The Clinton campaign - what went wrong

[Peikko 1,575]

I am not so certain that the 'people' in general view the economy in those terms though. It seems there is; what the economy is doing, what the politicians tell us the economy is doing, and what people percieve they have been told by the politicians as to what the economy is doing.

I think there are a lot of independants who don't like where they think the economy is, but don't see how someone as 'inexperienced' as Barack in their eyes is, can fix it. The will probably worry more about that, than what McCain might not do as it were. More of the same can be "safer" than change to someone who doesn't really understand what Barack is telling them. I think part of the fault in that lies in the fact that Barack is not prepared to put meat on his bones of what he wants to do.

There are 82% of the population that feel the country is on the wrong track. McSame hasn't offered anything with the exception of environmental policy that would suggest that he'll take the country onto the right tracks. The people in general know that they're worse off today than they were 5 years ago. The Consumer confidence index is the worst we've seen in 28 years or so. Not exactly good news for the candidate that promotes more of the same.

McCain may represent more of the same to you, but I disagree that that is how he is percieved by the majority of independants. On the economy McCain does have the edge in perception terms. If Barack wishes to win, he needs to focus more on real policies and what he actually plans to do to improve the economy. If it goes on what people percieve each candidate will do, McCain will win because Barack is seen as not having enough experience ( the economy is a trust issue with voters) to 'change' the economy for the better. I am guessing that there are a bunch of independants that have a warm fuzzy feeling about the Reagan era and will 'hope' that a McCain vote will lead the economy in that direction.

As I said before, I really do think that Barack needs to change his keynote speaches to include some meat. The bones of change are enough to claim victory as the nominee because among Dems he is preaching to the converted. Among independants the message of change is flimsy.

[Peikko 1,575]

It is in areas like this that Hillary would have had the edge. The independants wouldn't have had such an easy choice between 'age and experience' and 'youth and the untried'.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

I am not so certain that the 'people' in general view the economy in those terms though. It seems there is; what the economy is doing, what the politicians tell us the economy is doing, and what people percieve they have been told by the politicians as to what the economy is doing.

I think there are a lot of independants who don't like where they think the economy is, but don't see how someone as 'inexperienced' as Barack in their eyes is, can fix it. The will probably worry more about that, than what McCain might not do as it were. More of the same can be "safer" than change to someone who doesn't really understand what Barack is telling them. I think part of the fault in that lies in the fact that Barack is not prepared to put meat on his bones of what he wants to do.

There are 82% of the population that feel the country is on the wrong track. McSame hasn't offered anything with the exception of environmental policy that would suggest that he'll take the country onto the right tracks. The people in general know that they're worse off today than they were 5 years ago. The Consumer confidence index is the worst we've seen in 28 years or so. Not exactly good news for the candidate that promotes more of the same.

McCain may represent more of the same to you, but I disagree that that is how he is percieved by the majority of independants.

And that perception is unfounded when you look at McSame's record. This will be a major component of the campaign. McSame isn't near the Maverick on the issues that matter as one might have been led to believe. I think the Obama campaign is looking forward to that discussion.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

It is in areas like this that Hillary would have had the edge. The independants wouldn't have had such an easy choice between 'age and experience' and 'youth and the untried'.

Spare me the Hillaryland electability #######. If she was more electable, she would be the front runner. Take a look: she isn't.

[Peikko 1,575]

Barack will have to be extremely good to be able to convince people that his 'youth and inexperience' on the economy are worth more than McCain's 'age and experience. I really think on this you are expecting voters to understand politics better than they really do and a simple call for change and a an attack on McCain's record isn't going to be enough in my opinion. Still, time will indeed tell.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Barack will have to be extremely good to be able to convince people that his 'youth and inexperience' on the economy are worth more than McCain's 'age and experience. I really think on this you are expecting voters to understand politics better than they really do and a simple call for change and a an attack on McCain's record isn't going to be enough in my opinion. Still, time will indeed tell.

Time will indeed tell. To be sure, this thing isn't wrapped up at all just yet. Obama has a hard job in front of him. As does McCain. McCain will be busy defending a perception that isn't backed by his record. Without that perception, he's not gonna make it. And that perception will vanish as his record becomes the subject of public debate. McCain is a hard core Republican to the right of GWB. The campaign will bear that out.

[Peikko 1,575]

It is in areas like this that Hillary would have had the edge. The independants wouldn't have had such an easy choice between 'age and experience' and 'youth and the untried'.

Spare me the Hillaryland electability #######. If she was more electable, she would be the front runner. Take a look: she isn't.

You are not understanding what I am saying. Forget who is better than who and look at how the voters percieve things. Barack is the front runner and about to become the nominee because of many factors but the most important thing to understand is that for the most part, it is Democrats who are voting in the nomination race (forget the ####### about operation chaos, that's just an irrelevance). These voters believe in the Democratic vision - they believe that the country needs a Democratic president and they love Barack's freshness.

However, in the election Barack has to convince not only Democrats, but independants. If he forgets that then he is a gonner in my opinion. Independants will not look at all the 'glossy' stuff, they will look at the brass tacks. If the economy is a deciding factor Barack will have to work very hard to convince independants that the Dems will not make the economy worse and if they have to put their trust in one of the candidates (which for the most part most voters do when it comes to the economy) they will put their trust in the 'tried and tested' UNLESS Barack makes a better shift at convining voters that DESPITE his youth and inexperience he has a real handle on the economy.

I am talking strictly on the economy, but I do believe that this will come into play in regards foreign policy as well. Now, you can simply dismiss what I am saying as rubbish - the Hillary bot view of the world if you like - but the fact is, I am not wedded to Hillary nor am I a McCain fan and if I had to choose between the two, I would probably vote for Barack but I wouldn't be 100% confident in my choice either because of the lack of information on what he really plans to do if elected.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

It is in areas like this that Hillary would have had the edge. The independants wouldn't have had such an easy choice between 'age and experience' and 'youth and the untried'.

Spare me the Hillaryland electability #######. If she was more electable, she would be the front runner. Take a look: she isn't.

You are not understanding what I am saying. Forget who is better than who and look at how the voters percieve things. Barack is the front runner and about to become the nominee because of many factors but the most important thing to understand is that for the most part, it is Democrats who are voting in the nomination race (forget the ####### about operation chaos, that's just an irrelevance). These voters believe in the Democratic vision - they believe that the country needs a Democratic president and they love Barack's freshness.

Coincidentally, Obama was doing much better in those states that had open primaries (i.e. not only registered Democrats could cast their ballot) as opposed to those that were restricted to registered Democrats only. What that says - and what just about all polling supports - is that he is doing better with the independent voter than Hillary. And as you said earlier, it is precisely that crowd that will swing this thing one way or the other in November. From a purely Democrat perspective, Hillary would probably come out ahead. But that alone isn't good enough to prevail in November. Which is why I think it is pretty clear that Obama is the more electable Democrat and the one more likely to defeat McCain.

Edited May 31, 2008 by Mr. Big Dog