NYC fiscal monitor sees imminent recession, less severe job impact than recession of 2001

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

An imminent recession could cost New York City 59,400 jobs between now and the middle of next year, with the profit-stricken financial sector the "epicenter" of the downturn, a report said on Tuesday.

This would amount to one-quarter of the hiring by private employers after the 2001 recession, according to the Independent Budget Office, a fiscal monitor that serves as the city's equivalent of the Congressional Budget Office.

But the previous downturn, which accelerated after the September 11, 2001 attacks, will still turn out to have been more severe, as employers cut about 43 percent of jobs added in the expansion that lasted from 1993 to 2000, the report said.

Although the data are still too ambiguous to determine whether New York City is already in a recession, the report said the "Independent Budget Office is forecasting that a local recession is imminent, if it has not begun already." No recovery is seen until the second half of 2009.

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/i...0080520?sp=true

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Wow, 5 people reading the thread on $12 gas and no one reading this one. Good news no good?

[AlHayatZween 2]

Hi Troll,

i was reading it...

i was just wondering to myself why the talking heads keep saying stuff like

"still too ambiguous to determine whether New York City is already in a recession"

when to me... i feel like there's not ambiguity about it... i see a lot of people getting laid off, and a lot of funding be cut, and it's harder to get a job now than it was just a year ago... that's all i was thinking.

and then i started thinking about my bike.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

i see a lot of people getting laid off, and a lot of funding be cut, and it's harder to get a job now than it was just a year ago... that's all i was thinking.

I understand that but 'recession' has a technical definition (two consecutive quarters of negative growth in gross product) which must be met before a recession can be officially called.

That doesn't mean that an economy not in recession can't be in poor shape. Clearly, it can.

[AlHayatZween 2]

i see what you are saying.

but you know what is interesting to me?

i see the media very careful about using the word "recession", but then every time you turn on the news or turn on your computer, all you are confronted with is gas prices, oil prices, lay-offs. i just checked my e-mail at MSN and one of the lead articles is about what we are going to do when gas hits $10 a gallon and no one can afford to fill their Honda Civics... how we will all have to start roof gardens.

it is nerve-wracking (at least for me). i think i might have to take a break from the news and media momentarily.

hz