Superdelegate and Former DNC Chairman Paul Kirk endorses Obama

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... the Obama campaign rolls out another former DNC chairman's endorsement on Friday: Paul Kirk, a superdelegate who led the party from 1985-1989, is coming out for Obama -- a day after Andrew's switch, an Obama campaign official tells The Note.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/Sto...5288&page=1

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worth noting...

As the numbers continue to shake out from Pennsylvania, we're downsizing Clinton's margin of victory in Pennsylvania to 12 pledged delegates, an 85-73 split in her favor. NBC News currently calculates an 83-to-73 split with two delegates remaining to be allocated, which we predict will go to Clinton based on her share of the total votes in the state.

Obama also picked up a pledged delegate from the Edwards camp in Iowa, bringing his pre-March 4 figure to 1,208, according to the Iowa Independent (hat tip: Ben Smith). Factoring this in, Obama currently leads Clinton by 155 pledged delegates, with 408 still up for grabs in the nine remaining contests. Clinton needs to win the remaining contests by an average of 38 points to tie Obama in pledged delegates.

For those who follow the Delegate Calculator, the sort of revision we see in Pennsylvania may sound familiar. While delegates have generally divided in proportion to the popular vote in the Democratic primary, as the calculator assumes they will prior to an election, the actual count will inevitably vary by a few delegates as district-by-district numbers are tallied. An updated audit of the calculator, based on 29 Democratic primaries, finds that these predictions are off by an average of 2.8 percent for Clinton and 2.5 percent for Obama.

It's worth noting that the revisions tend to favor the loser. Final or nearly final delegate numbers from the primaries in Alabama, Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin have all resulted in margins slightly smaller than the margin of the popular vote. The same holds for the caucuses in Alaska, Hawaii, Kansas, and Nevada. Examples of the opposite—where the winning candidate netted even more delegates than the popular vote would predict—are fewer and include states like Illinois and Arkansas where lopsided victories in favor of the native son or daughter make conventional wisdom less relevant.

http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

Edited May 2, 2008 by Jabberwocky

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Clinton needs to win the remaining contests by an average of 38 points to tie Obama in pledged delegates.

It's not about pledged delegates anymore. Obama's win in that category is assured and Hillary has no realistic hope of overtaking him.

Now it's about superdelegates. Hillary needs to get more of them than Obama, so she can eat into his pledged delegate lead.

So far, she is running ahead of him in that category.

Hillary's march to the nomination continues. Uninterrupted.

Edited May 2, 2008 by VJ Troll

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Clinton needs to win the remaining contests by an average of 38 points to tie Obama in pledged delegates.

It's not about pledged delegates anymore. Obama's win in that category is assured and Hillary has no realistic hope of overtaking him.

Now it's about superdelegates. Hillary needs to get more of them than Obama, so she can eat into his pledged delegate lead.

So far, she is running ahead of him in that category.

Hillary's march to the nomination continues. Uninterrupted.

"All of this I have foreseen."

[Sheriff Uling 3]

I wonder does any of his friends call him Capt Kirk... Hmmmm...