The Ebb and flow of the first 5 years of the Iraq War

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The war has ebbed and flowed for five years along three overlapping currents, cascading through seven major phases and numerous sub-phases as illustrated in Figure 1, which displays U.S. military fatalities per week for the entire duration of the war.

Figure 1. U.S. Soldiers Killed in Iraq – Five Years Ending March 19, 2008

Total Fatalities Weekly With 4 Week Moving Average Trend Line, Currents and Phases

(A) and (B) denote extended periods of decline in the Fatalitiy Trend Line from comparative highs to extreme lows

This Figure includes a four-week moving-average trend line, which delineates the underlying rhythm in the weekly data and reveals the phases of the war, which are identified by the peaks and valleys in the trend line, as follows:

Military Conflict

1. Invasion: Mar. 19, 2003 until the fall of Baghdad, Apr. 9, 2003

2. Occupation: Apr. 10, 2003 until the Anniversary Insurgency, Mar. 6, 2004

a. Initial occupation: Apr. 10, 2003 through the second anniversary of 9/11 (2003)

b. Insurgency unleashed: Sept. 12, 2003 through Nov. 20, 2003

c. Counteroffensive: Nov. 21, 2003 through Mar. 6, 2004

3. Escalation: Mar. 7, 2004 until the National Assembly election, Jan. 30, 2005

a. Anniversary Insurgency: Mar. 7, 2004 through the transfer of sovereignty, June 28, 2004

b. Resistance to sovereignty and U.S. Election: June 29, 2004 through Nov. 2, 2004

c. Fallujah Offensive (and Iraqi Election): Nov. 3, 2004 through Jan. 30, 2005.

Battle for Political Control

4. Iraqi elections: Jan. 31, 2005 through the parliamentary election on Dec. 15, 2005.

a. National Assembly elected: Jan. 31, 2005 until its first meeting, Mar. 17, 2005.

b. Transitional Government established: Mar. 18, 2005 until May 11, 2005.

c. Constitution drafted: May 12, 2005 until Aug. 28, 2005.

d. Constitution approved: Aug. 29, 2005 until Oct. 15, 2005.

e. Council of Representatives elected: Oct. 16, 2005 until Dec. 15, 2005.

Grinding Civil Strife

5. U.S. disengagement attempted: Dec. 16, 2005 through Sep. 22, 2006.

a. Civil Strife dominates: Dec. 16, 2005 until April 21, 2006

b. Iraqi Government forms and Zarqawi is killed: Apr. 22, 2006 until June 7, 2006

c. Iraqi’s Baghdad Defense Plan, reinforced by the U.S.: June 8, 2006 until Sep. 22,

2006.

6. Insurgent Offensive: Sep. 23, 2006 until September 11, 2007

a. U.S. fatalities escalate during Ramadan, Baghdad Defense Plan fails: Sep. 23, 2006 until

Oct. 22, 2006

b. The U.S. mid-term election and its aftermath: Oct. 23, 2006 until Jan. 9, 2007

c. U.S. surge strategy announced and implemented: Jan. 10, 2007 until February 14, 2007

d. U.S. efforts intensified and insurgents respond: February 15, 2007 until June 15, 2007

e. Surge of Operations begins: June 16, 2007 until September 11, 2007

7. Sustained U.S. Surge of Operations: September 12, 2007 until March 19, 2008

a. Insurgents retreat: September 12, 2007 until December 31, 2007

b. Insurgents show signs of resurgence: January 1, 2008until March 19, 2008

The first current, Military Conflict, and the first phase, Invasion, resulted in high numbers of U.S. troop fatalities as major combat operations of the war began. With the fall of Baghdad and the beginning of the second Occupation phase, fatalities declined and stayed at comparatively low levels for nearly a year. Phase three, Escalation, which began with the Anniversary Insurgency in March 2004, as insurgents killed four U.S. contractors and hung their bodies from a bridge in Fallujah, marked a substantial increase in fatalities, causing Year 2 of the war to be the most lethal for U.S. forces, with over 900 dead, along with nearly 8,500 wounded. With the start of phase four, the Iraqi Elections, in January 2005 however, casualties moderated, as the second current, Battle for Political Control began, and factions competed for power in the political as well as the military sphere. Progress in the political arena, prompted the U.S. to attempt disengagement during phase five, encouraged by an extended period of decline in U.S. fatalities through March 2006, the longest and steepest such period of decline during the war up to that point. In contrast to the decline in U.S. deaths, however, Iraqi fatalities skyrocketed, punctuated by the bombing of the Askariya mosque in February 2006. This marked the start of the third current, Grinding Civil Strife, and derailed attempts by U.S. forces to disengage as they assumed primary responsibility for providing security to the Iraqi public. Within half a year, with the start of Ramadan in September 2006, phase six, the Insurgent Offensive, began and extended into Year 5.

http://www.icasualties.org/oif/PDF/PerspectiveOnYear5.pdf