Bayh Says Clinton's Nomination Chance `Credible'

[metta 0]

Bayh Says Clinton's Nomination Chance `Credible'

April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, national co-chairman for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television's ``Political Capital with Al Hunt,'' scheduled to air today, that New York Senator Clinton has a ``credible chance'' of winning the Democratic nomination if she wins the popular vote.

(This is not a legal transcript. Bloomberg LP cannot guarantee its accuracy.)

AL HUNT: Evan Bayh is a member of the Armed Services and Intelligence Committees and the national co-chairman of Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign. Senator, thank you for being with us.

SENATOR EVAN BAYH: Good to be with you.

MR. HUNT: You're going to hear from General David Petraeus next week. Last time he testifies - last time he testified was in September. Is the situation in Iraq today more or less stable than it was seven months ago?

SEN. BAYH: Well, any time you add tens of thousands of troops to a situation you're going to get some temporary reaction to that, so that there are some signs of stability. But the real question, Al, is not whether in the short run or for tactical reasons Iraq is more stable, but whether in the long run, on a strategic level, it's heading in a better direction.

MR. HUNT: Do you think it is or not?

SEN. BAYH: You know, I really don't think so. The whole key to this is political reconciliation among the Iraqis, and we just don't see the kind of progress on that that it's really going to take to build that into a cohesive society. And in some ways, we face a catch-22 where we are enabling their dysfunction. I mean, the longer we stay, the more the pressure is off them to make the compromises that have to be made, and so the progress is not made.

MR. HUNT: When you heard from the general in September, he told you that things were stable in the south, in Basra. We, of course, saw the last couple weeks, tremendous violence down there. Does that raise questions about the general's credibility?

SEN. BAYH: Well, they certainly were wrong about that. It was being run by different Shia militia, which verged on gang- like activity. It raises questions about our assessment of the situation there.

MR. HUNT: Well, you are also going to hear from the Defense secretary a couple days later, and General Petraeus and Secretary Gates are expected to say we can't draw down below 140,000. You've spent a lot of time considering the strains on the military, the competing claim. Can we keep 140,000 troops in Iraq for the next six to 12 months?

SEN. BAYH: Not indefinitely, no. There is -

MR. HUNT: How long?

SEN. BAYH: Well, I can't put a precise, you know, date on that. But many of the commanders are saying their force is under tremendous strain.

We need to say to the Iraqis look, it's been five years. We've sacrificed 4,000 of our soldiers. We're spending $10 to $12 billion every month. You have to step up.

And I think the only way that they're going to step up, Al, is if we set out an agenda for gradually, in a responsible way, extricating ourself from that place. And as long as we keep pulling their bacon out of the fire, they're natural politicians; they're not going to make the hard decisions that only can make and must now be made.

MR. HUNT: There's a new national intelligent estimate on Iraq, and media reports say it's more optimistic. Do you feel more optimistic after seeing it?

SEN. BAYH: I can't talk about specifics. As you know - you referred to media reports, which is very kind because it does allow me to refer to them too. I think it was largely the same as what we heard before. The truth is that it is very mixed.

General Petraeus is a good man. Ambassador Crocker is a good person. But I think what you continue to hear in the administration, beyond them is putting the best possible face on things when in fact I don't see any reason for assessing this as significant progress.

MR. HUNT: Let me get you to put your political hat on for a minute - national co-chair, Hillary Clinton's campaign. She is way behind in delegates right now or behind. A lot of people agree from their own camp that the odds are very slim that she can win. Do you think she is going to be the nominee and what does she have to do to get there?

SEN. BAYH: Well, I think she can, Al. He is ahead right now. But you've got to put it in perspective. It's about 130 delegates out of several thousand. The popular vote, depending on what we do about Michigan and Florida is 1 percent.

MR. HUNT: Do you expect her to be the nominee in August?

SEN. BAYH: Well, I don't know. I think she still has a credible chance. I think there is a real opportunity. And you asked what she needs to do. Let me answer that. We have 10 primary contests and caucuses left. She needs to win a clear majority of those. She needs to continue to narrow the gap or openly - and I think this is important - win the popular vote. If at the end of this, you add up all 50 states and she has gotten more votes than Barack that is a very strong ground to stand on. The delegates really are proxies for the voters. And so I would look at the popular vote.

So she needs to win Pennsylvania strongly. Then she comes to my state of North Carolina. Our state is very close. He started off ahead. That gap is narrow. I think eventually in a hard- fought contest, she will win, but we're talking 2, 3, 4 percent, something like that.

