Georgia/Russia Conflict

[Brad and Vika 129]

I saw that this morning too. But of course it was America. Anything we can do to provoke the Russians into getting their troops to overwhelm a smaller country is in our best interest.

You know, when the truth doesn't suit you, invent something. If you tell it enough times it must be the truth.

What's really sad now, is Georgia has lost a significant part of their country and they never really worked on a solution that could have been beneficial for all. From what I've read, a good portion of each of these regions is populated by Georgians, not Russians. So, what about these people, are they the silent majority?

Somehow you, as well as US media, forget to mention people who live in these "Georgian" regions.. They are NOT georgians or russians. There must be a reason why these regions are called Abhazia and Ossetia. Did it occur to anyone that these are actually nations, live people, with their own languages, history, culture???

It takes at least some knowledge of basic facts to make a more or less reasonable opinion. Of course unless you are ####### or Condi or a retard.

This conflict is about 700 years old. Abhazians and Ossetians just do not want to be a part of Georgia, not 700 years ago, not after wars of 1992, and especially not after Georgians bombed Tsginval at night, with all civilian population in it.

I know that US schools are not the best in the world in history or geography, so we probably just have to be glad average american does not think Russians are in Atlanta.

But hey, who cares anyway? After Iraq and Afghanistan and ones before them, anyone can bomb anyone, as long as they have a will and means.

As I have said before, the world is full of ethnic/cultural groups that do not feel that they are a part of the countries where they reside. No group can claim LEGITIMATE independence by virtue of their dissatisfaction OR by virtue of recognition by one major power and its satellites. Only widespread international support will do, and that is how stability is maintained, and borders are kept constant. So some of the S. Ossetians feel like they are not happy as Georgians, and DEFINITELY eventually want to be part of Russia - SO WHAT? When the Chechens believed they should NOT be part of Russia, was that OK? Of course not. Chechnya is a part of Russia, and NO one country can reset the border unilaterally. Why should Georgia and the international community tolerate unilateral independence of Chechnya if Russia itself doesn't? And please save the "in the anals of history" and "do more research" ####### arguments. Russia should probably be hundreds of separate republics and autonomous regions based on that kind of history and research. Internationally recognized borders must be respected unless there is a UN recognised cause to discuss altering them. This is true in Georgia, Iraq, and everywhere else.

I noticed that posters who advocated Russian action in Georgia as a purely defensive course that will be over in a few days got very quiet lately. Now there is open talk of annexation of Crimea. What will be the rationalization for this?

[mox 298]

Internationally recognized borders must be respected unless there is a UN recognised cause to discuss altering them. This is true in Georgia, Iraq, and everywhere else.

I agree with you in the general case Brad, but the problem you often get is that the people who live within these borders could give a flying you-know-what what the UN or anyone else thinks. They identify very strongly with a certain ethnic or social group, and they feel very strongly about it. Try to enforce a border that cuts them off from this identity, and you have a problem. That's one of the reasons Iraq is such a mess. Artificial borders are forcing two completely different ethnic groups to co-exist in a political environment that is satisfactory to neither. You might as well try to force red ants and black ants into the same ant hill.

The de facto situation as it stood before July seemed to be working before Saakashvili decided it was time for a change. Hopefully we can see things go back to that, at least in the near term. I don't know what the long term solution is in South Ossetia though. Clearly, forcing these people to be Georgian is not going to work, and clearly ceding South Ossetia over to Russia isn't going to work either. There needs to be some leadership from the West to help reach a settlement before it sets off a very big and very bad domino effect, which is why I'm really hoping the situation sort of simmers until after January when a new administration takes office. And by new administration, I mean a new Democratic administration because there's everything to suggest that McCain will be Bush years 9-12. I shudder to think about Russian relations under a McCain presidency. Things could get very VERY bad, very VERY quickly. Which is not to say that I've heard anything from the Obama camp to suggest he understands the situation in its entirety either, but unlike McCain, at least Obama's first inclination won't be to piss them off mightily.

[Brad and Vika 129]

Internationally recognized borders must be respected unless there is a UN recognised cause to discuss altering them. This is true in Georgia, Iraq, and everywhere else.

I agree with you in the general case Brad, but the problem you often get is that the people who live within these borders could give a flying you-know-what what the UN or anyone else thinks. They identify very strongly with a certain ethnic or social group, and they feel very strongly about it. Try to enforce a border that cuts them off from this identity, and you have a problem. That's one of the reasons Iraq is such a mess. Artificial borders are forcing two completely different ethnic groups to co-exist in a political environment that is satisfactory to neither. You might as well try to force red ants and black ants into the same ant hill.

