McCain runs strong as Democrats battle on

[GaryC 7]

McCain runs strong as Democrats battle on

By Susan Page, USA TODAY

Why is this man smiling?

Arizona Sen. John McCain could understandably be scowling: He could face a more difficult political landscape than any presidential candidate in a generation.

Only 39% of Americans have a favorable view of the Republican Party he represents, the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows. A record 63% say the Iraq war he defends was a mistake. The disapproval rating for President Bush, the incumbent McCain has embraced, has hit 69%, the most negative assessment of any president since Gallup began asking the question 70 years ago.

Yet in what seems to be the most promising election for Democrats since 1976 — when the aftermath of the Watergate scandal opened the door for Democrat Jimmy Carter to win the presidency — the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows the presumptive Republican presidential nominee within striking distance of either Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

"Sen. McCain will not be a pushover in Ohio," cautions Ted Strickland, the Democratic governor of one of the nation's most important battleground states. "It will be a hotly contested race."

At least at the moment, McCain's personal qualities — his stature as a Vietnam war hero, reputation as an independent-minded Republican and persona as a strong leader — are trumping the significant policy disadvantages he faces in pursuing a third consecutive term for the GOP in the White House.

The protracted and increasingly bitter rivalry between Obama and Clinton for the Democratic nomination is a boost for McCain, too.

He has stayed competitive by drawing support from unlikely quarters.

One in four voters who say the invasion of Iraq was a mistake back him, as do one in four who disapprove of Bush. In a worrisome sign for Democrats, one in five Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they'll switch to McCain if the Democrats don't nominate Obama; another one in five say they'll switch if the party doesn't nominate Clinton.

Tim Quinn, 61, of Brewster, N.Y., is an independent voter who calls the invasion of Iraq "a big mistake" and criticizes Bush's actions as president. Even so, he's supporting McCain.

"He has taken unpopular positions over the years, and even though I don't agree with a lot of them, I believe he's a man of character," says Quinn, an IT project manager who was among those surveyed. "He's a man of character while the other two will say whatever it takes to get votes."

A general election many Democrats assumed six months ago would be difficult to lose seems a little less of a sure thing.

At the beginning of the year, many polls showed a generic, unidentified Democratic presidential candidate thumping a generic Republican by close to 20 percentage points.

In the USA TODAY Poll taken April 18-20, however, McCain kept the contest against Obama and Clinton within the survey's margin of error. Obama led McCain 47%-44% among registered voters. Clinton led 50%-44%.

Republicans lined up more solidly behind McCain than Democrats did behind Obama. Nine of 10 Republicans backed the Arizona senator, compared with eight of 10 Democrats who supported the Illinois senator. Each got equal support, 8%, from members of the other party.

They split independents: 46% for Obama, 42% for McCain. (The divide in a Clinton-McCain matchup was similar.)

"Some of it defies the philosophy or ideology of John McCain and gets into John McCain the American hero, John McCain the maverick Republican, John McCain the antithesis of the Democratic and independent voters' stereotypes of Republicans," says Bill Carrick, a Democratic strategist based in California. "He looks much stronger in these polls than any other imaginable Republican nominee would be."

USA TODAY combined the responses in nationwide surveys taken over the past two months to get a large enough sample to analyze the demographics of some of McCain's surprising backers: Americans who disapprove of Bush. Those voters, who make up more than a third of McCain's support, presumably would be the first target of a Democratic opponent.

Almost all of them were white, and most were middle-aged. Many were blue-collar workers. Slightly more were male than female. Almost half were independents; one in five were Democrats.

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