Clinton will concede tonight

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

I heard ole' Terry this morning on TV. It's over.

[GaryC 7]

I heard ole' Terry this morning on TV. It's over.

Really? That isn't what he is saying now. Sorry Dog, it isn't over until Aug.

Clinton not ready to concede race, her campaign chair says

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sen. Hillary Clinton's is "absolutely not" prepared to concede the race for the Democratic presidential nomination to Sen. Barack Obama, her campaign chairman said.

Terry McAuliffe rejected as "100 percent" incorrect an Associated Press report that Clinton is preparing to acknowledge that Obama has the delegates to win the nomination Tuesday night as the five-month Democratic primary process comes to a close.

Obama "doesn't have the numbers today, and until someone has the numbers the race goes on," McAuliffe told CNN.

Clinton continues to fight Obama in the Democratic primary season. Some 61 contests over six months will end Tuesday as Montana and South Dakota hold primaries.

Only 31 pledged delegates are at stake in those two contests.

Obama is just 42 delegates shy of the 2,118 now needed to clinch the nomination. There are not enough pledged delegates at stake in Montana and South Dakota to put Obama over the top, but a rush of endorsements by the remaining undeclared "superdelegates" could allow him to claim victory when he takes the stage in Minnesota Tuesday evening.

Superdelegates are the approximate 825 Democratic governors, members of Congress, and party officials who each get to vote in the delegate nominating process. Around 200 of them have yet to endorse either Obama or Clinton.

In a bit of symbolism, Obama will spend Tuesday night at a rally at the Excel Energy Center in Saint Paul, Minnesota, the same arena which will house the 2008 Republican National Convention in September. Clinton will spend the night at an campaign event in New York City. What she will say is the question of the night.

Obama is looking more and more toward a likely general election matchup with John McCain, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee. And while not taking anything for granted, it appears he's starting to look at Clinton as less of a rival and more as an important ally who can help him win in November.

"We're getting very close to the number that will, that will give us the nomination and if we've hit that number on Tuesday night, then we will. We will announce that and I think even if we don't, this is the end of the primary season, and I think it's very important for us to focus on the clear contrast that's going to exist between Democrats and Republicans in this election," Obama said this weekend while campaigning in South Dakota.

"Sen. Clinton is an outstanding public servant, she has worked tirelessly on this campaign, she has been a great senator for the state of New York and she is going to be a great asset when we go into November to make sure that we defeat the Republicans," Obama said on the campaign trail Sunday in South Dakota, adding Monday in Michigan that "she and I will be working together." Video Watch Obama vow the party will come together after the primary »

Clinton's road to capturing the nomination is much longer and more difficult. She trails Obama by 159 delegates and is 201 delegates shy of capturing the nomination. Her main shot at winning now appears to depend on a mass wave of superdelegate support, which seems unlikely. See what's next for Clinton »

Clinton's been making the case for weeks now that she's ahead in the popular vote in the primaries and caucuses to date. Much of this argument hinges on how Michigan's disputed primary is counted. If Obama is awarded no votes, since his name wasn't on the ballot, Clinton leads by 194,000 in the popular vote count. If Obama is awarded the 40 percent who voted uncommitted in the primary, he's ahead of Clinton by 45,000 votes in the overall count. Video Watch Clinton outline her optimism »

"The Clinton campaign is making every effort to convince superdelegates she is the best qualified and most electable Democrat to take on John McCain in November. The problem for Clinton is that it seems a little bit too late for her argument to stick even if these superdelegates did embrace her assertion that she is the leader in the popular vote," said Mark Preston, CNN political editor.

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CNN senior political correspondent Candy Crowley reported that "only a handful of people at the inner core of the Clinton campaign knows what she's thinking about doing when Tuesday's dust settles, adding that "those who have been with her since nearly the beginning are saying she will not push this into the convention. As one close Clinton supporter put it, she's acutely aware of her place in the party. She will not ruin the party."

Clinton scored a large victory Sunday in Puerto Rico's primary. It could be a different story in Montana, where Obama is ahead in the most recent polls. Obama campaigned in the state late last week, before stumping over the weekend in South Dakota. Clinton spent Monday in South Dakota. A new poll out Monday in that state puts Clinton up by double digits. But regardless of the results, Tuesday night is much more about the big picture than about who won which primary.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/03/ele...rats/index.html

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

CNN.COM

Sorry Dog.

I ain't sweating this. It's over. Terry said as much this morning: As soon as Obama has 2118, Hillary will call and congratualte him.

I heard ole' Terry this morning on TV. It's over.

Really? That isn't what he is saying now. Sorry Dog, it isn't over until Aug.

Clinton not ready to concede race, her campaign chair says

Yes, really. It's over. Hold on to your little candy there while you can.

[GaryC 7]

CNN.COM

Sorry Dog.

I ain't sweating this. It's over. Terry said as much this morning: As soon as Obama has 2118, Hillary will call and congratualte him.

Keep hanging on that hope Dog. Your in for a real let down though.

[SteveLaura 0]

"100% inaccurate" may only describe the timing, ie. tonight, not the concession itself.

[GaryC 7]

CNN.COM

Sorry Dog.

I ain't sweating this. It's over. Terry said as much this morning: As soon as Obama has 2118, Hillary will call and congratualte him.

I heard ole' Terry this morning on TV. It's over.

Really? That isn't what he is saying now. Sorry Dog, it isn't over until Aug.

Clinton not ready to concede race, her campaign chair says

Yes, really. It's over. Hold on to your little candy there while you can.

