APRIL '08 Vermont K-1 Filers

[KimandRuss 0]

Good morning April.

Glad you seem more positive today, Graham.

There is more anticipation when checking emails and opening VJ these days, no?

It's so hard to tell what and how they're doing at the VSC because VJ is such a small percentage of actual filers. I find that when i'm feeling down one of the things I do is imagine the adjuticators at work. I see them going through the process as it was explained here for each file... file after file after file. I remind myself of the fact that we must multiply the approvals we see here at VJ by dozens more each day. I know ours is there...just waiting.... not too much longer.

Consider the hour-glass; there is nothing to

be accomplished by rattling or shaking; you have

to wait patiently until the sand, grain by grain,

has run from one funnel into the other.

~ John Christian Morgenstern

I do hope that this week we can at least see them clearning out March and moving through April.

[ride2hard 0]

I called VSC, and spoke to an officier this morning, not a customer service rep.

VSC received my packet in May, the officier claims they won't ajudicate until September. She claims they're overwhelmed with cases.

Gov't efficiency at it's best.

[brian87 0]

It's so hard to tell what and how they're doing at the VSC because VJ is such a small percentage of actual filers.

This is certainly true, but statistical projections are often based on a small sample sizes. I think the key is the diversity of the sample which VJ certainly offers.

For instance, the Rasmussen and Gallup polls use a sample size of about two thousand likely voters in a state to help project races. Of course they are occasionally wrong, but in reality almost all professional projections are within the error of margin.

Since our petitions are spread out over numerous days, I wonder if 80 petitions is enough to be a meaningful indicator. If 2k voters is sufficient out of 400K, then what does 80 really mean?

Okay any Stat people out there? It has been too many years since my college stat class. But it was truly a very interesting class.

And does the USCIS provide a monthly K-1 total? I have never seen a K-1 specific total. Without that number, the true probative value of VJ's estimates is hard to discern.

Well, other than the fact that I get a warm fuzzy when I move up Igor's list.

Brian

[KimandRuss 0]

ride2hard... try not to take anything the uscis tells you too literally. They tell you it's going to take 7 months because 7 months is the processing time listed on their website. If you called again today, you'd probably get a different answer.

Brian, I see your point... but stats still pretty much mean shite to me. The Gallup poll is based on public opinion, which is usually pretty easy to figure out. So many things influence most people's decision making when it comes to politics... most of all... being ahead in the Gallup poll! Unfortunately, for many people... nothing fuels persuation more than the majorities vote.

The stats at vj are an actual representation but at a very small percentage. There are pdf's floating around here somewhere which list the total visa's processed through the uscis for the past decade. My point is... one day could have 50 approvals and we see none here at VJ, the next day could also have 50 approvals yet we see 10 of those at VJ. Either way, it's still 50 approvals for VSC. As most of us are feeling 'day to day' here now we can't really look at 'the big picture' because it doesn't tell the whole tale..and we can't really look at yesterday and see no approvals when in actuallity there may have very well been many.

Sometimes the stats make more sense... If there was more transparency to the process I think it would be easier to handle for many of us. This is why we like to be touched...that is why Igor's list works for most... in a broader and much more accurate spectrum of known filers, you can watch things progress day to day as you see your name move on the list. It's ... something you know? Something more to keep you going... Of course we must still leave room for error but it's still a clearer picture in real time.

Anyway... rough start to my morning.... computer problems, spilled coffee all over the floor and now I must go to work and fix more computers! The wait is getting harder, isn't it? I suppose it's because we know it's coming(?)

Ok...I think I need an attitude adjustment! Off for more coffee and hopefully a little perspective. Have a good day folks!

:edit because apparently I can't spell

Edited June 17, 2008 by KimandRuss

[HighwayStar 0]

Good morning, April filers! It seems that our petition has been touched again after nearly 2 months... I had decided not to check the USCIS website for at least a week because not seeing any changes brought me down - but earlier this morning Michael did, and he saw the update! Perhaps it's a good sign, who knows... Even though in Italy 17 is the unlucky number by definition!

