers of returned notices prior to March 2008 Presidential Primary are Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Lucas and Summit, where Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati and Toledo are located.

The mechanism of caging or challenging voters dates back to legislation passed soon after the 2004 presidential election.

http://www.alternet.org/democracy/94977/oh...ks/?page=entire

[IAMX 3,055]

Republicans haven't been afraid to throw black people's votes out to try and win an election. Happened with fliers tossed around in Ohio, disproportionate voting machines in large precincts laden with minorities who tend not to vote Republican, happened with Katherine Harris. Wonder what happened to the Democrat-backed stance against disenfranchisement. Looks like it went down the toilet with all of the other "change" promises.

[MichelleN 0]

Ugh how depressing....

I hear Canada's nice this time of year....