Hillary Beating McCain In Key Swing States

[no name 1]

April 2, 2008 - Clinton Leads 50 - 41 Among Pennsylvania Democrats; Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Whites Give Clinton Lead In Key November Matchups: --- PENNSYLVANIA Democrats: Clinton 50 - Obama 41; FLORIDA: Clinton 44 - McCain 42; McCain 46 - Obama 37; OHIO: Clinton 48 - McCain 39; Obama 43 - McCain 42

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton holds a 50 - 41 percent lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama among likely Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters and runs better against Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican nominee in Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 53 - 41 percent lead in a March 18 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In general election match ups of the three largest and most important swing states in the Electoral College, the survey finds.

Florida: Clinton 44 percent - McCain 42 percent; McCain beats Obama 46 - 37 percent;

Ohio: Clinton beats McCain 48 - 39 percent; Obama gets 43 percent to McCain's 42 percent;

Pennsylvania: Clinton tops McCain 48 - 40 percent; Obama leads McCain 43 - 39 percent.

The primary vote between Obama and Clinton splits sharply along racial lines, with her advantage coming from stronger support in every contest from white voters. For example, Clinton leads 59 - 34 percent among white Pennsylvania likely primary voters, while Obama leads 73 - 11 percent among black Democrats.

"When it comes to November, Sen. Hillary Clinton's strength is a big edge over Sen. Barack Obama among white voters, who have not given a majority of their votes to a Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute."

More than a third of voters in the three states think Obama's race is an advantage, more than twice the number who think it is a disadvantage. By contrast, roughly a quarter of voters say Clinton's gender is an advantage, and about the same number think it is a disadvantage.

"Former Democratic vice presidential nominee Geraldine Ferraro's assertion that Obama's race has helped his candidacy finds some support among the electorate," said Brown.

"At least for now, Sen. Clinton's argument that she is the better general election candidate in these key battleground states appears to have some validity," said Brown. "In this survey, her strength among white voters is why she runs better against Sen. McCain than does Sen. Obama.

"Roughly one in five Democrats in the three states say they will vote for McCain against Obama, but less than 10 percent say they would vote for McCain over Clinton. Among white Democrats, 23 percent defect to McCain in a matchup with Obama, but only 11 percent defect when Clinton is the Democratic candidate." Pennsylvania

Among Pennsylvania Democrats, Clinton leads 54 - 37 percent with women, and ties Obama 46 - 46 percent with men. Obama leads 51 - 42 percent among voters under 45 years old, while Clinton leads 54 - 37 percent among voters over 45.

By a 48 - 42 percent margin, Pennsylvania registered voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Obama gets a 49 - 31 percent favorability and McCain gets 47 - 31 percent.

"Sen. Clinton's imaginary snipers, Rev. Wright, Geraldine Ferraro, these events have taken only a small toll on Sen. Clinton's lead in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Her strength is her clear advantage among white voters - blue collar whites, less educated whites, economically hurting whites, that group known famously as Reagan Democrats in the Keystone State. Obama is marshalling all his forces, but despite his eloquent dialogue on the race issue, Pennsylvania Democrats are unmoved. So Far."

The economy is the most important issue in their vote, 46 percent of voters say, followed by 23 percent who list the war in Iraq and 14 percent who cite health care.

Looking at the most important quality in a candidate, 30 percent want a strong leader and 26 percent want someone who is trustworthy.

Being black is an advantage for Obama, 32 percent say, while 15 percent say it's a disadvantage and 47 percent say it makes no difference.

Being a woman is an advantage for Clinton, 26 percent say, with 25 percent saying it's a disadvantage and 45 percent saying it makes no difference.

Florida

In a general election match-up, McCain trails Clinton 44 - 42, too close to call, but handily defeats Obama 46 - 37 percent.

"The difference between Clinton and Obama in Florida is the white vote," said Brown. "She gets 38 percent to 50 percent for McCain, but Obama loses to the Arizona senator 54 - 27 among white voters. If Obama does get the nomination, how he fares with whites will be crucial to his chances."

The economy is the most important issue to Florida voters, 44 percent of voters say, followed by 19 percent who list the war in Iraq and 14 percent who cite health care.

29% say a strong leader is the most important characteristic they seek in a president, while 27 percent say trustworthiness.

Being black is an advantage for Obama, 35 percent say, while 15 percent say it's a disadvantage and 44 percent say it makes no difference.

Being a woman is an advantage for Clinton, 24% say, with 25% saying it's a disadvantage and 47% saying it makes no difference.

Clinton's 48 - 39% lead over McCain puts her clearly out in front after several months of see-saw, too-close-to-call results.

Men split with 43% for McCain and 42% for Clinton, but women go with her 53 - 35%.

In an Obama-McCain matchup in Ohio, women back Obama 44 - 40% as men split, with 44% for McCain and 42% for Obama.

