PA delegate breakdown - Hillary may not make much of a dent at all...

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An interesting analysis of the Pennsylvania delegate breakdown on dailykos.com ... FWIW ...

Much like Texas the Delegate breakdown in PA is based on Democratic turnout in past election cycles. And, like Texas, this favors Obama. What we have seen in state after state is that there are all Black districts, much due to ** line drawing, which break heavily for Obama. Because Hillary has no constituency which breaks an entire district to her at an over 70% number, she is hurting. We also, in PA, have to add on 35 at large delegates, 20 PLEO, and 3 add-on delegates. We'll return to their breakdown later. I'm going to give Clinton a 10 point win, based on most of the recent polls, of 55-45... and run the district demographics as close to Ohio as I can.

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read the district-by-district analysis at http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/2...6181/264/488923

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The Conclusion then is that if Clinton wins by 10% statewide Obama would pick up 75 delegates while Clinton would pick up 79 delegates. So, in the most likely scenario Clinton nets 4 delegates. In her best scenario breaking 6, 10, 12, 16 to her and placing her above 57% nets her...while deflating Obama's AA district wins... nets her 17 delegates.

Best Case Clinton (15% win) = 17 delegate pick up

Most likely Case (10% win) = 4 delegate Clinton pick up

Best case Obama (5% Clinton win) = Obama wins 3 delegates.