Clinton Camp Says It Will Use The Nuclear Option

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Thomas B. Edsall, HP

Hillary Clinton's campaign today acknowledged plans to try to win seating of the disputed Michigan and Florida delegations to the Democratic Nation Convention at a meeting of the party's Rules and Bylaws Committee on May 31.

In a statement issued in response to a story on The Huffington Post ("Clinton Camp Considering Nuclear Option," see below), the campaign declared:

"There is no secret plan.... The Clinton campaign has been vocal in stating that the votes of 2.5 million people must be respected. Hardly a day goes by when a Clinton official doesn't publicly declare that the votes of Michigan and Florida count and that the delegations from those states should be seated."

The campaign's public assertions stand in contrast to its response to inquiries prior to publication of the story. At that point, Clinton aides insisted on keeping all comments either off the record or on deep background, or did not respond to questions at all. The campaign statement appeared to be designed to try to reduce the significance of the story.

In a more typical reaction to the story, political analyst Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia said: "Wow. The nuclear option will yield nuclear winter for the Democratic Party."

---

Hillary Clinton's campaign has a secret weapon to build its delegate count, but her top strategists say privately that any attempt to deploy it would require a sharp (and by no means inevitable) shift in the political climate within Democratic circles by the end of this month.

With at least 50 percent of the Democratic Party's 30-member Rules and Bylaws Committee committed to Clinton, her backers could -- when the committee meets at the end of this month -- try to ram through a decision to seat the disputed 210-member Florida and 156-member Michigan delegations. Such a decision would give Clinton an estimated 55 or more delegates than Obama, according to Clinton campaign operatives. The Obama campaign has declined to give an estimate.

Using the Rules and Bylaws Committee to force the seating of two pro-Hillary delegations would provoke a massive outcry from Obama forces. Such a strategy would, additionally, face at least two other major hurdles, and could only be attempted, according to sources in the Clinton camp, under specific circumstances:

First, this coming Tuesday, Clinton would have to win Indiana and lose North Carolina by a very small margin - or better yet, win the Tar Heel state. She would also have to demonstrate continued strength in the contests before May 31.

Second, and equally important, her argument that she is a better general election candidate than Obama -- that he has major weaknesses which have only been recently revealed -- would have to rapidly gain traction, not only within the media, where she has experienced some success, but within the broad activist ranks of the Democratic Party.

Under that optimistic scenario, some Clinton operatives believe she could overcome several massive stumbling blocks:

-- Clinton loyalists on the Rules Committee would have to be persuaded to put their political futures on the line by defying major party constituencies, especially black leaders backing Barack Obama. Committee members are unlikely to take such a step unless they are convinced that Clinton has a strong chance of winning the nomination.

Former DNC and South Carolina Democratic Party chair Donald Fowler -- a Hillary loyalist -- would, for example, face an outpouring of anger from South Carolina Democrats if he were to go along with such a strategy.

-- A controversial decision to seat the two delegations, as currently constituted, would be appealed by the Obama campaign to the Democratic National Convention's Credentials Committee.

The full make-up of the Credentials Committee will not be determined until all the primaries are completed, but the pattern of Clinton and Obama victories so far clearly suggests that Obama delegates on that committee will outnumber Clinton delegates. Obama will not, however, have a majority, according to most estimates, and the balance of power will be held by delegates appointed by DNC chair Howard Dean.

For the scenario to work, then, Dean would have to be convinced of Clinton's superior viability in the general election, and that she has a strong chance of defeating McCain next November.

One of the arguments the Clinton campaign is privately making to autonomous "super" or "automatic" delegates, as well as to delegates technically "pledged" to Obama as a result of primary and caucus results, is that the campaign shifted dramatically in roughly mid-February. At that point, Clinton supporters contend, the economy replaced Iraq as the dominant issue among primary voters, and that transition led to Clinton's successes in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.

Clinton people also make the case that the past six weeks have seen examples of Obama's political vulnerabilities: his wife's "proud to be an American" remarks, the emergence of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy, wider coverage of Obama's ties to 1960s radicals Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn, "bittergate," the flag pin imbroglio, and "hand on the heart" accusations -- all impugning Obama's patriotism.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/04/c...g_n_100051.html

[GaryC 7]

As I said Steven, she will not give up. This thing is going to the convention. Convinced yet?

[Sheriff Uling 3]

As I said Steven, she will not give up. This thing is going to the convention. Convinced yet?

She's going to pull a Gov Huckabee...

[one...two...tree 2,762]

As I said Steven, she will not give up. This thing is going to the convention. Convinced yet?