The de facto situation as it stood before July seemed to be working before Saakashvili decided it was time for a change. Hopefully we can see things go back to that, at least in the near term. I don't know what the long term solution is in South Ossetia though. Clearly, forcing these people to be Georgian is not going to work, and clearly ceding South Ossetia over to Russia isn't going to work either. There needs to be some leadership from the West to help reach a settlement before it sets off a very big and very bad domino effect, which is why I'm really hoping the situation sort of simmers until after January when a new administration takes office. And by new administration, I mean a new Democratic administration because there's everything to suggest that McCain will be Bush years 9-12. I shudder to think about Russian relations under a McCain presidency. Things could get very VERY bad, very VERY quickly. Which is not to say that I've heard anything from the Obama camp to suggest he understands the situation in its entirety either, but unlike McCain, at least Obama's first inclination won't be to piss them off mightily.

I hear you brau, but again, SO WHAT? If every group that felt disenfranchised was able to change borders or be independent at will, what nation would ever be secure? The problem in Georgia had apparently little to do with their national identity. After all, they are not asking to be independent, the minority are asking to be Russian. Except for those villages that were torched, I mean. Russia does not understand diplomacy unless it comes from strength. That is why Georgian diplomacy never got any traction, the country wasn't strong enough. Don't talk to the bear, that is useless. Kick the bear (not poke the bear) is the ticket. Obama-esque dialogue will NEVER be taken seriously by Russia. They respect only strength. They threaten to point nukes at Warsaw? We will point nukes at Moscow. Aim missiles at Prague? Good, we were looking for a reason to aim at Novgorod. They won't like it, but they will listen after that.

[mox 298]

Kick the bear (not poke the bear) is the ticket. Obama-esque dialogue will NEVER be taken seriously by Russia. They respect only strength. They threaten to point nukes at Warsaw? We will point nukes at Moscow. Aim missiles at Prague? Good, we were looking for a reason to aim at Novgorod. They won't like it, but they will listen after that.

History doesn't back you up on this. Ronald Reagan is given a lot of credit for taking down the Soviet Union, but the strongest words he ever used with them was his "take down this wall" speech. But that was after 2 very historic summits wherein Reagan and Gorbechev simply sat down and talked to each other. Granted the USSR was headed towards collapse anyway, but those 2 summits did more for world peace than just about anything else.

Russia really doesn't want war, but they're not about to allow NATO to completely surround them. And honestly, can you blame them? The US has been acting like a colonial power for the last 8 years. If I were Russian, I would not trust the US or NATO at all. So it's only natural that they're going to posture. The trick for the US then is going to be to convince the Russians that we really are their friends, and that can only be done through dialogue.

For this group, it shouldn't be hard to understand this. When you need something from your Russian girl, what works best...a direct confrontation, or something a little more subtle? The Russian character responds much better to subtlety.

[Brad and Vika 129]

Kick the bear (not poke the bear) is the ticket. Obama-esque dialogue will NEVER be taken seriously by Russia. They respect only strength. They threaten to point nukes at Warsaw? We will point nukes at Moscow. Aim missiles at Prague? Good, we were looking for a reason to aim at Novgorod. They won't like it, but they will listen after that.

History doesn't back you up on this. Ronald Reagan is given a lot of credit for taking down the Soviet Union, but the strongest words he ever used with them was his "take down this wall" speech. But that was after 2 very historic summits wherein Reagan and Gorbechev simply sat down and talked to each other. Granted the USSR was headed towards collapse anyway, but those 2 summits did more for world peace than just about anything else.

Russia really doesn't want war, but they're not about to allow NATO to completely surround them. And honestly, can you blame them? The US has been acting like a colonial power for the last 8 years. If I were Russian, I would not trust the US or NATO at all. So it's only natural that they're going to posture. The trick for the US then is going to be to convince the Russians that we really are their friends, and that can only be done through dialogue.

For this group, it shouldn't be hard to understand this. When you need something from your Russian girl, what works best...a direct confrontation, or something a little more subtle? The Russian character responds much better to subtlety.

Funny stuff dude! Even Russian internal politics back me up. The only thing Russian diplomats ever recognized was the stick behind the carrot. Andropov never listened to diplomatic niceties, any more than crazy Kim does in North Korea today. They took what they could by threat of force. Putin gets his popularity from his perceived strength. Talk is cheap, and Russia gets that. Willingness to talk before action is seen as weakness too. What they know also is that NATO absent the US has no will to engage them over tiny Georgia. So they do as they will. The situation will continue until Russia perceives that another major power is willing to piont a gun back at them over something. Then they will listen. Not agree...but listen.

