Filing in March

[Nich-Nick 3,354]

Anyhow... last night Lee told me about a letter he got from DOS i think...and they were saying something about receiving and forwarding the case to the embassy... Do they usually send out those kind of letters??? I was pretty surprised.

He said he would read it to me today and i will figure out what it actually is...

Yes, we got one. It will have the new case number on it and it says the case will be processed at: (your embassy and it's address)

The date of the letter was actually after the case had left NVC according to what the person on the phone told me about when it arrived and when it left. Did you ask your embassy to look up your case by that new number rather than your name?

[HiTech 0]

where are those codes from? what website??

Looks like he's hacking into the USCIS online tracking of your individual case numbers by entering a sequence of numbers. Well, not hacking in exactly, because anybody could do it, but that's kinda getting into peoples privacy areas. The timelines here are voluntary reporting, but I wonder if you should be doing that? That's created by the government for people to check their own cases as a convenience. Just my opinion.

It's not going to get us approved any faster. We file....we wait....we celebrate

It is not hacking, nor is it getting into private information. The information on the USCIS is all public domain information (per there sight information). There is nothing private about it, because the case numbers do not disclose anything about the person, only the type of case and if it is complete or not.

You are correct the information does not directly help get a visa any faster, but the biggest frustration I have had with this process is not having any idea when the visa would be complete. Also the complete lack of real information from the USCIS.

With the database I have been building I can see like what set of files are in the same box. We will be able to see when the USCIS switches from one type of forum to the other.

For instance right now I show about 33 K1's at Vermont with an NOA1 date of Aprox March 17. 5 are approved (2 were yesterday) 1 denied and 27 pending.

And on a side note.

It really sucks being number 20 on Igors list. To all with a number less than mine, I feel your pain.

HiTech

Edited June 18, 2008 by HiTech

[Nich-Nick 3,354]

Hi Tech. Your time will come very soon. Probably in a week to 10 days. If you would modify your timeline to the day you sent the second petition, then your dates would be a little more accurate. You're skewing Capt Ewok's algorithm. I think yours would probably say something like June 26-July 4. His statistical model is designed (I believe) predicting that 65% of the cases will be approved by the first date and 85% by the second date.

Since the Feb one was lost, it's like it didn't really happen (except in your heart and brain) but you know what I mean...to the USCIS it was a new petition at the very end of March. So sorry you had to wait that month wondering where your NOA1 was and then effectively start over.

Edited June 18, 2008 by Nich-Nick

[HiTech 0]

Hi Tech. Your time will come very soon. Probably in a week to 10 days. If you would modify your timeline to the day you sent the second petition, then your dates would be a little more accurate. You're skewing Capt Ewok's algorithm. I think yours would probably say something like June 26-July 4. His statistical model is designed (I believe) predicting that 65% of the cases will be approved by the first date and 85% by the second date.

Since the Feb one was lost, it's like it didn't really happen (except in your heart and brain) but you know what I mean...to the USCIS it was a new petition at the very end of March. So sorry you had to wait that month wondering where your NOA1 was and then effectively start over.

Nick, from what I can see of Capt Ewoks projection model, it makes the assumption of constancy in uscis, I.E. today the average wait time is 90 days, so add 90 days to you date and this is your projected date. (I over simplify because computing the average date includes many filters.) While this method of computation has good and bad aspects. But when USCIS changes what they currently are working on, it is not very accurate.

Another method can be used to compute the time, it looks at how many are in the queue before you and how many are processed per day. The advantage of this method is that it reacts more quickly to changes of the USCIS. Using this method, I think NOA2 date of April 7 is about 4 - 5 weeks out. Of course this assumes Vermont continues to process at the given rate but when they change , this method will react very quickly to the change.

As to my time line screwing the numbers, not really, it is the accurate time of being sent. But because Capt Ewok is using Send date to project instead of NOA1 date, the projection is not accurate in my case.

HiTech

Edited June 18, 2008 by HiTech

[aleena 0]

Hi tech...I can see what you are trying to do now....lol

Must admit it took me a while....

i guess if it makes you pass the time it is good for you...but in my opinion the USCIS process is just about people working with people... And it is very difficult to put everything into mathematic formulas... Each case is different... and each case is handled by a human being...which we call Adjudicators... Sometimes we do wish they were machines and we could predict their work...But they are not...

We have all noticed that lately (don't know about months ago...) USCIS is shooting out the NOA2 in more or less a chronological order which can only be good news for all of us...