...and as I said, if she should choose to do the above, the repercussions will be cataclysmic. As the article explains, there's many variables that need to take place for her nuclear option to work. I don't see how the Rules and Bylaws Committee would seat FL and MI without some kind of reasonable compromise (splitting the delegates 50/50 for example). To simply seat them would not only be unfair to Obama, but would undermine the whole process. In other words, she would be gambling on hope that a committee whose focus is on the rules, to simply bend the rules to her benefit. Regardless of how many are Clinton loyalists on that committee, they'd all be committing political suicide and risk destroying the Party simply to help Hillary out.

Obama must rebound from the heavy hit of Rev. Wright, but Indiana and PA both were states that were Hillary's to win - he knew that all along. If she were to win NC - now that would be a spectacle, but I don't think she can make the case if she wins Indiana but loses NC tomorrow that somehow she's on the upswing. The delegate shift will go to Obama's advantage after tomorrow's Primaries with only 6 remaining contests.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

As I said Steven, she will not give up. This thing is going to the convention. Convinced yet?

Supers will run from her at a pace where it won't matter whether she succeeds at changing the rules of the game - rules she and her's were instrumental at setting last summer when they thought they'd have it all wrapped up by Super Tuesday without both of these states being counted, considered or looked at in any way, shape or form - after the game was played. I simply cannot imagine that the Dem's elders are going to watch - much less support - the annihilation of the Democratic party by the Clinton family at a point in time where they stand a good chance to not only re-capture the White House but also gain strength in the Congress. If they do, they'll deserve what they'll have coming to them.

Edited May 6, 2008 by Mr. Big Dog

[GaryC 7]

As I said Steven, she will not give up. This thing is going to the convention. Convinced yet?

...and as I said, if she should choose to do the above, the repercussions will be cataclysmic. As the article explains, there's many variables that need to take place for her nuclear option to work. I don't see how the Rules and Bylaws Committee would seat FL and MI without some kind of reasonable compromise (splitting the delegates 50/50 for example). To simply seat them would not only be unfair to Obama, but would undermine the whole process. In other words, she would be gambling on hope that a committee whose focus is on the rules, to simply bend the rules to her benefit. Regardless of how many are Clinton loyalists on that committee, they'd all be committing political suicide and risk destroying the Party simply to help Hillary out.

Obama must rebound from the heavy hit of Rev. Wright, but Indiana and PA both were states that were Hillary's to win - he knew that all along. If she were to win NC - now that would be a spectacle, but I don't think she can make the case if she wins Indiana but loses NC tomorrow that somehow she's on the upswing. The delegate shift will go to Obama's advantage after tomorrow's Primaries with only 6 remaining contests.

I know it would be cataclysmic. So does Hillary. She just does not care. Your making the assumption that she does. Mark my words Steven. As long as there is even a 0.5% chance she can get the nomination she will not quit. From what I see she will win big in IN. NC she has a fair chance of winning or at least losing by a very small margin. This will give her the support she needs to take her option and drop the big one on the dem party. She has a huge sense of entitellment. She thinks it "her turn" and no upstart from Chicago is going to stop her. The good thing for us (reps) is the chaos she will stir up will not only help McCain but more than likely give us back the Senate. She is cooking the dems political goose for sure.

As I said Steven, she will not give up. This thing is going to the convention. Convinced yet?

Supers will run from her at a pace where it won't matter whether she succeeds at changing the rules of the game - rules she and her's were instrumental at setting last summer when they thought they'd have it all wrapped up by Super Tuesday without both of these states being counted, considered or looked at in any way, shape or form - after the game was played. I simply cannot imagine that the Dem's elders are going to watch - much less support - the annihilation of the Democratic party by the Clinton family at a point in time where they stand a good chance to not only re-capture the White House but also gain strength in the Congress. If they do, they'll deserve what they'll have coming to them.

The dems have a track record of this very thing. Remember McGovern? That is how this SuperDelegate thing got started. And if she can manage to get FL and MI seated without changing the outcome of their elections she will not need very many of the SD. Don't put anything past her R. Trust me, the dems can screw themselves as well as the reps can. This time it's your turn to bend over.

Edited May 6, 2008 by GaryC

[one...two...tree 2,762]

As I said Steven, she will not give up. This thing is going to the convention. Convinced yet?

Supers will run from her at a pace where it won't matter whether she succeeds at changing the rules of the game - rules she and her's were instrumental at setting last summer when they thought they'd have it all wrapped up by Super Tuesday without both of these states being counted, considered or looked at in any way, shape or form - after the game was played. I simply cannot imagine that the Dem's elders are going to watch - much less support - the annihilation of the Democratic party by the Clinton family at a point in time where they stand a good chance to not only re-capture the White House but also gain strength in the Congress. If they do, they'll deserve what they'll have coming to them.

