APRIL '08 Vermont K-1 Filers

[*** 0]

Good Morning April Filers!

I am back.- well, yeah, I did sneak a peek here and there.. but I wasnt

nearly as obsessive. hahaahha

Congrats to all the new approvals! Looks like Vermont is starting to move.

Lets hope the ending of this month (and the processing of the H1 work visas) turns

Vermont into overdrive for everyone still waiting!

Jill

[KimandRuss 0]

Jill.... so does that mean you won the bet or did you cheat??? Welcome back in either case.

Yes, it would appear they are moving but it doesnt really seem that way to those of us waiting!

14 weeks ago today they received our petition. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[prettynpink 0]

Im waiting still..........hoping for approval this week...

God bless...fingers crossed for all of us waiting..

[S&D 0]

Kim, as an experienced VJ member, I have one question for you....

Do you think VSC has slowed down lately compared to how they used to process cases before??

I am wondering if we are just caught in a bad timing at VSC...

I have heard that VSC has to process HI visa first, or naturalization for the coming presidential election etc.

I am sure no one really knows what is going on but I just joined VJ last month

so I really don't know the trend at VSC.

[KimandRuss 0]

If you go over the timelines you will find that historically it is not uncommon for any of the centers to go from processing in a matter of weeks to taking a few months. Vermont has always been the fastest of all centers but still we see fluxuations in processing here and there. We learned from a former adjuticator that those who process the honey-bunnies (k1's) are not the same that process other petitions. But who really knows if things have changed since then. Naturalization only makes a pit stop at the uscis and is handled more at the local service centers so I dont think that's what is holding us up. The H1's would make sense as the deadline for those was early April but again, not sure it's the same adjuticator's doing the work and past years haven't really showed a major slow down during this process so it's hard to speculate. Although, that's where i'm putting my money.

It's really hard to even guess at what is happening because the process we find ourselves stuck in is relatively new. Up until mid-2007 there were more service centers processing k1's. After the rate hike and re-distribution of everything to just two centers last year there was such a backlog... new adjuticators hired... etc. This is the first year that there are just two centers now processing the K1's and they are both just over the backlog caused and onto 'regular' processing.... so it's hard to know what's going on. Everything we see and know historically is out the window.

If the assumption that the H1b's are holding us up is correct, we wil probably see things speeding up before too long as they've all been chosen by now. Time will tell....

[S&D 0]

Kim, thanks a lot for your detailed analysis!

I guess all we can do is really to keep the faith and stay positive and strong....

I really hope all of us will receive NOA2 without being forgotten.

I feel so bad for those who filed way before we did and are still waiting for NOA2.

Their cases must be in those backlog boxes....

I hope you will receive NOA2 very soon as it can happen anytime soon to you!

Edited July 23, 2008 by S&D

[GauraD 0]

Im waiting still..........hoping for approval this week...

God bless...fingers crossed for all of us waiting..

Me too! Trying to stay optimistic. Hoping but not too sure of anything these days, with the skewed nature of the approvals and people who still havent been approved from March and people who filed after me being approved already lol! Whatever will be will be........and if this doesnt work out there are many other places in the world we can be together

[HiTech 0]

Today is a good day

7/23/2008      4:59 pm  	 Shipment delivered.     	Kiev, Ukraine  
                     3:17 pm 	With delivery courier.   	Kiev, Ukraine
                     2:20 pm 	Arrived at DHL facility.   	Kiev, Ukraine
                     6:12 am 	Depart Facility   	Leipzig, Germany
7/22/2008      9:48 am 	Depart Facility   	New York City Gateway, NY
                     7:19 am 	Transit through DHL facility   	New York City Gateway, NY
                     6:12 am 	Depart Facility   	Wilmington, OH
                     2:17 am 	In transit.   	Wilmington, OH
                     2:17 am 	Processed at DHL Location.   	Wilmington, OH
                     1:22 am 	Transit through DHL facility   	Wilmington, OH
7/21/2008    11:40 pm 	Depart Facility   	Harrisburg, PA
                   11:38 pm 	Transit through DHL facility   	Harrisburg, PA
                     8:30 pm 	Depart Facility   	Portland - Airport, ME
                     8:25 pm 	Transit through DHL facility   	Portland - Airport, ME
                     7:35 pm 	Depart Facility   	Portsmouth, NH
                     3:16 pm 	Processed at DHL Location.   	Portsmouth, NH
                     2:55 pm 	Shipment picked up   	Portsmouth, NH

[KimandRuss 0]

How exciting Dale! Wont be long now!

You're most welcome S&D. I wish I had a more conclusive answer. Over the last year or so i've tried every which way to analyze every number reported by the uscis but the only thing that remains certain ...is the uncertainty!

One thing that always helps me to keep some perspective is remembering that we are such a small percentage of actual filers here at VJ and even though we may not see approvals for a few days, things are certainly still happening. You have only to look at case #'s (as dale has done) or even at DHL and the amount of petitions they send off to the Embassy's each day.

The way the adjutication process has been explained it's really no wonder some petitions are approved out of order. As unfair as it is and as disheartning as it can be to see some others approved before you, it's the nature of the beast. All we can do is hold our heads high and try to keep strong until it is our turn. ...and it will be our turn.

[HiTech 0]

How exciting Dale! Wont be long now!

You're most welcome S&D. I wish I had a more conclusive answer. Over the last year or so i've tried every which way to analyze every number reported by the uscis but the only thing that remains certain ...is the uncertainty!