MR. HUNT: We talk a lot about superdelegates, your fellow professional politician, and that they might be - all of the moment into Barack Obama, it's stunning, the last couple of months, and even the last couple of weeks, this week, you saw the governor of Wyoming - your Senate colleagues from Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Why are all those superdelegates moving to him?

SEN. BAYH: Well, in the case of Minnesota and Wyoming, I think they were both caucuses. You didn't get a very big turnout. The people that turnout voted overwhelming for Barack. So naturally the elected officials in those states feel, you know, the strong incentive to vote for the person who carried their state. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, that's a little bit different. Pennsylvania hadn't voted yet. So, look, I think to some extent that reflects the prevailing wins. But if she comes along and wins Pennsylvania.

MR. HUNT: You think it will change.

SEN. BAYH: It can possibly change. And then we're going to have a debate about electability and those sorts of things, so look; he's ahead right now. I think that's an honest assessment, but is there still a path for her to win that is a credible path, yeah, I think there is.

MR. HUNT: One of the raps on him has been that he's not experienced enough in foreign policy, the famous 3 a.m. phone call ad. One of your fellow Hoosiers, who is not a superdelegate but used to be a very respected member of congressman, Lee Hamilton, a foreign policy expert, endorsed Barack Obama this week. Does that give Obama more credibility in foreign policy and does it help Obama in Indiana?

SEN. BAYH: Well, I think the world of Lee Hamilton, he was one of the people I respected when I was growing up and still do. So of course it helps. But I think at the end of the day, Al, all of these endorsements, including my own, I might add, operate at the margins.

MR. HUNT: Some of the Clinton people have said that Barack Obama cannot win a general election. If he should be the nominee, do you think he would have trouble wining the general election?

SEN. BAYH: Well, I think he can win the general election, and if he is our nominee, I'll be all for him.

MR. HUNT: But do you think he can win?

SEN. BAYH: Yeah, I think he can win. Will there be some challenges? Yeah, I think there will be some challenges. And between two good candidates, we have to make a decision about who is best-positioned to win. And I will tell you, I think her greatest strength, Al, if I just had to guess today who the swing voters will be, it's those so-called Reagan Democrats, blue- collar working families, people who are feeling economic anxiety, that kind of thing, and she tends to do best among those kind of people who I think ultimately will decide this in places like Southern Ohio, what is it, the I-4 quarter in Florida, some of those kinds of places.

MR. HUNT: In one month to Indiana. Senator Evan Bayh, thank you so much for being with us.

***END OF TRANSCRIPT***

THIS TRANSCRIPT MAY NOT BE 100 PERCENT ACCURATE AND MAY CONTAIN MISSPELLINGS AND OTHER INACCURACIES. THIS TRANSCRIPT IS PROVIDED ``AS IS,'' WITHOUT EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND. BLOOMBERG RETAINS ALL RIGHTS TO THIS TRANSCRIPT AND PROVIDES IT SOLELY FOR YOUR PERSONAL, NON-COMMERCIAL USE. BLOOMBERG, ITS SUPPLIERS AND THIRD-PARTY AGENTS SHALL HAVE NO LIABILITY FOR ERRORS IN THIS TRANSCRIPT OR FOR LOST PROFITS, PERFORMANCE, OR USE OF SUCH TRANSCRIPT. NEITHER THE INFORMATION NOR ANY OPINION EXPRESSED IN THIS TRANSCRIPT CONSTITUTES A SOLICITATION OF THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF SECURITIES OR (END) COMMODITIES. ANY OPINION EXPRESSED IN THE TRANSCRIPT DOES NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS OF BLOOMBERG LP.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, national co-chairman for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign...

Gee, get a clue. He represents her campaign, what do you expect him to say? That she doesn't have a chance? In order to do what he does, he'd have to believe that she has a chance. Otherwise, he'd have to admit to being willingly engaged in a futile mission.

That said, of course she has a chance to become President. Nader does too.

[simple_male 1]

Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, national co-chairman for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign...

Gee, get a clue. He represents her campaign, what do you expect him to say? That she doesn't have a chance? In order to do what he does, he'd have to believe that she has a chance. Otherwise, he'd have to admit to being willingly engaged in a futile mission.

That said, of course she has a chance to become President. Nader does too.

Same as PA Gov. Ed Randell keeps saying she has credible chance.

Bottom line is: It is possible, but not probable.

Edited April 7, 2008 by simple_male