I disagree, Reinhard. There is a chance that Hillary can pull off an upset - if she wins both Indiana and NC tomorrow and the national polls continue to go in favor of her, the case could be made to go ahead and seat FL and MI, but just how they would seat the delegates is critical.

[GaryC 7]

As I said Steven, she will not give up. This thing is going to the convention. Convinced yet?

Supers will run from her at a pace where it won't matter whether she succeeds at changing the rules of the game - rules she and her's were instrumental at setting last summer when they thought they'd have it all wrapped up by Super Tuesday without both of these states being counted, considered or looked at in any way, shape or form - after the game was played. I simply cannot imagine that the Dem's elders are going to watch - much less support - the annihilation of the Democratic party by the Clinton family at a point in time where they stand a good chance to not only re-capture the White House but also gain strength in the Congress. If they do, they'll deserve what they'll have coming to them.

I disagree, Reinhard. There is a chance that Hillary can pull off an upset - if she wins both Indiana and NC tomorrow and the national polls continue to go in favor of her, the case could be made to go ahead and seat FL and MI, but just how they would seat the delegates is critical.

Ah good, your starting to see the light. Unfortunatly for you its the train coming right at you.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

As I said Steven, she will not give up. This thing is going to the convention. Convinced yet?

Supers will run from her at a pace where it won't matter whether she succeeds at changing the rules of the game - rules she and her's were instrumental at setting last summer when they thought they'd have it all wrapped up by Super Tuesday without both of these states being counted, considered or looked at in any way, shape or form - after the game was played. I simply cannot imagine that the Dem's elders are going to watch - much less support - the annihilation of the Democratic party by the Clinton family at a point in time where they stand a good chance to not only re-capture the White House but also gain strength in the Congress. If they do, they'll deserve what they'll have coming to them.

I disagree, Reinhard. There is a chance that Hillary can pull off an upset - if she wins both Indiana and NC tomorrow and the national polls continue to go in favor of her, the case could be made to go ahead and seat FL and MI, but just how they would seat the delegates is critical.

Ah good, your starting to see the light. Unfortunatly for you its the train coming right at you.

I'm just shaking my head in disbelief. Barack has put himself in a tight corner...I think he'll prevail in the end, but it's not going to be pretty.

[GaryC 7]

As I said Steven, she will not give up. This thing is going to the convention. Convinced yet?

Supers will run from her at a pace where it won't matter whether she succeeds at changing the rules of the game - rules she and her's were instrumental at setting last summer when they thought they'd have it all wrapped up by Super Tuesday without both of these states being counted, considered or looked at in any way, shape or form - after the game was played. I simply cannot imagine that the Dem's elders are going to watch - much less support - the annihilation of the Democratic party by the Clinton family at a point in time where they stand a good chance to not only re-capture the White House but also gain strength in the Congress. If they do, they'll deserve what they'll have coming to them.

I disagree, Reinhard. There is a chance that Hillary can pull off an upset - if she wins both Indiana and NC tomorrow and the national polls continue to go in favor of her, the case could be made to go ahead and seat FL and MI, but just how they would seat the delegates is critical.

Ah good, your starting to see the light. Unfortunatly for you its the train coming right at you.

I'm just shaking my head in disbelief. Barack has put himself in a tight corner...I think he'll prevail in the end, but it's not going to be pretty.

Believe it Steven, believe it. She will take the entire dem party down with her if she has to. The cartoon in your siggy isn't a joke, it's a prediction.

[Trompe le Monde 1,107]

Steve - did you just admit that BO might not be the nominee? Just checking to make sure my eyes are working properly and all

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

As I said Steven, she will not give up. This thing is going to the convention. Convinced yet?

Supers will run from her at a pace where it won't matter whether she succeeds at changing the rules of the game - rules she and her's were instrumental at setting last summer when they thought they'd have it all wrapped up by Super Tuesday without both of these states being counted, considered or looked at in any way, shape or form - after the game was played. I simply cannot imagine that the Dem's elders are going to watch - much less support - the annihilation of the Democratic party by the Clinton family at a point in time where they stand a good chance to not only re-capture the White House but also gain strength in the Congress. If they do, they'll deserve what they'll have coming to them.

I disagree, Reinhard. There is a chance that Hillary can pull off an upset - if she wins both Indiana and NC tomorrow and the national polls continue to go in favor of her, the case could be made to go ahead and seat FL and MI, but just how they would seat the delegates is critical.