One thing that always helps me to keep some perspective is remembering that we are such a small percentage of actual filers here at VJ and even though we may not see approvals for a few days, things are certainly still happening. You have only to look at case #'s (as dale has done) or even at DHL and the amount of petitions they send off to the Embassy's each day.

The way the adjutication process has been explained it's really no wonder some petitions are approved out of order. As unfair as it is and as disheartning as it can be to see some others approved before you, it's the nature of the beast. All we can do is hold our heads high and try to keep strong until it is our turn. ...and it will be our turn.

After tracking my stuff in detail, and all the petitions a few things became very clear.

Not all people put the same day on the NOA1 date in VJ. the 3 digit day receipt number is much more usefull.

2. it appears 1 person can do about 8 - 12 case a day.

3. There are now 3 steps to Vermont process.

1. Receive petition seperate check from file, and generate a receipt number. As this process happens you can clearly see 2 or 3 people entering the pet ions into the system. At this time they would be put into boxes in order per person, but not per day.

2. Next before they are put in long term storage, some one does a basic scan to make sure all documents needed are in the file. If the basics are not there RFE's are sent out, this is not done by an adjudicator. And takes about 2 days to process 50 or so files.

This is the touch date people see about 1 month after NOA1.

3. A box is removed from storage and processed by an adjudicator. This is what is causing the great variance in in NOA2 dates for people with the same NOA1 date.

When you looked at all the K1's for a given date, it was very clear looking at the first TOUCH dates what files were in what box, and I could see the Adjudicator work in the box threw the consecutive numbers.

Now I also did some total scans for 3 months. I have not looked at the last month. But what apears to happen, in there attempt to catch up, is that They decided they would not let there queues grow. Now this is not a length of time in queue but rather total number of files in queue of a given type.

My estimation is that they have aprox 2500 k1 files in queue. And as they have a priority on something else at the moment 1 K1 has to be filed for 1 to come out the back end. Basicly every week they say if we have 250 NOA1's we must process 250 k1 NOA2.

If you look at the number of petions filed in Jan and Feb, it was a lot more than April may and march. This is what is causing the longer time in Queue, not the queue getting longer.

Also since multiple adjudicators work on K1's and others based on the influx of K1's it can vary greatly how many weeks to get threw one box, because they may do 10 per week or do 50 per week.

It is very obvious the USCIS wants to hide information and queue times from the public so that they do not need to deal with the fairness issues of 1 month difference based on what box you landed in. Because they have real time data in an sql data base. it would be a very simple project to show people what there number in queue is, just like when you get a ticket and now serving number 87 .

I was also surprised at the % of people who post data on this sight, it was much higher than I would thought.

Vermont received 200 - 250 K1's per week in April May June so VJ is a sample of 5 - 10% and hence very representative of how the USCIS is doing in general.

HiTech

[Nich-Nick 3,354]

Kim, as an experienced VJ member, I have one question for you....

Do you think VSC has slowed down lately compared to how they used to process cases before??

I am wondering if we are just caught in a bad timing at VSC...

I have heard that VSC has to process HI visa first, or naturalization for the coming presidential election etc.

I am sure no one really knows what is going on but I just joined VJ last month

so I really don't know the trend at VSC.

S&D, you can look at the graphs here http://www.visajourney.com/forums/index.ph...ge=k1historical

They are found by clicking above on Immigration Timelines, then under the heading "Statistics", find the K1 "Historical Trends" You can visually see the ups and downs of the service centers for the past year. Here's Vermont:

My approval of a March filing came in early May as the trend was climbing out of the valley (around 50 days). You can see how as of today the average is 96 days. I think the graphs show what Kim was saying about it goes up and down. The link I posted shows lots of graphs and there's also a link to several Embassy graphs. Look is Step 6 in tiny print, it says ...popular consulates click "here" This is that link http://www.visajourney.com/forums/index.ph...e-k1-historical

[moroccousa 0]

Hi Everyone!

I haven't been active on this forum at all, but I have been obsessively checking my USCIS account and updates to the forum. And I've been excited to hear about your touches...well...exciting news!

I had to go on a trip to rural Oman for the past 3 days and didn't have access to email, but when I returned...and email stating our case was approved was waiting in my Inbox!!

We are listed as "Simo and Lizzie" on Igor's list, our NOA1 was 4/21 and the last touch that I had heard of was on 5/21, but we were approved on Monday 7/21, with no touches last week!!

Good luck to all of you who are waiting!

<3 Lizzie

[KimandRuss 0]

Dale, I think that was a great analyzation of the process and it's likely right on target! Overall I think the VJ data is a good representation of the uscis process and timelimes but when you are looking subjectively (ie; at your own dates) and going day to day waiting... it's very likely there have been several approvals that day that we have not seen here at VJ. That is where I think the data skews perception. Glad you're moving right along.

Lizzie, congratulations and thanks so much for letting us know! Your dates are just a day or two in front of ours! Best of luck in Morocco!

p.s. I wanted to add about the graphs... We've got to remember that there were serious issues going on at the service centers and many changes being made throughout the past year. I'm sure it's not a true representation of how this coming year.

Edited July 23, 2008 by KimandRuss

[prettynpink 0]

Okay perhaps this day is my day..heheee The waiting really sucks!!!i need some breathing excercise to calm myself..Its driving me crazy ...lol

Okay april filers lets hope and pray we get ours today!!!!

[Nicoxcx 1]

We were touched yesterday!, first touch since April 30th!! , it could be nothing, or something bad like an RFE, but I am just so happy , it feels good to be fondled again