[mox 298]

Funny stuff dude! Even Russian internal politics back me up. The only thing Russian diplomats ever recognized was the stick behind the carrot. Andropov never listened to diplomatic niceties, any more than crazy Kim does in North Korea today. They took what they could by threat of force. Putin gets his popularity from his perceived strength. Talk is cheap, and Russia gets that. Willingness to talk before action is seen as weakness too. What they know also is that NATO absent the US has no will to engage them over tiny Georgia. So they do as they will. The situation will continue until Russia perceives that another major power is willing to piont a gun back at them over something. Then they will listen. Not agree...but listen.

I didn't say to argue from weakness. You make a point of the stick behind the carrot, but what I'm saying is to lead with the carrot. It works a lot better.

[Brad and Vika 129]

Funny stuff dude! Even Russian internal politics back me up. The only thing Russian diplomats ever recognized was the stick behind the carrot. Andropov never listened to diplomatic niceties, any more than crazy Kim does in North Korea today. They took what they could by threat of force. Putin gets his popularity from his perceived strength. Talk is cheap, and Russia gets that. Willingness to talk before action is seen as weakness too. What they know also is that NATO absent the US has no will to engage them over tiny Georgia. So they do as they will. The situation will continue until Russia perceives that another major power is willing to piont a gun back at them over something. Then they will listen. Not agree...but listen.

I didn't say to argue from weakness. You make a point of the stick behind the carrot, but what I'm saying is to lead with the carrot. It works a lot better.

No doubt. And the US is a colonial power, without the stones to name colonies. That is the strength I am talking about. So let's bring Ukraine into NATO, and point the stick - er, gun back. Then our diplomatic overtures will be taken seriously.

Edited August 30, 2008 by Brad and Vika

[mox 298]

/relNo doubt. And the US is a colonial power, without the stones to name colonies. That is the strength I am talking about. So let's bring Ukraine into NATO, and point the stick - er, gun back. Then our diplomatic overtures will be taken seriously.

I don't know if you're old enough to have gone through the cold war, but I have no desire to go back to those days. What you're talking about leads straight down that hole, and worse, because Russia will not back down to a show of strength. You're talking about playing a game of chicken where nobody is going to swerve.

And colonialism has proven disasterous time and time again. Colonialism and Democracy make a terrible, terrible combination.

[Fedup 0]

So let's bring Ukraine into NATO, and point the stick - er, gun back. Then our diplomatic overtures will be taken seriously.

Lol, you are funny.. that is the part of the problem, the US way of thinking, this side of the ocean. Without having a clue what the European reality is.

Do you really think that Norway or Greece would really risk Athens or Oslo for Kiev ?

The NATO reasoning for existence is gone long time ago, show of NATO strength in Afghanistan does not look convincing either. And just about any phrase from US that starts with "let's... " is not being met with overwhelming enthusiasm in the rest of the world in the last 10 years or so.

Russia will do as it pleases in it's backyards, and nobody will have a will or strength to do anything about it, at least in the next 20 years. Condi's barking is nothing but barking.

[mox 298]

So let's bring Ukraine into NATO, and point the stick - er, gun back. Then our diplomatic overtures will be taken seriously.

Lol, you are funny.. that is the part of the problem, the US way of thinking, this side of the ocean. Without having a clue what the European reality is.

Do you really think that Norway or Greece would really risk Athens or Oslo for Kiev ?

The NATO reasoning for existence is gone long time ago, show of NATO strength in Afghanistan does not look convincing either. And just about any phrase from US that starts with "let's... " is not being met with overwhelming enthusiasm in the rest of the world in the last 10 years or so.

Russia will do as it pleases in it's backyards, and nobody will have a will or strength to do anything about it, at least in the next 20 years. Condi's barking is nothing but barking.

Mostly agreed, especially on the US way of thinking, but I don't think it's a forgone conclusion that Russia will be able to do anything they want if the West plays its cards right. Russia wants to be an economic powerhouse. I think there's a lot of opportunity to convince Russia that it's in their best interest to play nicely.

[Brad and Vika 129]

/relNo doubt. And the US is a colonial power, without the stones to name colonies. That is the strength I am talking about. So let's bring Ukraine into NATO, and point the stick - er, gun back. Then our diplomatic overtures will be taken seriously.

I don't know if you're old enough to have gone through the cold war, but I have no desire to go back to those days. What you're talking about leads straight down that hole, and worse, because Russia will not back down to a show of strength. You're talking about playing a game of chicken where nobody is going to swerve.

