Brazile for Hillary?

[metta 0]

Brazile for Hillary?

on April 28, 2008 at 10:54 PM

Senator Hillary Clinton had a point when she declared that the "tide is turning" after her impressive victory in Pennsylvania last week.

Since then, senior Party leaders have been speaking up, and changing their tune.

Not too long ago, Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean was urging unpledged "super delegates" to decide "now!" and warning them not to overturn the "will of the people." But in the past week Dean's message has changed significantly. A few days ago he told the Financial Times that "The Democratic party's "superdelegates" have every right to…choose the candidate they believe would be best equipped to defeat John McCain in a general election." And today ABC News reported that Dean wants the super delegates to make a decision by the end of June, after all the voters have "had their say."

Donna Brazile, a super delegate who has previously expressed a preference for Obama may be having second thoughts. Yesterday on ABC's This Week Roundtable Brazille said:

I talked to the same super delegates you talked to…They want to win. They want a candidate who can beat John McCain. At the end of the day they're going to look at the (electoral college) math…and say.."okay,

who is the best candidate to take on John McCain?

" They'll look at the weaknesses of both candidates and…

we will determine who will be the best President.

(emphasis added)

Ms. Brazile's remarks are timely. Perhaps she received a heads-up about the new AP General Election poll released today:

Clinton 50: McCain 41

Obama 46: McCain 44

Of special note to super delegates is the AP's accompanying analysis explaining the upward trends for Clinton:

Helped by independents, young people and seniors,

Clinton gained ground.

"I don't think there's any question that over the last three weeks her stature has improved," said Harrison Hickman, a Democratic pollster unaligned in the primary. He attributed Clinton's gains to people moving from the "infatuation stage" of choosing the candidate they like the most to a "decision-making stage" where they determine who would make the best president.

Added Steve Lombardo, a GOP pollster: "This just reinforces the sentiment that a lot of Republican strategists are having right now — that Clinton might actually be the more formidable fall candidate for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is that Obama can't seem to get his footing back." (emphasis added)

Is Donna Brazile acknowledging that Clinton is the more formidable candidate against John McCain?

Other polls demonstrate similar strength for Clinton. According to Real Clear Politics averages, for example: Clinton and McCain are tied in Florida, while Obama trails McCain by 12 points; Clinton leads McCain in Pennsylvania and Ohio by more than 5 points, while Obama trails McCain in both states.

At this moment, the MyDD 2008 Poll Watcher at the top corners of your screen also predicts an electoral victory for Clinton but a loss for Obama: Clinton 286 to McCain 252 and McCain 278 to Obama 243.

Clinton's wins in California, Pennsylvania, Texas, Ohio, New Jersey, Florida, and New York, despite Obama's historic advertising expenditures, reinforce her campaign's claim to a winning coalition of core Democrats. I have previously written about that here and here.

As the AP noted in its analysis, Clinton has even gained strength among young people.

And Politico commented yesterday:

Barack Obama's difficulty attracting older voters now far exceeds Hillary Rodham Clinton's own weaknesses with youth.

Repeatedly during the tight race for the Democratic presidential nomination, Obama, who's been defined in part by his popularity among young voters, has seen that strength undercut by his failings with seniors.

In the Pennsylvania and Ohio primaries, Obama lost older whites by 30 percentage points, while Clinton split white voters under age 30 in both critical contests. Obama's senior problem is even greater among Hispanics. The Illinois senator lost older Latinos by 40 to 60 percentage points in Texas, New Mexico and California.

For all the excitement generated by Obama's campaign, and despite his laudable success in caucus states, Obama has failed to draw critical blocs of Democrats into his coalition, a problem which has been exacerbated by off-the-record remarks belittling small-town Americans and ongoing coverage of his fiery pastor. These are not just "gaffes" that Sen. Obama can cleverly manage; rather they contribute to core perceptions. It's not difficult to comprehend why 32% of Clinton supporters in Pennsylvania recently told a pollster that they would never vote for Barack Obama.

Donna Brazile and the other super delegates clearly are paying attention.

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[Ban Hammer 13,651]

Brazile for Hillary?

whew, i thought she was gonna move there.