Next Big Primary, Pennsylvania, Plays Up Clinton's Advantages

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By NICK TIMIRAOS

March 6, 2008; Page A8

Sen. Hillary Clinton has more good news to follow her election wins in Texas and Ohio: The next big contest comes in a state where she goes in with several advantages.

At stake in Pennsylvania's April 22 primary are 158 delegates and 29 superdelegates. The vote is closed to independents and Republicans -- who have favored Sen. Barack Obama so far. The state has fewer African-American voters than Ohio, where that group went heavily for Sen. Obama, by a margin of 87% to 13%. And it's located between two states where she has done well, Ohio and New Jersey.

Pennsylvania's older population also lifts Mrs. Clinton's prospects, given her success with those voters. Nearly 15% of Pennsylvanians are 65 or older, the third-largest share in the country. Its median age of 39.7 is the fifth-oldest in the country.

To be sure, the six weeks between next Tuesday's Mississippi primary and Pennsylvania's vote will be the longest stretch without an election since the primary process began Jan. 3 in Iowa. That allows both sides time to dig their trenches and go town-to-town for votes. There also are some differences; about 3.2% of Pennsylvania's population is Hispanic, for instance, compared with 32% for Texas and 1.9% for Ohio.

In many ways, Pennsylvania could serve up an encore to Ohio. The candidates could pick up their antitrade debate in Pittsburgh, where manufacturing losses have taken a heavy toll. But that might not play well in Philadelphia, whose port has benefited from international trade.

A win in Pennsylvania for Barack Obama can clinch his nomination, while a win for Hillary Clinton can make her a contender. Analysts expect more negative campaign ads as April nears.

The commonwealth has lost more than a fifth of its manufacturing jobs since 2000, while its strongest sector, education and health jobs, has posted a 15% gain, according to a March 2007 Brookings Institution report. But the newer jobs pay less -- an average salary of $42,500, compared with $62,400 in manufacturing -- feeding discontent over free-trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement, which became a hot-button issue in Tuesday's Ohio primary.

Pennsylvania also remains one of the nation's slowest-growing states, though growth has improved in recent years, as the economy of the eastern half of the state shifts from manufacturing to education and technology. Population grew by just 0.24% annually from 2000 to 2005, the fifth-worst in the nation; the U.S. population grew 1% population each year during the same period. Job growth in the commonwealth increased by just 1.1% from 2000 to 2006, compared with 3.3% nationwide.

Just over a third of registered Democrats singled out the economy as the most important issue in a recent Franklin & Marshall College poll, while 19% said health care was the top issue facing the country. Health expenses account for 9% of gross state product, among the highest rates in the nation, and ahead of Ohio's 8% and the national average of 7%.

The Iraq war also is a top issue. The state is home to 1.2 million veterans. Last October, 4,000 Pennsylvania soldiers with the 56th Stryker Brigade were told they could be sent to Iraq within a year.

The Clinton campaign already has hosted or planned volunteer events in Scranton, Lebanon, Erie and Coraopolis. Sen. Clinton visited Philadelphia in January to pick up endorsements from Gov. Ed Rendell and Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter. Mayor Joseph Sinnott of Erie and U.S. Reps. Paul Kanjorski, Joe Sestak and Allyson Schwartz also have endorsed Sen. Clinton. Sen. Clinton has a 13-4 advantage among superdelegates.

Sen. Obama has been endorsed by Rep. Patrick Murphy, a first-term congressman and Iraq war veteran, and Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski. The campaign has opened offices in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Harrisburg, Bethlehem and Doylestown.

Sen. Obama dismissed suggestions yesterday he is at a disadvantage in Pennsylvania after his loss in Ohio. "I don't buy into this demographic argument," he said, pointing to wins in Missouri and Virginia, where he performed well among whites and blue-collar workers. "They said that about Wisconsin, and we won by 18 points."

Polls show a tightening race as Sen. Obama surges among young voters in the state. His favorability rating has climbed among registered Democrats to 57% last month from 45% in August, while Sen. Clinton's 62% rating is unchanged, according to the Franklin & Marshall College poll.

"This is a pleasant surprise," said Abe Amoros of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party. "This is exactly what the governor wanted in the first place: a relevant primary in Pennsylvania."

After Pennsylvania, there are just eight states left to hold primaries, plus Guam and Puerto Rico, which votes last on June 7. The next big contest comes on May 6, when Indiana and North Carolina offer a combined 218 delegates.

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Edited March 6, 2008 by illumine