Despite Clinton's edge in the match-ups, she is not as well thought of overall as her two competitors. Ohio voters split 47 - 45 percent in their opinion of Clinton. By a 45 - 37 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. McCain gets a 42 - 33 percent favorability.

"The favorability data indicate that her lead may be in part due to higher name recognition. This is not a good omen as the other candidates become better known," said Brown.

The economy is the most important issue in their vote, 44 percent of voters say, followed by 22 percent who list the war in Iraq and 17 percent who cite health care.

"The economic concerns of voters make Ohio a tougher challenge for McCain than has traditionally been the case for Republicans, who have never won the White House without carrying Ohio," Brown said. "But Obama's weakness among white men is an indication that he has not yet closed the sale among the lunch bucket brigade."

Ohio voters split in the most important quality they want in a candidate, with 28 percent looking for someone trustworthy and 27 percent looking for a strong leader.

Being black is an advantage for Obama, 36 percent say, while 14 percent say it's a disadvantage and 45 percent say it makes no difference.

Being a woman is an advantage for Clinton, 24 percent say, with 27 percent saying it's a disadvantage and 46 percent saying it makes no difference.

From March 24 - 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed:

1,136 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent;

1,238 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;

3,484 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 1.7 percent, including 1,549 Democratic likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1a. If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama? *This table includes Leaners.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1164

[mawilson 2,133]

I have money riding on Hillary, so......GOOOO HILLARY!

[simple_male 1]

Good news for Hillary supporters, but first she has to beat Obama before she can beat McCain.

Edited April 2, 2008 by simple_male

[Chica Yeyé 41]

Good news for Hillary supporters, but first he has to beat Obama before she can beat McCain.

Ditto - and that remains to be seen.

[simple_male 1]

Good news for Hillary supporters, but first he has to beat Obama before she can beat McCain.

Ditto - and that remains to be seen.

I meant to say she has to beat Obama before she can beat McCain.

[mawilson 2,133]

Good news for Hillary supporters, but first he has to beat Obama before she can beat McCain.

Ditto - and that remains to be seen.

I meant to say she has to beat Obama before she can beat McCain.

No problem - you're not the first one to call her a "he"

[Chica Yeyé 41]

Good news for Hillary supporters, but first he has to beat Obama before she can beat McCain.

Ditto - and that remains to be seen.

I meant to say she has to beat Obama before she can beat McCain.

And I totally agreed with you. Didn't catch the mispell, but your message

[simple_male 1]

Good news for Hillary supporters, but first he has to beat Obama before she can beat McCain.

Ditto - and that remains to be seen.

I meant to say she has to beat Obama before she can beat McCain.

No problem - you're not the first one to call her a "he"

In one sense, it is right, because both Bill and Hillary are double teaming against Obama. In one debate Obama said to Hillary, "Sometimes I am not sure who I am running against."

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

What's getting lost with Hillary's followers in their drunken celebration of this poll is that her huge lead over Obama in PA has melted down to a single digit advantage.

[Ban Hammer 13,337]

Good news for Hillary supporters, but first he has to beat Obama before she can beat McCain.

Ditto - and that remains to be seen.

I meant to say she has to beat Obama before she can beat McCain.

No problem - you're not the first one to call her a "he"

quite true!

[no name 1]

What's getting lost with Hillary's followers in their drunken celebration of this poll is that her huge lead over Obama in PA has melted down to a single digit advantage.

9 points. Almost double digit.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

What's getting lost with Hillary's followers in their drunken celebration of this poll is that her huge lead over Obama in PA has melted down to a single digit advantage.

9 points. Almost double digit.

Almost isn't good enough. It used to be double digits. Quite cmfortable double digits. Her lead is clearly shrinking. The way the momentum is going is quite encouraging. Not for Hillary but for the country.

[no name 1]

What's getting lost with Hillary's followers in their drunken celebration of this poll is that her huge lead over Obama in PA has melted down to a single digit advantage.

9 points. Almost double digit.

Almost isn't good enough. It used to be double digits. Quite cmfortable double digits. Her lead is clearly shrinking. The way the momentum is going is quite encouraging. Not for Hillary but for the country.

Every state's polls show that months out. The country is clearly split.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

What's getting lost with Hillary's followers in their drunken celebration of this poll is that her huge lead over Obama in PA has melted down to a single digit advantage.

9 points. Almost double digit.

Almost isn't good enough. It used to be double digits. Quite cmfortable double digits. Her lead is clearly shrinking. The way the momentum is going is quite encouraging. Not for Hillary but for the country.

Every state's polls show that months out. The country is clearly split.

Of course it is. The Clintons are busy dividing it as much as they can. But that doesn't change the fact that Hillary's lead in PA is shrinking.

[no name 1]

The Clintons are busy dividing it as much as they can.

With the help of 50% of America's Dems & Independents.

Your continue to insult the Clinton supporters, how arrogant.

Edited April 2, 2008 by illumine