I said so in another thread. If she manages to pull off a win in NC tomorrow, the game will fundamentally change. Short of that, my statement stands.

[GaryC 7]

If Hillary wins both IN and NC tomorrow this will be the dem party:

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Here's something worth noting...

Over the last several weeks, we've seen a few items explaining just how difficult it would be for Hillary Clinton to catch up to Barack Obama, but Ezra reminds us today that "the math is harder for Clinton to make up with every passing day."

There simply aren't enough contests remaining for Clinton to close the gap among pledged delegates, and Obama's lead is also out of reach: "If you add Florida, where neither campaigned, she's still 300,000 votes behind. If you cheat and add Michigan, where Obama wasn't on the ballot, and you give him the 'uncommitted' voters (as some Clintonites have suggested), she's still 188,000 votes behind. If you do all of that, and then Clinton wins every remaining contest by 10 points, according to Rick Hertzberg's calculations, she'll still be 160,000 votes behind. And that doesn't even include Obama's caucusgoers [in Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and Washington state], who aren't in the straight popular votes tally. Point being: She's not making up the popular vote either."

So, what does this tell us? That Clinton needs to win over about two-thirds of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates, which would be quite a challenge.

I'm struck, however, by the fact that Clinton doesn't seem to be targeting superdelegates much at all. To be sure, the remaining superdelegates who are on the fence are no doubt the target of an intense lobbying campaign from the Clinton (and Obama) team. But what I'm talking about is the public face of Team Clinton — shouldn't they be doing more to impress the very small target audience that could give Clinton the boost she needs?

There have been two weeks since the Pennsylvania primary. The first week, Clinton was fairly aggressive in claiming that she now has the popular vote lead. That might work on a lay audience that's unsure of the details, but superdelegates tend to be pretty well-informed insiders who are not easily taken in by dubious talking points. Clinton was pushing an argument that was very unlikely to work on those she needs to win over.

This past week, Clinton was extremely aggressive in pushing for a "gas-tax holiday," blasting anyone who dared to take reality seriously as an over-educated elitist who'd been bought off by Big Oil. Again, superdelegates surely saw through this rather pathetic pandering, which, again, seems counterintuitive — Clinton's argument seems aimed at low-information voters, when she should be aiming for high-information voters.

Shouldn't she?

http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/

[GaryC 7]

Here's something worth noting...

Over the last several weeks, we've seen a few items explaining just how difficult it would be for Hillary Clinton to catch up to Barack Obama, but Ezra reminds us today that "the math is harder for Clinton to make up with every passing day."

There simply aren't enough contests remaining for Clinton to close the gap among pledged delegates, and Obama's lead is also out of reach: "If you add Florida, where neither campaigned, she's still 300,000 votes behind. If you cheat and add Michigan, where Obama wasn't on the ballot, and you give him the 'uncommitted' voters (as some Clintonites have suggested), she's still 188,000 votes behind. If you do all of that, and then Clinton wins every remaining contest by 10 points, according to Rick Hertzberg's calculations, she'll still be 160,000 votes behind. And that doesn't even include Obama's caucusgoers [in Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and Washington state], who aren't in the straight popular votes tally. Point being: She's not making up the popular vote either."

So, what does this tell us? That Clinton needs to win over about two-thirds of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates, which would be quite a challenge.

I'm struck, however, by the fact that Clinton doesn't seem to be targeting superdelegates much at all. To be sure, the remaining superdelegates who are on the fence are no doubt the target of an intense lobbying campaign from the Clinton (and Obama) team. But what I'm talking about is the public face of Team Clinton — shouldn't they be doing more to impress the very small target audience that could give Clinton the boost she needs?

There have been two weeks since the Pennsylvania primary. The first week, Clinton was fairly aggressive in claiming that she now has the popular vote lead. That might work on a lay audience that's unsure of the details, but superdelegates tend to be pretty well-informed insiders who are not easily taken in by dubious talking points. Clinton was pushing an argument that was very unlikely to work on those she needs to win over.

This past week, Clinton was extremely aggressive in pushing for a "gas-tax holiday," blasting anyone who dared to take reality seriously as an over-educated elitist who'd been bought off by Big Oil. Again, superdelegates surely saw through this rather pathetic pandering, which, again, seems counterintuitive — Clinton's argument seems aimed at low-information voters, when she should be aiming for high-information voters.

Shouldn't she?

http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/

Your still forgetting those pesky states of FL and MI. If she gets those results counted she will be ahead in the popular vote and even in pledged delegates. That changes everything.