Heavy Turnout in Pa. - watch the Hillary landslide unfold...

[no name 1]

Obama is preparing his voters for a loss tonight:

Nah.

And both camps — including a visibly energized Obama campaign in recent days — are now preparing to spin Tuesday's results as a victory.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9757.html

“I’m not predicting a win. I’m predicting it’s going to be close and that we are going to do a lot better than people expect,” Obama told the Pittsburgh radio station KDKA Tuesday.

Where's the spin in this statement?

Read the full article (& title).

I did which is why I'm confused...where exactly does Obama or his campaign implicate preparing for spinning a loss as a victory? The title is misleading.

If HC doesn't win by 20%, he will say he won it. The overall race hasn't changed. Google it, there's pages of spin stories.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/200.../22/930293.aspx

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/200.../22/932542.aspx

http://www.queerty.com/democrats-start-spi...imary-20080421/

An obvious Obama slant:

In what may seem like a paradox, the Clinton victory predicted by nearly all public opinion polls might actually turn out to be a loss if she doesn't win by a significant margin. And if Obama keeps the results closer than some surveys suggest, he could be considered victorious --

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/na...?track=ntothtml

[Dr. A ♥ O 203]

If he's close to a 5% loss then Obama and media would say he's won it. However, the next player is Puerto Rico and that would be really fascinating if they get the chance to decide.

Obama is preparing his voters for a loss tonight:

Nah.

And both camps — including a visibly energized Obama campaign in recent days — are now preparing to spin Tuesday's results as a victory.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9757.html

“I’m not predicting a win. I’m predicting it’s going to be close and that we are going to do a lot better than people expect,” Obama told the Pittsburgh radio station KDKA Tuesday.

Where's the spin in this statement?

Read the full article (& title).

I did which is why I'm confused...where exactly does Obama or his campaign implicate preparing for spinning a loss as a victory? The title is misleading.

If HC doesn't win by 20%, he will say he won it. The overall race hasn't changed. Google it, there's pages of spin stories.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/200.../22/930293.aspx

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/200.../22/932542.aspx

http://www.queerty.com/democrats-start-spi...imary-20080421/

An obvious Obama slant:

In what may seem like a paradox, the Clinton victory predicted by nearly all public opinion polls might actually turn out to be a loss if she doesn't win by a significant margin. And if Obama keeps the results closer than some surveys suggest, he could be considered victorious --

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/na...?track=ntothtml

[Fandango 1,439]

If she doesn't win by a landslide, then he kinda has won, in the mitigating losses kinda way.

Ooops, I just said I was tired of political convos, heh....

ETA: 'Spinning' is not a bad word. Every.politician.does.it.

Edited April 22, 2008 by Happy Bunny

[simple_male 1]

There is a possibility that Obama will win though he will lose (by no more than 5%). That is right. Hillary needs a big win today.

If he's close to a 5% loss then Obama and media would say he's won it. However, the next player is Puerto Rico and that would be really fascinating if they get the chance to decide.

[simple_male 1]

I was right to think metta is a male. Sounds Italian!

Yes, my friend, you got it right!

metta is the buddhist concept of "loving kindness"

I see. I did not know that metta is the buddhist concept of "loving kindness." It is good to know.

[metta 0]

If she doesn't win by a landslide, then he kinda has won, in the mitigating losses kinda way.

Ooops, I just said I was tired of political convos, heh....

ETA: 'Spinning' is not a bad word. Every.politician.does.it.

Not quite.

If she loses, the game is over.

if she wins by < 10, it is still a big win for HRC in light of the fact that Obama is spending 3 to 4 :1.

For Barack, that would mean that he's like Mitt Romney who barack himself made fun of. (remember his ROI on all the millions spent by Mitt.

Also, what this will underscore is the fact that post-Ohio, Wrightgate and bittergate, Obama has become an attenuated candidate as in "attenuated virus".

It will not look good to the supers who are mainly looking at electability.

[Dan J 277]

If she doesn't win by a landslide, then he kinda has won, in the mitigating losses kinda way.

Ooops, I just said I was tired of political convos, heh....

ETA: 'Spinning' is not a bad word. Every.politician.does.it.

Not quite.

If she loses, the game is over.

if she wins by < 10, it is still a big win for HRC in light of the fact that Obama is spending 3 to 4 :1.

For Barack, that would mean that he's like Mitt Romney who barack himself made fun of. (remember his ROI on all the millions spent by Mitt.

Also, what this will underscore is the fact that post-Ohio, Wrightgate and bittergate, Obama has become an attenuated candidate as in "attenuated virus".

It will not look good to the supers who are mainly looking at electability.

Your argument would hold if this was super tuesday. But now we are way past that. A kind of win wont cut it anymore for a candidate who is behind.

She may have been outpent, but, she also was leading in polling, by a much larger margin than she is now.

[metta 0]

If she doesn't win by a landslide, then he kinda has won, in the mitigating losses kinda way.