And colonialism has proven disasterous time and time again. Colonialism and Democracy make a terrible, terrible combination.

I agree about colonianism, but let's call a spade a spade here. I also agree that Russia won't back down to a show of strength any more than America will. We are not talking about getting any one to back down (at least I'm not). We are talking about the ability to voice a position that will be taken seriously. Russia knows that no one will send troops to defend Georgia, and no country has agreed to do so - so there is no threat, and whining about sanctions or failure to abide by agreements is ignored. The Russian government doesn't even argue the point, they just dismiss it. On the other hand, they get pretty wound up about missile defense in Poland, primarily because Russian protests and threats about it are ignored.

No one wants another cold war, but we may have to use that threat to get everyone to the table.

[Ilya R. 0]

/relNo doubt. And the US is a colonial power, without the stones to name colonies. That is the strength I am talking about. So let's bring Ukraine into NATO, and point the stick - er, gun back. Then our diplomatic overtures will be taken seriously.

I don't know if you're old enough to have gone through the cold war, but I have no desire to go back to those days. What you're talking about leads straight down that hole, and worse, because Russia will not back down to a show of strength. You're talking about playing a game of chicken where nobody is going to swerve.

And colonialism has proven disasterous time and time again. Colonialism and Democracy make a terrible, terrible combination.

I agree about colonianism, but let's call a spade a spade here. I also agree that Russia won't back down to a show of strength any more than America will. We are not talking about getting any one to back down (at least I'm not). We are talking about the ability to voice a position that will be taken seriously. Russia knows that no one will send troops to defend Georgia, and no country has agreed to do so - so there is no threat, and whining about sanctions or failure to abide by agreements is ignored. The Russian government doesn't even argue the point, they just dismiss it. On the other hand, they get pretty wound up about missile defense in Poland, primarily because Russian protests and threats about it are ignored.

No one wants another cold war, but we may have to use that threat to get everyone to the table.

You seem to not mind another cold war if you are willing risk threats that might lead to one.

[Brad and Vika 129]

So let's bring Ukraine into NATO, and point the stick - er, gun back. Then our diplomatic overtures will be taken seriously.

Lol, you are funny.. that is the part of the problem, the US way of thinking, this side of the ocean. Without having a clue what the European reality is.

Do you really think that Norway or Greece would really risk Athens or Oslo for Kiev ?

The NATO reasoning for existence is gone long time ago, show of NATO strength in Afghanistan does not look convincing either. And just about any phrase from US that starts with "let's... " is not being met with overwhelming enthusiasm in the rest of the world in the last 10 years or so.

Russia will do as it pleases in it's backyards, and nobody will have a will or strength to do anything about it, at least in the next 20 years. Condi's barking is nothing but barking.

What European reality would that be? Would it be the reality where Russia is able to say "do what we want, or we will invade your country"? That reality? Because we all know that when Russia threatens to point missiles at another country, or invades and occupies it, or cuts off its supply of oil to force compliance is greeted by SOOO much more enthusiasm by the rest of the world. How is having a soviet-type boot on your neck better than not? Now that is a truly funny European reality (but maybe I am just clueless...Lol).

[Fedup 0]

No one wants another cold war, but we may have to use that threat to get everyone to the table.

That threat ended up with Georgia loosing Ossetia and Abhazia.

Another threat will end up with some other former USSR republic ceasing to exist.

Or with "missile shield" on Cuba or Venezuela.

Same old ####. So do not say "no one wants cold war but... "

Same old US excuse, nobody wants war, but we will bomb Iraq and Afghanistan to oblivion, just to show that we can, etc.

It will only lead to loosening of standards, old story with same old ending. Everything did, does and will have a reaction from the either side.

At least until someone gets hurt. So I would say it's a good thing for now for Georgia to get hurt, neocons PNAC dudes played their little game there, it did not work out, at least it was not Poland or Hungary.

And I bet most Russians feel the same way: "but we may have to use that threat to get everyone to the table", but about kicking Georgia back under the table.

Diplomacy and international relations are always a matter of more than one opinion/side/country, so it is most helpful to be able to look at issues from other side too. Most in Europe or Asia understand this, unfortunately very few here do.

[Korat 0]

Very one sided article.

Waste of time

You say that about any piece of information that shows Georgia as not being the boogeyman. Do you hate Georgians?

MOst Russians do have a dislike of "Cherni ludi"

Like I said before, I wore Georgian jersey in Moscow, would not be served. Changed sweater, served right away.