CNN - Hillary Wins PA

[Dan J 277]

Okay, so if you throw out Michigan completely she gains almost 300,000 from Florida alone (870,986 to 576,214). So now you're talking a difference of just over 200,000 nationwide. Not impossible to makeup. Of course she's going to have to do something about North Carolina, but I think at least you can see her case for sticking it out.

Still has a bad smell - it smells bad if you need to change the rules you agreed to after the game is played in order to make your case. Just won't work.

Also, it isn't decided by the popular vote. It's the delegate & the superdelegate case that counts.

News is saying she picked up an extra 8 delegates.

It is not decided by popular vote, not directly anyway. But popular vote is the basis for any argument that Clinton would use in pursading the superdelegates, so in a weird way, it could all be decided by popular vote, or an interpretation of the popular vote.

[Caladan 19]

Right, but she's not ahead in the popular vote, and likely isn't going to get there (remaining states just don't have the numbers.)

[Trompe le Monde 1,107]

the general election is not decided by popular vote - something to think about

[Dan J 277]

Right, but she's not ahead in the popular vote, and likely isn't going to get there (remaining states just don't have the numbers.)

If michigan were to count, she could be. Thats enough to keep this thing going.

But your right, this was her last big chance to make a comeback, most of the other states are smaller and will likely cancel each other out in gains for either candidate.

[Caladan 19]

The general election looks nothing like the primary, really.

[Trompe le Monde 1,107]

The general election looks nothing like the primary, really.

no it doesn't

do you think Obama will win the general election? Do you think he can win swing states like MO, MI, PA, OH and NM? Can he win enough traditionally republican states?

[Caladan 19]

Right, but she's not ahead in the popular vote, and likely isn't going to get there (remaining states just don't have the numbers.)

If michigan were to count, she could be. Thats enough to keep this thing going.

But your right, this was her last big chance to make a comeback, most of the other states are smaller and will likely cancel each other out in gains for either candidate.

It's all about the superdelegates at this point, barring someone dying. I honestly think whether MI and FL are counted or not really won't end up mattering, because anyone considering them would think of them as having a little asterisk next to them anyway.

The general election looks nothing like the primary, really.

no it doesn't

do you think Obama will win the general election? Do you think he can win swing states like MO, MI, PA, OH and NM? Can he win enough traditionally republican states?

He doesn't need all of those to win. And to be honest, I don't know, but if you'd asked me a year ago whether a black man would have won Iowa, I'd probably have given it long odds.

Do you think Clinton's likely to take any of those states?

[Trompe le Monde 1,107]

Right, but she's not ahead in the popular vote, and likely isn't going to get there (remaining states just don't have the numbers.)

If michigan were to count, she could be. Thats enough to keep this thing going.

But your right, this was her last big chance to make a comeback, most of the other states are smaller and will likely cancel each other out in gains for either candidate.

It's all about the superdelegates at this point, barring someone dying. I honestly think whether MI and FL are counted or not really won't end up mattering, because anyone considering them would think of them as having a little asterisk next to them anyway.

The general election looks nothing like the primary, really.

no it doesn't

do you think Obama will win the general election? Do you think he can win swing states like MO, MI, PA, OH and NM? Can he win enough traditionally republican states?

He doesn't need all of those to win. And to be honest, I don't know, but if you'd asked me a year ago whether a black man would have won Iowa, I'd probably have given it long odds.

Do you think Clinton's likely to take any of those states?

I think believe she would/could take them, yes.

What does Obama need to win the general election, if he doesn't need to take swing states or a few red states?

Edited April 23, 2008 by rkl57

[Caladan 19]

I didn't say he couldn't take them; I said he doesn't need them all, and I'd give him decent odds at all of them. I'd give Clinton roughly the same, except that I worry that her marvelous PA victory depended rather heavily on the PA governor's support, which, given that he's Republican, she isn't going to have in November.

[Trompe le Monde 1,107]

I didn't say he couldn't take them; I said he doesn't need them all, and I'd give him decent odds at all of them. I'd give Clinton roughly the same, except that I worry that her marvelous PA victory depended rather heavily on the PA governor's support, which, given that he's Republican, she isn't going to have in November.

Did Ed Rendell change parties?

[Caladan 19]

I didn't say he couldn't take them; I said he doesn't need them all, and I'd give him decent odds at all of them. I'd give Clinton roughly the same, except that I worry that her marvelous PA victory depended rather heavily on the PA governor's support, which, given that he's Republican, she isn't going to have in November.

Did Ed Rendell change parties?

Whoops, my bad. Got him crossed with someone else.

[Dan J 277]

The general election looks nothing like the primary, really.

no it doesn't

do you think Obama will win the general election? Do you think he can win swing states like MO, MI, PA, OH and NM? Can he win enough traditionally republican states?

If its a Hillary - McCain matchup I think we will have a repeat of 2000. If its Obama and McCain, well, I think history might go out the window.

I think what it really comes down to is a generational gap. McCain and Hillary are both politicions born out of the Vietnam Era. And the party will likely split on similar lines.

But Obama is part of a generation finally moving into national politics. In my opinion, he is a sign of the future of politics in this country. Its quite possible his presidental run was too early, and may suffer for it.

I know there are some Democrats that would be more comfortable with McCain. There are also some Replicans that would like to see Obama as president. So in an Obama - McCain matchup, I think we will have to look more at demographics rather than tradtional party lines to make any kind of prediction.

In the case of Minnesota: If it was a Hillary matchup, it would likely be a swing state, like 2000. But with Obama, it could very well be a solid blue state.

[Caladan 19]

I also think that Obama's small-state strategy will help Democrats down ticket. It's really too early to tell what November will be like, but I'm hopeful due to the very high Democratic turnout.

[Trompe le Monde 1,107]

In the case of Minnesota: If it was a Hillary matchup, it would likely be a swing state, like 2000. But with Obama, it could very well be a solid blue state.

Come on Dan, MN voted for Mondale!

[one...two...tree 2,762]

I don't know.....

Some districts are counties. Especially out in the rural areas. So assigning the delegates based on those districts would be easy. But in the big cities it gets more complicated, each county is likely split into several districts, and delegates are assigned based on the vote totals from the precincts that make up those districts.

It might not be until later until we know the full delegate counts.

You think? It's not 100% yet, is it?

And the full spread as well. Cuz all I can see is 10% (on several sites), contrary to what you are hoping for.

Don't worry, your koolaid machine has already spun it as victory, per usual arrogance.

Because of the large margins needed to gain an extra delegate in most districts, its pretty easy to figure out what the delgate spread is. If its a 2 delegate district you need a 50% margin to get more than one. If its a 3 delegate district a simple majority is enough, and 4 delegate districts you need a 25% margin to get more than 2.

The actual margin is 9.5% or 9.6% But most sites use rounding in thier reporting or fractions confuse to many people.

An important key factor in all these Primaries that most of us aren't aware of. Thankfully we have you here to help us make sense of the delegates and caucuses.