Ooops, I just said I was tired of political convos, heh....

ETA: 'Spinning' is not a bad word. Every.politician.does.it.

Not quite.

If she loses, the game is over.

if she wins by < 10, it is still a big win for HRC in light of the fact that Obama is spending 3 to 4 :1.

For Barack, that would mean that he's like Mitt Romney who barack himself made fun of. (remember his ROI on all the millions spent by Mitt.

Also, what this will underscore is the fact that post-Ohio, Wrightgate and bittergate, Obama has become an attenuated candidate as in "attenuated virus".

It will not look good to the supers who are mainly looking at electability.

Your argument would hold if this was super tuesday. But now we are way past that. A kind of win wont cut it anymore for a candidate who is behind.

She may have been outpent, but, she also was leading in polling, by a much larger margin than she is now.

Well, both sides will spin for the benefit of supers who unlike the general public will look at the political bottom-line. Even at thia fairly late stage. Well, let me correct that. it is never too late until the nominee is officially elected.

ETA: BTW this depicts how me and my wife met

Edited April 22, 2008 by metta

[Dan J 277]

If she doesn't win by a landslide, then he kinda has won, in the mitigating losses kinda way.

Ooops, I just said I was tired of political convos, heh....

ETA: 'Spinning' is not a bad word. Every.politician.does.it.

Not quite.

If she loses, the game is over.

if she wins by < 10, it is still a big win for HRC in light of the fact that Obama is spending 3 to 4 :1.

For Barack, that would mean that he's like Mitt Romney who barack himself made fun of. (remember his ROI on all the millions spent by Mitt.

Also, what this will underscore is the fact that post-Ohio, Wrightgate and bittergate, Obama has become an attenuated candidate as in "attenuated virus".

It will not look good to the supers who are mainly looking at electability.

Your argument would hold if this was super tuesday. But now we are way past that. A kind of win wont cut it anymore for a candidate who is behind.

She may have been outpent, but, she also was leading in polling, by a much larger margin than she is now.

Well, both sides will spin for the benefit of supers who unlike the general public will look at the political bottom-line. Even at thia fairly late stage. Well, let me correct that. it is never too late until the nominee is officially elected.

But thats the point, what argument is she going to use to get super delegates to support her if she can't pull off a landslide victory in a state that is demographically in her favor? "I deserve it" or "Obama cant win the general election" wont fly

[one...two...tree 2,762]

If she doesn't win by a landslide, then he kinda has won, in the mitigating losses kinda way.

Ooops, I just said I was tired of political convos, heh....

ETA: 'Spinning' is not a bad word. Every.politician.does.it.

Exactly...and spinning about spinning is also spinning..if that makes sense. He said, “I’m not predicting a win. I’m predicting it’s going to be close and that we are going to do a lot better than people expect,” Obama told the Pittsburgh radio station KDKA Tuesday.

That sounds pretty logical and straight to the point to me.

[Fandango 1,439]

If she doesn't win by a landslide, then he kinda has won, in the mitigating losses kinda way.

Ooops, I just said I was tired of political convos, heh....

ETA: 'Spinning' is not a bad word. Every.politician.does.it.

Exactly...and spinning about spinning is also spinning..if that makes sense. He said, “I’m not predicting a win. I’m predicting it’s going to be close and that we are going to do a lot better than people expect,” Obama told the Pittsburgh radio station KDKA Tuesday.

That sounds pretty logical and straight to the point to me.

Cheese n Rice, Steven, did u just agree with me?

[metta 0]

If she doesn't win by a landslide, then he kinda has won, in the mitigating losses kinda way.

Ooops, I just said I was tired of political convos, heh....

ETA: 'Spinning' is not a bad word. Every.politician.does.it.

Not quite.

If she loses, the game is over.

if she wins by < 10, it is still a big win for HRC in light of the fact that Obama is spending 3 to 4 :1.

For Barack, that would mean that he's like Mitt Romney who barack himself made fun of. (remember his ROI on all the millions spent by Mitt.

Also, what this will underscore is the fact that post-Ohio, Wrightgate and bittergate, Obama has become an attenuated candidate as in "attenuated virus".

It will not look good to the supers who are mainly looking at electability.

Your argument would hold if this was super tuesday. But now we are way past that. A kind of win wont cut it anymore for a candidate who is behind.

She may have been outpent, but, she also was leading in polling, by a much larger margin than she is now.

Well, both sides will spin for the benefit of supers who unlike the general public will look at the political bottom-line. Even at thia fairly late stage. Well, let me correct that. it is never too late until the nominee is officially elected.

But thats the point, what argument is she going to use to get super delegates to support her if she can't pull off a landslide victory in a state that is demographically in her favor? "I deserve it" or "Obama cant win the general election" wont fly

i don't quite agree with all his points but here is the scenario given by mcIntyre in realclearpolitics.