It's over because you say so? Hmm.. I didn't know you were the ultimate political power in the country.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Ickes has been on cable news in the last hour saying Obama won't be the nominee, they are going to Denver.

[GaryC 7]

Ickes has been on cable news in the last hour saying Obama won't be the nominee, they are going to Denver.

Yep, but you better call Ickes and tell him Dog says its over.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Ickes has been on cable news in the last hour saying Obama won't be the nominee, they are going to Denver.

Ickes.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

The Clintons and senior advisors have been left waiting for a political miracle: “What story about him will break, what video tape will come out, or what’s going to happen.”

The video tape was a reference to a rumor, reproduced online and on cable television, and much discussed within Clinton’s circle -- though without a shred of credible sourcing -- that Republicans have a damaging video of Obama’s wife, Michelle.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/10795.html

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Ickes has been on cable news in the last hour saying Obama won't be the nominee, they are going to Denver.

Yep, but you better call Ickes and tell him Dog says its over.

There are dozens of Democrats with votes that will tell him. Loud and clear. There's no support in the party for a convention fight. Hillary risks her political career if she listens to Ickes. She knows that and she won't. Prominent backers of Hillary have already stepped forward to say that they want a nominee this week. Hillary said last week that a nominee will be decided this week. As much as you wish, this isn't going to Denver. But go ahead and fantasize with ole' Harold on this nonsense.

[SteveLaura 0]

She insists that her lead in the popular vote, which was increased by Saturday's decision to count Florida and Michigan, gives her a mandate to continue the race for the Democratic party nomination.

That is also why she was hoping for a high turn out in Puerto Rico - but in the end it was actually very low.

Source

I believe she wants to bow out with that flimsy argument intact - that she won the popular vote. Hence, she still wants people to show up and vote today. It's politics. It's not rocket science.

[GaryC 7]

Ickes has been on cable news in the last hour saying Obama won't be the nominee, they are going to Denver.

Yep, but you better call Ickes and tell him Dog says its over.

There are dozens of Democrats with votes that will tell him. Loud and clear. There's no support in the party for a convention fight. Hillary risks her political career if she listens to Ickes. She knows that and she won't. Prominent backers of Hillary have already stepped forward to say that they want a nominee this week. Hillary said last week that a nominee will be decided this week. As much as you wish, this isn't going to Denver. But go ahead and fantasize with ole' Harold on this nonsense.

Keep telling yourself this Dog. You have been disputing what I have been saying for months and for months I have been right every time. Keep hanging on that hope, it's all you have.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Further Reasons For Skepticism on That Michelle Obama Tape

The preponderance of the evidence now suggests that there's nothing there. One of the arguments that made me think there was some fire amid the smoke was the statement on Booman Tribune, attempting to explain that "why'd he" was being heard as "whitey." This sort of explanation suggested that someone — perhaps allied with the Obama campaign? Someone in attendance of the event? — wanted to explain what people would be hearing on the tape, which suggested that there was a tape, and that some words that sounded like "why'd he"/"whitey" could be heard. The listing of specifics of the comment — Medicaid/Katrina/Jena/Iraq — also suggested someone had heard the comment, and wanted to put it in context...

But now I find that apparently Booman Tribune was merely paraphrasing another blogger's prediction of what would be on the tape if it ever surfaced. No one claimed to have seen the tape.

Without that, what are we left with? Larry Johnson, a vehemently pro-Hillary and anti-Obama blogger, who in the past was running around telling people Karl Rove was about to be indicted. Republican political consultant Roger Stone, saying he believes it exists. I'm hearing from other reporters that their (secondhand, of course) sources are calling back and adding that they saw Louis Farrakhan on the tape, a detail that they didn't mention before Johnson's update of 9 this morning. Does the presence of Farrakhan seem like a detail that's easy to forget?

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But right now I think the evidence suggests this is a hoax, and that we will never see tape of Michelle Obama saying these particular controversial remarks. The timing of this rumor's surfacing is conveniently perfect to scare superdelegates, and the idea that it's in the hands of sinister Republicans explains why fans of Hillary are eager to talk about it but unable to produce it.

UPDATE: I hear from many readers that Bob Beckel said Tuesday morning on Fox & Friends, that a "bomb" was going to drop tomorrow, regarding Michelle Obama. Asked if it was "worse than a college thesis?" Bob said yes, I am told. He said that the Republicans were behind it and it was dumb because it meant that Mrs. Clinton would be the nominee.

I note that despite my readers' hopes, this fits the pattern for rumors like this — they're always simultaneously vague but hyped to be huge, and they're always coming just around the corner. Like I said, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but this could easily be a lot of folks chasing the same rumors...

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Ickes has been on cable news in the last hour saying Obama won't be the nominee, they are going to Denver.

Yep, but you better call Ickes and tell him Dog says its over.

There are dozens of Democrats with votes that will tell him. Loud and clear. There's no support in the party for a convention fight. Hillary risks her political career if she listens to Ickes. She knows that and she won't. Prominent backers of Hillary have already stepped forward to say that they want a nominee this week. Hillary said last week that a nominee will be decided this week. As much as you wish, this isn't going to Denver. But go ahead and fantasize with ole' Harold on this nonsense.

Keep telling yourself this Dog. You have been disputing what I have been saying for months and for months I have been right every time. Keep hanging on that hope, it's all you have.

How have you been right? You said this is dragging into August and into the convention and I said it'll be done prior. At the end of the week is my latest prediction - I said at the end of June before that. Until either prediction point arrives, it's a bit premature to make the statement you make. So, if at the end of the week, Obama is not the nominee, then you can say that I got it wrong. Until then, you have nothing of fact to base that assessment on.