Your NOA1 is early april...so according to "my calculations" your NOA2 will come in a couple weeks

see if i'm right about that...

i agree that Igor's list algorythm should use the NOA1 date and not the day you send out or they receive petition...

if you can develop a software that can take into consideration all the petitions filed and not only those that voluntarily subscribe...that would be interesting...

Yet...i see Igor's list like a sort of election exit poll. Even if you only took a very small percentage of all voters....from different regions, social and age groups...your result would still be only plus/minus 0.5 - 1 % different than after the final count...

so what we see on Igor's list is pretty much realistic...

Just a couple things i would change.... NOA1 date in stead of petition sent...and also profiles that are not active for about 30 days should be excluded......

Am i making any sense???? lol

[HiTech 0]

Hi tech...I can see what you are trying to do now....lol

Must admit it took me a while....

i guess if it makes you pass the time it is good for you...but in my opinion the USCIS process is just about people working with people... And it is very difficult to put everything into mathematic formulas... Each case is different... and each case is handled by a human being...which we call Adjudicators... Sometimes we do wish they were machines and we could predict their work...But they are not...

We have all noticed that lately (don't know about months ago...) USCIS is shooting out the NOA2 in more or less a chronological order which can only be good news for all of us...

Your NOA1 is early april...so according to "my calculations" your NOA2 will come in a couple weeks

see if i'm right about that...

i agree that Igor's list algorythm should use the NOA1 date and not the day you send out or they receive petition...

if you can develop a software that can take into consideration all the petitions filed and not only those that voluntarily subscribe...that would be interesting...

Yet...i see Igor's list like a sort of election exit poll. Even if you only took a very small percentage of all voters....from different regions, social and age groups...your result would still be only plus/minus 0.5 - 1 % different than after the final count...

so what we see on Igor's list is pretty much realistic...

Just a couple things i would change.... NOA1 date in stead of petition sent...and also profiles that are not active for about 30 days should be excluded......

Am i making any sense???? lol

Aleena, Igors list is nothing but a simple query generated from VJ. I find his stats page to be most useful in predicting when visas would be finished.

If you look at this query from VJ.

http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/k1list...ll&dfile=No

Vermont seems to be on about 3-17 NOA1.

Count the number of open visas between there and 4-7 (my date) aproximately 35.

Now with igors stats you can estimate that currently they are processing between 5 - 10 visas per week. So a fair estimate would be 3.5 - 7 weeks.

You are correct that you can not 100% predict each case, and I have been studding the complete process including reading all the Adjudicators manual. But there are methods to have predictions change much more rapidly and hence give a better overall picture.

[Ana&Jeff 0]

Bex: Maybe she is trying to get more of your atention before you leave, just try to tell her that you are not going to another planet and that you will be able to talk to her and she talk to always always when you guys miss each other and that she won[t only depend on you to see each other she will always be able to go see you. =) Tell her that you will need her help on summer time to be with the kids hahahah that is what I told mine.... I was like dont worry we will be together all summer long hahahaha so yes and for you the best is for you to think that from the moment you leave those people are going to miss you but the few moments that you guys will get together again are going to be really special. We rather have spend a few good times with people we love than be with them all the time and do not give to this person the right value she has =)

Nich: It said they sent the aprovel leter on june 17 it will probably be at Jeffs house today or tomorrow Vermont is really close to MA so is a overnight mail. I guess I need wait the NVC send em a letter so I can now when they got my process right?? do they tell you when they send to the NVC???

HiTech: Ok! That is true I was going crazy about the timelines I didn[t think about that because I didn[t have any other case number to check...

Aleena: Who is Igor? the Hitech?

[KimandRuss 0]

Ana!!! @ your post last night.. it put a HUGE smile on my face and gave me quite a good giggle! I can't wait for that feeling...and I think you expressed it so well! Congratulations sweetie!

aleena... those panties are a cute idea! Great words of wisdom for us all yesterday..thanks!

Awww Bex...sorry it's getting tough again. You're right, time will help heal all wounds. It will all be ok once you're home in Alan's arms and settling into your new life here. Pass out lots of hugs but dont feel guilty or too down for being happy and in love.... enjoy this ride!

Late night for me... but our are world champs so it's all good. Busy day for me today as well and lots more on the agenda so I must be off but I needed my vj fix!

Was hoping to see more out of VSC this week. Hopefully we'll see a big burst of approvals show up at once! Happy thoghts!

[BexandAlan 0]

Morning Everyone.

Congrats on those that have had approvals this week. I see from Graham's stats we had a few more yesterday!