Where the race could get very interesting is if Clinton is able to beat Obama by double-digits. Something to keep in mind is Pennsylvania will be the first time Democratic voters, as opposed to pollsters, have had a chance to factor in some of the recent controversies surrounding Obama the last six weeks, in particular Reverend Wright and his "bitter" comments in San Francisco. A big win by Clinton may cause a reassessment of how damaging these issues might be to Obama. On the back of Senator Obama's dismal showing in the Ohio River Valley among working class whites, his performance in Pennsylvania among downscale white voters will take on heightened importance.

A Clinton victory over 10 points will allow two critical things for the Clinton campaign.

1) Given the likelihood that Obama will overwhelmingly carry black voters and young voters, a 10+ point Clinton win, will mean Obama performed terribly among blue-collar whites. This will exacerbate angst among undecided superdelegates, fully aware that the most reasonable Democratic pathways to 270 electoral votes include wins in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Jersey.

2) A double-digit win keeps Clinton in position to be able to ultimately claim a victory in the popular vote. And a win in the popular vote is critical to the Clinton campaign's ultimate strategy for the nomination, as it gives superdelegates the rationale (and more importantly the cover) to buck all the emotional investment in Obama as the nominee.

Here is a quick guide to sort through the inevitable post-PA spin.

--Obama wins: Race is totally over.

--Clinton wins by 5 or less: Race is effectively over.

--Clinton wins by 6-9: Status quo, which favors the front runner Obama, particularly as the clock winds down.

--Clinton wins by 10-13: Clinton remains the underdog, but her odds of being the nominee will be considerably higher than the conventional wisdom in the media.

--Clinton wins by 14+: Totally different race, as Clinton will be on a path to claim a popular vote win that will give her every bit as much of an argument as the legitimate "winner". In this scenario anything could ultimately happen, including neither Clinton nor Obama becoming the eventual nominee.

[Caladan 19]

I think Obama's campaign gameplan is to tamp down expectation and then pull an upset victory with newly registered voters who number around 300,00. At least the newly registered voters are who Obama is counting on to at least whittle the margin of win for clinton IF that happens to be the case.

So, I am waiting for the otcome with bated breath

hehe, you are being paranoid.

You are going to have a good evening tonight. Hillary is going to win, and she will win big. 20+!

Dude, M. Troll, she hasn't even been polling that well since, hmm, sometime in November. Maybe January? She may win, but we're not talking landslide numbers.

It depends on who the overly large turnout turns out for. And I don't think this will be settled before the convention unless Obama wins tonight.

[metta 0]

I think Obama's campaign gameplan is to tamp down expectation and then pull an upset victory with newly registered voters who number around 300,00. At least the newly registered voters are who Obama is counting on to at least whittle the margin of win for clinton IF that happens to be the case.

So, I am waiting for the otcome with bated breath

hehe, you are being paranoid.

You are going to have a good evening tonight. Hillary is going to win, and she will win big. 20+!

Dude, M. Troll, she hasn't even been polling that well since, hmm, sometime in November. Maybe January? She may win, but we're not talking landslide numbers.

It depends on who the overly large turnout turns out for. And I don't think this will be settled before the convention unless Obama wins tonight.

I am not a pollster nor a statistician but one has to look carefully at each poll.

Of late, I have noticed that Polls usually showing Obama closing in or surging ahead of clinton in Indiana and penn.

Looked at closely, they often include "undecided" . That means say 10 % said undecided, once thay say they are undecided, then the survey follows up with: "ok, you are undecided but who do you prefer?"

Then they add the preferences to either "O" or "C" columns.

But in this cycle of primaries teh 'undecide" often break for HRC at the last minute. That's why as the election day draws closer, HRC's numbers show some uptick.

here is a useful comment i just read;

New InsiderAdvantage Poll

April 22, 2008 — The final InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey of the Pennsylvania Primary conducted Monday evening, April 21, shows Hillary Clinton holding her lead, but the margin of victory narrowing a bit.

Survey of 712 registered likely voters in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary. Survey weighted for age, race, and gender. Margin of error 3.6%

Hillary Clinton: 49%

Barack Obama: 42%

Undecided: 9 %

InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery:

"The undecided vote moved slowly downward between our Sunday night survey and our Monday night round of polling. Since both samples had virtually the same number of respondents, it is fair to conclude that the last minute voters were moving more in Obama’s direction. That said, from my experience, if a voter is still undecided the day before a race, they likely are not voting. If I had to guess, and it would be a guess, I would see this as a 53% or 54% Clinton win. The only way this could be much closer is if this race has been so intense that the undecideds in the poll truly are undecided and they continue to break for Obama. Were that the case, Clinton would win by a much smaller margin, perhaps as little as two or three percent. Obama’s team is betting on this scenario, while Clinton’s folks are hoping that, as far as the undecideds that remain, they will behave as usual and not vote. We shall see.”

[Fandango 1,439]

I called it before....Shrill will win by a 16.7% margin.