HC leads nomination race by 2 points, leads in other races

[no name 1]

Thursday, May 01, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that Barack Obama’s former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright, has had a significant impact on the race for the White House. The news is not good for Obama.

In general election polling John McCain now attracts 46% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 43%. Just before Wright had his press conference on Monday, McCain and Obama were even. A week ago, Obama had a two-point edge. McCain is now tied with Hillary Clinton at 44%. A week ago, McCain had a two-point edge over the former First Lady.

Those figures mean that Clinton now outperforms Obama by three points. A week ago, Obama outperformed Clinton by four. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily results). New polling in New Hampshire shows that Clinton has gained ground on McCain in the Granite State while Obama is heading in the opposite direction. That poll also found significant voter concerns about Obama and his former Pastor.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, the Wright impact is especially evident. Clinton now has a statistically insignificant two-point edge over Obama, 46% to 44%. However, that represents a ten-point swing since Wright’s press conference. Before Pastor Wright appeared at the National Press Club, Obama led Clinton by eight points (see recent Democratic Nomination results)

In Indiana, Clinton leads Obama by five points. In North Carolina Obama leads. Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama continues to be the favorite for the Democratic nomination, but expectations have slipped significantly in recent days. Currently, the frontrunner is given a 74.5 % chance of winning.

link

Daily polling on rasmussen:

05/01/2008 Clinton 46% / Obama 44%

04/30/2008 Clinton 43% / Obama 47%

04/29/2008 Clinton 41% / Obama 49%

Edited May 1, 2008 by illumine

[SMOKE 1,426]

i wouldn't be suprised if wright cost him the nomination. several people i know have told me...the anti-america..anti-whitey ####### his spiritual leader has been spewing & his clinging statements have changed their minds. they will be voting for hillary (if she can pull it out) or mccain.

[no name 1]

i wouldn't be suprised if wright cost him the nomination. several people i know have told me...the anti-america..anti-whitey ####### his spiritual leader has been spewing & his clinging statements have changed their minds. they will be voting for hillary (if she can pull it out) or mccain.

I have some Chicago relatives who are changing their minds now....

[no name 1]

Yet another gem...

Hillary Clinton has edged ahead of Barack Obama, 49% to 45%, in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106945/Gallup-D...9-Obama-45.aspx

[no name 1]

National Polls: Obama's Lead Vanishes

Posted by TOM BEVAN

May 1, 2008

Two more new national polls confirming the rather dramatic tightening we've seen recently. First, Pew Research (April 23-27) shows Clinton gaining ground and Obama dropping a bit, turning a ten-point lead in March to just a two-point lead this month:

Obama 47 (-2 vs. last poll March 19-22)

Clinton 45 (+6)

CNN's new national survey (April 28-30) shows a different dynamic producing a similar result: Clinton hasn't gained at all, but Obama has lost a significant chunk of ground.

Obama 46 (-6 vs. last poll March 14-16)

Clinton 45 (nc)

Overall, after reaching a high point of 10.4% on the day of the Pennsylvania primary nine days ago, Obama's lead over Clinton in the RCP National Average has plummeted to just 1.6%.

Here's a look at the RCP Average from April 1 through today:

In the general election match ups, Clinton and Obama both beat McCain by similar margins in both polls:

CNN: Obama 49 - McCain 45

Pew: Obama 50 - McCain 44

CNN: Clinton 49 - McCain 44

Pew: Clinton 49 - McCain 45

Overall, Clinton leads McCain by 3.1% in the RCP General Election Average, while Obama leads McCain by 0.9%.

link

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Problem for Hillary is that the nomination is not decided by Gallup.

[no name 1]

Problem for Hillary is that the nomination is not decided by Gallup.

To quote yourself: You can read, can't you?

There's 4 different polls quoted above!

Edited May 1, 2008 by illumine

[HAL 9000 96]

Man I'm going to feel REALLY bad for our friends here if Hillary ends up losing the nomination...

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Problem for Hillary is that the nomination is not decided by Gallup.

To quote yourself: You can read, can't you?

There's 4 different polls quoted above!

Yes, and even if there were a hundred of then, none of them decides the nomination.

[no name 1]

Problem for Hillary is that the nomination is not decided by Gallup.

To quote yourself: You can read, can't you?

There's 4 different polls quoted above!

Yes, and even if there were a hundred of then, none of them decides the nomination.

No, they are polls. You do know what a poll is, right? To judge the voters? She has not been ahead for months & now she is, in many polls. Tuesday si goign to be such sweet karma for Obama.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Man I'm going to feel REALLY bad for our friends here if Hillary ends up losing the nomination...

Well, she's sure losing her sense of reality.

Clinton said those who say she should get out of the race "don't understand politics or history."

Maybe someone ought to tell Hillary that taking the nomination fight all the way to the convention didn't work for the Dems in 1980, it work for them in 1968 and it didn't work for the Republicans in 1976. In fact, I am not sure that there was ever a successful candidate born out of a nomination battle at a convention.

Problem for Hillary is that the nomination is not decided by Gallup.

To quote yourself: You can read, can't you?

There's 4 different polls quoted above!

Yes, and even if there were a hundred of then, none of them decides the nomination.

No, they are polls. You do know what a poll is, right? To judge the voters? She has not been ahead for months & now she is, in many polls. Tuesday si goign to be such sweet karma for Obama.

All your polls aside, she can't catch up with him. It's just that simple.

Edited May 1, 2008 by Mr. Big Dog

[no name 1]

Problem for Hillary is that the nomination is not decided by Gallup.

To quote yourself: You can read, can't you?

There's 4 different polls quoted above!

Yes, and even if there were a hundred of then, none of them decides the nomination.

No, they are polls. You do know what a poll is, right? To judge the voters? She has not been ahead for months & now she is, in many polls. Tuesday si goign to be such sweet karma for Obama.

All your polls aside, she can't catch up with him. It's just that simple.

You & Steven must be having fun in fantasy land.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Problem for Hillary is that the nomination is not decided by Gallup.

To quote yourself: You can read, can't you?

There's 4 different polls quoted above!

Yes, and even if there were a hundred of then, none of them decides the nomination.

No, they are polls. You do know what a poll is, right? To judge the voters? She has not been ahead for months & now she is, in many polls. Tuesday si goign to be such sweet karma for Obama.

All your polls aside, she can't catch up with him. It's just that simple.

You & Steven must be having fun in fantasy land.

Math is stubborn. Not that you'd know but it is stubborn. Hillary's only way to the nomination is against the expressed will of the voters. Those are the numbers. They're cold and hard. And they don't care what you want to believe them to be.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Maybe someone ought to tell Hillary that taking the nomination fight all the way to the convention didn't work for the Dems in 1980, it work for them in 1968 and it didn't work for the Republicans in 1976. In fact, I am not sure that there was ever a successful candidate born out of a nomination battle at a convention.

Reinhard, I think you were right yesterday...if Obama reaches the needed 2,024 delegates by June, Hillary will concede. I'd love to here somebody get her to commit to such a promise, but hopefully she'll do the right thing for the Party and concede once Obama reaches 2,024. I can't say the same for Dev and metta though...they may keep fighting for Hillary long after she's out of it.

[Sheriff Uling 3]

Illumine - I'm presuming that you will be one of the 29% of Clinton voters who would vote for McCain rather than support your party. Hmmm...