mydd.com: Obama will cross delegate threshold by late next week

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Barack Obama ... predicted that after the last primaries, "whatever remaining super delegates will make their decisions pretty quickly after that."

"If we've got the number of delegates to secure the nomination," Obama said, "then I'm the nominee."

"It is technically not over until we have the number of delegates that are needed to secure the nomination. Once we have that number, then we'll focus on the general election," he said.

So when might he have the magic number? Well, that depends what that magic number is.

As of now, in a world in which Florida and Michigan don't count and 2026 delegates are needed to win the nomination. According to DemConWatch, Obama has 1981 delegates to Hillary Clinton's 1781. 45 to go.

...

Now let's recalculate according to what is probably the most optimistic result from Saturday's RBC meeting: the Michigan and Florida delegations seated at half strength.

Again, according to DemConWatch, splitting the difference between the current non-MI & FL threshold (2026) and the full strength threshold (2209) we get a new threshold of 2117.5. Which means on top of the pledged delegates Obama is likely to get from the three remaining contests, he would need 94.5 delegates to clinch the nomination. Subtract the 34.5 Florida delegates he'd be awarded under this scenario, then he'd need only 60 between the RBC's Michigan delegate allotment and any superdelegates who may declare for Obama in that period.

...

In other words, it's difficult to see Obama not clinching and declaring mid to late next week.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/29/16243/6325

[one...two...tree 2,762]

I had read something similar about a week ago. The Rules Committee will be making a decision soon on MI and FL, but whatever resolution they decide, it will be fair which means it will not hinder Obama's inevitable nomination.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Here's a good resource. Goes through different scenarios and lays out the math for each.

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/fl...numbers_21.html

No matter what the Hillbots have said in the last few weeks, it's about the math and always has been.

Enjoy. This will be over soon

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

It's about time for that long awaited 3am phone call.