Dude, where's my Great Depression?

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Whatever happened to the Great Depression?

...

I don’t know about you but I feel a bit cheated. There we all were, led to believe by so many commentators that the sub-prime crisis was going to force the United States into a new era of dust bowls and breadlines, a slump that would call into question the very functioning of the capitalist system in the world’s largest economy.

...

So far the Great Depression 2008 is shaping up to be a Great Disappointment ... Last week the Commerce Department reported that the US economy ... actually grew in the first three months of the year.

The rate of expansion – 0.6 per cent – was weak for sure, and it followed a previous quarter of identically weak growth at the end of 2007, but as Depressions go it was singularly unGreat. In the 1930s, you’ll recall, GDP fell by more than 25 per cent. Even the periodic mild recessions we’ve had in the past 20 years at least resulted in some declines in economic activity.

...

The labour market, the canary in the coalmine of economic data, is actually improving. The US economy lost 20,000 jobs in April, while the unemployment rate ticked down a little to 5 per cent. You don’t have to compare this performance to the Great Depression to think it looks, as downturns go, really quite uplifting. It is, in fact, the gentlest start to a period of labour market weakness since the 1960s.

For comparison, in the first four months of the 2001 recession (which was, by the way, the mildest one in postwar history) employment fell at an average monthly rate of 105,000. In the first four months of this current downturn, the average monthly job losses have been 62,000.

You won’t need me to remind you that in the other Great Depression unemployment rose to an estimated 30 per cent ... It is starting to look as though world financial markets might be past the worst of the crisis that started all this.

Financial conditions are cautiously returning to something approaching normal. Barometers of distress have shown a distinct turn for the better. Take, for example, the so-called TED spread, a pretty good proxy for the state of financial anxiety. It represents the difference between three-month Libor interest rates and the yield on three-month US Treasury bills. In other words, it measures how risky banks think lending to each other for relatively short periods is compared with the riskless alternative of lending to the Government.

Last Friday the spread fell to its lowest level since the end of February, shortly before the collapse of Bear Stearns. Now, at about 125 basis points, it is still elevated relative to periods of clear normality: the historic norm is between 25 and 50 points. But it’s way down from where it was in March, December and August, when it exceeded 200 points.

...

The picture is starting to look quite encouraging. Even if the US has a recession this year, the chances that it will turn into a full-blown slump are not high. Another disappointment for the hyperactive scribbling masses. But rather welcome news for everybody else.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle3876863.ece

[Ban Hammer 13,358]

there's always a sandbox you can practice in, i suppose.

[GaryC 7]

Certain factions in this country have been trying to talk our economy down for years. All you have to do is look at the regular posts here to see that. A bad economy will help those factions in the upcoming election. How many times have we seen polls that say, "well I am doing OK but I am worried about my neighbor"? Sure some sections of the country have taken a hit but things haven't been as bad as some want us to believe.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Sure some sections of the country have taken a hit but things haven't been as bad as some want us to believe.

Some sections? Actually, most Americans have taken a hit and that while the economy expanded. The median income has desreased during the last expansion cycle while the economic output increased. That simply means that most Americans fell off the wagon and don't get to share the prosperity gains. Most Americans. That's not some section, that's the majority of the country.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

But I everyone I know is doing well

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

But I everyone I know is doing well

Of course, you belong to a minority.

[dalegg 143]

For comparison, in the first four months of the 2001 recession (which was, by the way, the mildest one in postwar history) employment fell at an average monthly rate of 105,000. In the first four months of this current downturn, the average monthly job losses have been 62,000.

Man Bush is bad. He caused a recession just by entering the white house. We know this because Clinton had the economy humming, so it couldn't have been caused by him.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Man Bush is bad. He caused a recession just by entering the white house.

He is an evil wizard. The evil other Presidents need years to accomplish, he can with a single wave of his wand.

[Trumplestiltskin 5,791]

Man Bush is bad. He caused a recession just by entering the white house.

He is an evil wizard. The evil other Presidents need years to accomplish, he can with a single wave of his meat wand.

Fixed.

I couldn't resist

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

you sick, sick child

[amiquechu 0]

Man Bush is bad. He caused a recession just by entering the white house. We know this because Clinton had the economy humming, so it couldn't have been caused by him.

The tech bubble burst and began its mega-fall while Clinton was still in office. There's nothing any president could have done about people drooling over stocks that were incredibly stupid buys. Neither Clinton's nor Bush's fault there.

If you look at the DOW, it took a huge hit after 9/11. Again, nothing any president could have done about that. Since then, it's been on a steady trend upward.

To me, it seems like the economy's been pretty good for quite a while. Not great, but definitely good.

[GaryC 7]

Sure some sections of the country have taken a hit but things haven't been as bad as some want us to believe.

Some sections? Actually, most Americans have taken a hit and that while the economy expanded. The median income has desreased during the last expansion cycle while the economic output increased. That simply means that most Americans fell off the wagon and don't get to share the prosperity gains. Most Americans. That's not some section, that's the majority of the country.

Again with the Obama mantra? Your a walking political advertisement.

[sj5 4]

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Sure some sections of the country have taken a hit but things haven't been as bad as some want us to believe.

Some sections? Actually, most Americans have taken a hit and that while the economy expanded. The median income has desreased during the last expansion cycle while the economic output increased. That simply means that most Americans fell off the wagon and don't get to share the prosperity gains. Most Americans. That's not some section, that's the majority of the country.

Again with the Obama mantra? Your a walking political advertisement.

You have figures that prove my statement wrong? Can you show on official sources where the median income actually increased over thye past 7 years? The economic output certainly did, that's undisputed. So, show me where the median income went up between 2001 and today. If you can...

[greeneyedgirlfl 0]

The labour market, the canary in the coalmine of economic data, is actually improving. The US economy lost 20,000 jobs in April, while the unemployment rate ticked down a little to 5 per cent. You don’t have to compare this performance to the Great Depression to think it looks, as downturns go, really quite uplifting. It is, in fact, the gentlest start to a period of labour market weakness since the 1960s.

What kinds of jobs are being lost vs. created?

Sure, there are many low-paying service jobs being created, but not many that I could see supporting a family without additional employment.