Final Survey USA PA Dem Poll shows Hillary set to win by landslide! (53-41)

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

In our latest exclusive SurveyUSA/KDKA-TV news poll released today, Hillary Clinton would still win if the election were held today, 53 percent to 41 percent.

...

The margin of error in the SurveyUSA poll is 4.1 percent.

http://kdka.com/slideshows/Pennsylvania.pr...9558.html?rid=0

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

This poll - it's quite out of tune with other poll data - has Clinton down two and Obama up five points from the last survey they did. While Survey USA has done pretty well during the primary season, this seems quite a discrepancy from the other data available. We'll see on Tuesday, I guess.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

This poll - it's quite out of tune with other poll data - has Clinton down two and Obama up five points from the last survey they did. While Survey USA has done pretty well during the primary season, this seems quite a discrepancy from the other data available. We'll see on Tuesday, I guess.

I'll take Survey USA over any other polling outfit this election season. I'm expecting a Hillary landslide by as much as 20 points on Tuesday.

[GaryC 7]

This poll - it's quite out of tune with other poll data - has Clinton down two and Obama up five points from the last survey they did. While Survey USA has done pretty well during the primary season, this seems quite a discrepancy from the other data available. We'll see on Tuesday, I guess.

I'll take Survey USA over any other polling outfit this election season. I'm expecting a Hillary landslide by as much as 20 points on Tuesday.

:dance:

Chaos continues!!! Keep it up guys!!

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

This poll - it's quite out of tune with other poll data - has Clinton down two and Obama up five points from the last survey they did. While Survey USA has done pretty well during the primary season, this seems quite a discrepancy from the other data available. We'll see on Tuesday, I guess.

I'll take Survey USA over any other polling outfit this election season. I'm expecting a Hillary landslide by as much as 20 points on Tuesday.

20 points? NGH.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

This poll - it's quite out of tune with other poll data - has Clinton down two and Obama up five points from the last survey they did. While Survey USA has done pretty well during the primary season, this seems quite a discrepancy from the other data available. We'll see on Tuesday, I guess.

I'll take Survey USA over any other polling outfit this election season. I'm expecting a Hillary landslide by as much as 20 points on Tuesday.

20 points? NGH.

53-41.

53+41 is 94.

That leaves 6% undecideds.

The undecideds in OH largely went to Hillary. Assuming the same pattern, undecideds break for Hillary 2:1. That gives Hillary 53 + 4 = 57, Obama 41 + 2 = 43.

57-43.

Now bear in mind there's a 4.1% MoE. Let's make that 4%.

Hillary can get anywhere from 57 - 4 to 57 + 4, which is 53 to 61.

Obama can get anywhere from 43 - 4 to 43 + 4, which is 39 to 47.

Realize that in no poll in PA so far has Obama exceeded 45.

The difference can be as much as 22, as little as 10.

Bottom line, Hillary wins by double digits on Tuesday. Perhaps (within the MoE) as much as 22!

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

This poll - it's quite out of tune with other poll data - has Clinton down two and Obama up five points from the last survey they did. While Survey USA has done pretty well during the primary season, this seems quite a discrepancy from the other data available. We'll see on Tuesday, I guess.

I'll take Survey USA over any other polling outfit this election season. I'm expecting a Hillary landslide by as much as 20 points on Tuesday.

20 points? NGH.

53-41.

53+41 is 94.

That leaves 6% undecideds.

The undecideds in OH largely went to Hillary. Assuming the same pattern, undecideds break for Hillary 2:1. That gives Hillary 53 + 4 = 57, Obama 41 + 2 = 43.

57-43.

Now bear in mind there's a 4.1% MoE. Let's make that 4%.

Hillary can get anywhere from 57 - 4 to 57 + 4, which is 53 to 61.

Obama can get anywhere from 43 - 4 to 43 + 4, which is 39 to 47.

Realize that in no poll in PA so far has Obama exceeded 45.

The difference can be as much as 22, as little as 10.

Bottom line, Hillary wins by double digits on Tuesday. Perhaps (within the MoE) as much as 22!

20 points ain't gonna happen.

[metta 0]

From taylormarsh.com

(Zogby is a very pro-Obama pollster: my comment)

The worst pollsters, ARG and Zogby (PDF), have new PA numbers. ARG has Clinton by 13, 54-41 (down from a 20 point lead) and Zogby has Clinton up 6, 48-42 (up from a 3 point lead). Watch Zogby hedge his bet:

“A big one-day of polling for Clinton. If a 10-point victory is the pundit-driven threshold she needs on Tuesday, it looks like she can do it. This does not look like a one-day anomaly – undecideds dropped to only 5% in this latest single day of polling, and they are breaking Clinton’s way. As I suggested yesterday, if white and Catholic voters, who still are the biggest portion of undecideds, actually vote, Clinton will have her double-digit victory. Just today alone, she polled 53% to Obama’s 38%.

Sure, Zogby, whatever you say. ARG's internals make sense to me:

Clinton leads 63% to 32% among white voters (81% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 86% to 12% among African American voters (15% of likely Democratic primary voters).

That adds up to 57-43 Clinton I think.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

It very well may not. My point is it's within the MoE. It's possible, if not necessarily likely.

[metta 0]

It very well may not. My point is it's within the MoE. It's possible, if not necessarily likely.

Polls are all over the place. But on the whole Hillary seems to be trending up like she did in Texas and Ohio as undecideds break toward her.

But nothing can be taken for granted in this election.

It could also be Axelrod's ploy to lower expectations and then pounce on HRC if she gets like only +5

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

It could also be Axelrod's ploy to lower expectations and then pounce on HRC if she gets like only +5

Survey USA isn't an Axelrod ploy.....

[one...two...tree 2,762]

I think the undecided will go with the safer bet (in their eyes)....Hillary. She'll win PA by 11%...my prediction.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

I predict closer to 15.

[Dan J 277]

I think the undecided will go with the safer bet (in their eyes)....Hillary. She'll win PA by 11%...my prediction.

And gain 3 delegates over Obama

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

I think the undecided will go with the safer bet (in their eyes)....Hillary. She'll win PA by 11%...my prediction.

And gain 3 delegates over Obama

I believe I've read that she's more likely to net around 10.

Obama's lead right now is what, 100+?