Thanks for the support guys. I know everything would be a lot easier if I had Alan here. Even if I couldn't share everything that needs sorting out at least I could get a cuddle for my efforts. Oh well … not long to go now I hope. If everything goes well I want to be in GA by the begining of August! Thats only 6 weeks away.

Congrats Anais and Jack on your sucessful interview yesterday. Good Luck Darren and Cristina for tomorrow!

Best wishes everyone

Bex xxx

[Dutti 0]

Do I see a couple more apprvovals on Igor's list !!

Maybe they really feel like working today and we'll see a bunch more by tomorrow...

Happy thoughts!

Positive vibes!

And good karma for everybody!!

Bex, GA's on my mind too

Nice day to everybody!!

[aleena 0]

I was glad to see a few more March aprovals this morning

I hope everybody is having a great day! I am entertaining myself with Bridget Jones (The Edge of Reason)... I saw the movie a while back but the book is hilarious )

I am trying not to read more than 100 pages a day...so it lasts longer... hehehe...i will be sad when it's over...

And then my next book on the list is about the Kennedys ...lol... I am getting serious...You can see why i am trying to enjoy Bridget Jones as much as i can...

Good vibes to all those waiting!!!! you are getting closer by the minute

[KimandRuss 0]

Good morning March filers. Nice to see more approvals when logging on this morning. Somehow it makes a better start to my day. I know you all understand.

Aleena, i'm envious of the time you get to read. I love books as well.... can't wait to have time to curl up on my hammock with a good book and no worries! *sigh* I'm just so busy all the time now. The Kennedy's should be a fascinating book. Of course, I am from Massachusetts so I may be biased.

Well I hope today finds the rest of you folks approved so they can move on to the bulk of April!

Have a good day folks

[Nich-Nick 3,354]

Good morning all. I love to wake up and see Igor's stats page with four instead of two. The approvals kinda filled in a few gaps in the list. It's a big toss up for how the order will be for the end of the list since Ww have a lot of people clumped with similar dates. Look at Ana, who jumped out there.

I'm "vibing" for Jessica and Dutti now. VIBES~~~~~

March is really just short of 74% done. The timelines search brings up different numbers, but there's people with two timelines in there that I have taken out of my list. I'm pretty sure there's only 23 March VJers waiting at this moment. We even had a name changed I noticed.

I'm so glad the NOA2 waiting is over for me and I don't have to think about packing, moving, and saying good-byes. You non-US guys are the real SUPERHEROES . If I was your Mom, I would lock you up and not let you go. hahahaha Well maybe if I had met your fiance and knew he was a good guy, then I would soften up a little, but I would be sad too. I guess it's because my extended family has mostly been within an hours drive from me, so I don't know separation by long distances. So... if your Moms and friends are sad acting, it's because they love you so dearly.

Have a great day and good luck with your waiting, packing, interview preparation.....whatever the case may be.

Edited June 19, 2008 by Nich-Nick

[Amaya's Mommy 0]

Hi everyone,

I am a fellow March filer and have been lurking on this thread for a while, never posted as I felt I didn't have much to contribute.

One thing I noticed is that my name is not on that list generated weekly on this thread, wonder why? Another thing is that it seems like everytime I check my timeline for the estimated adjudication date, it seems to get pushed back. I always wait for the first date listed and when I go and check the date has been pushed back. Maybe this has been addressed before and I have missed it.

I filed March 24 and seeing some approvals around that date gives me hope but having my estimated time pushed back all the time, does not.

[Nich-Nick 3,354]

Hi Mommy2B. So glad you posted. That's funny because on Tuesday I was looking over my list and realized I had never put you in the list. I had you in the spreadsheet I keep, but when things get updated or new people added, I have to go manually type them in the list I put here in the thread. I had forgotten to do that whenever you added your timeline.

Here's why your time gets pushed back. If there's say 100 people in a list, then over time 25 more discover the list (timeline) and add their names, it could affect your place on the list so to speak. If they all had dates earlier than you, it might push you back a little. I'm sure there is a great statistical explanation of this, but I think my concept will give you an idea of how that could happen, especially on Igor's list. Also as people post actual NOA2 dates, it gives new data to base the predictions on and maybe as the average time from NOA1 to NOA2 gets longer then the predictions add on time to yours based on how long it took others.

Come back and post sometime. Tell us about the baby...boy or girl? Names picked out? Your name is already on my list for next Monday and who knows, it could have a NOA2 date by it on Monday. Very possible. Best of luck to you.

Edited June 19, 2008 by Nich-Nick