[KimandRuss 0]

I hope it means something good for you!

[Nich-Nick 3,354]

Good morning, April filers! It seems that our petition has been touched again after nearly 2 months... I had decided not to check the USCIS website for at least a week because not seeing any changes brought me down - but earlier this morning Michael did, and he saw the update! Perhaps it's a good sign, who knows... Even though in Italy 17 is the unlucky number by definition!

Ohhh. I really think that could be an approval. My touch after a long bit was the approval, but it took 2 more days for them to send the email and show it online. I hope it's a good sign.

Stats: Just ran across a document on the Dept. of State website yesterday. It said in fiscal year 2007 that 51,935 K visas were approved. Well that's like 1000 a week and makes you realize there's waaay more going on than we see on Igor's list. And then consider the other visas they process added to the numbers. Another report was about the number of denials and all the reasons. The total number of applicants on that list was a quarter of a million. That was for all types of visas. Big numbers!

[enchantedtikiman 0]

Anyway... rough start to my morning.... computer problems, spilled coffee all over the floor and now I must go to work and fix more computers!

So you are in the IT field as well??? Aren't the users just insane?!?! LOL

Even though in Italy 17 is the unlucky number by definition!

I may have felt the same if I was touched on Friday the 13th LOL

Hope your approval is coming soon!

Edited June 17, 2008 by desenchantee

[GrahamandMegan 1]

Hello guys, not going to go through updating everyone back through November, December, January and February anymore. Just going to do from March onwards and also stick in the latest updates from people in May and June as I'm keeping the May thread updated too.....

March - 90 filers, 61 with NOA2 (68%) and 29 waiting.

April - 62 filers, 2 with NOA2 (3%) and 60 waiting.

May - 44 filers and 44 waiting.

June - 12 filers and 12 waiting.

[GrahamandMegan 1]

After going through the timelines on here and PM'ing everyone who hadn't been online for a while and got another approval out the system for March, YAY!! So here is the definitive list as of 5.00pm my time!! And VJ is estimating a processing date of NOA1s with a date of March 17th. That's just 3 weeks away from our date

March - 90 filers, 62 with NOA2 (69%) and 28 waiting.

April - 62 filers, 2 with NOA2 (3%) and 60 waiting.

May - 44 filers and 44 waiting.

June - 12 filers and 12 waiting.

Edited June 17, 2008 by GrahamandMegan

[GrahamandMegan 1]

VJ is projecting a date of March 19th right now for being processed, I really hope that is true!!!!!

[BexandAlan 0]

Awwwww Graham I hope that its true too! Your all about to enter the realm of reality, the first few approvals are coming in and it causes the most incredible frustration. This is the beginning of the end of the beginning. Its definitely the hardest part, after this bit it kind of snowballs and all of a sudden you are wondering why you didn't do more when you were waiting. I know its easy for me to say but if you pop over to the March thread we can see the approvals sliding down Nichs list and it actually seems pretty logical. It would be interesting to know how many Feb filers had been approved when the first March filers started to get their NOA2's.

I can't wait to start coming over here to your parties when the approvals start flooding in. And the only thing we can really be certain of is that they will!

Sending the April filers all my good vibes :idea: :idea: :idea: :idea:

Bex xxx

[GrahamandMegan 1]

March has a new filer; 91 with NOA1 in March, 62 with NOA2 (68%) and 29 waiting.

[GrahamandMegan 1]

Another approval yesterday guys, from March 31st so almost an Apriler!!!!! And the Processing Times changed also, so we moved down to 74 on Igor's list. Hopefully more March and April people will be getting approvals the rest of the week

March - 91 filers, 63 with NOA2 (69%)and 28 waiting.

[KimandRuss 0]

Hi April folks! Where are you all today?

So you are in the IT field as well??? Aren't the users just insane?!?! LOL

Yes, I am. The users? The people who's computers I fix?

Bex, I sure hope this is the beginning of it all for us! I'm so ready for it!

Well I do hope you are all well and hanging in there!

*soon*