Hillary’s Math Problem - Forget tonight. She could win 16 straight and still lose

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Hillary Clinton may be poised for a big night tonight, with wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. Clinton aides say this will be the beginning of her comeback against Barack Obama. There's only one problem with this analysis: they can't count.

I'm no good at math either, but with the help of Slate’s Delegate Calculator I've scoped out the rest of the primaries, and even if you assume huge Hillary wins from here on out, the numbers don't look good for Clinton. In order to show how deep a hole she's in, I've given her the benefit of the doubt every week for the rest of the primaries.

So here we go: Let's assume Hillary beats expectations and wins Ohio tonight 55-45, Rhode Island 55-45, Texas, 53-47 and (this is highly improbable), ties in Vermont, 50-50.

Then it's on to Wyoming on Saturday, where, let's say, the momentum of today helps her win 53-47. Next Tuesday in Mississippi—where African-Americans play a big role in the Democratic primary—she shocks the political world by winning 52-48.

Then on April 22, the big one, Pennsylvania—and it's a Hillary blowout, 60-40, with Clinton picking up a whopping 32 delegates. She wins both of Guam's two delegates on May 30, and Indiana's proximity to Illinois does Obama no good on May 6, with the Hoosiers going for Hillary 55-45. The same day brings another huge upset in a heavily African-American state: enough North Carolina blacks desert Obama to give the state to Hillary 52-48, netting her five more delegates.

Suppose May 13 in West Virginia is no kinder to Obama, and he loses by double digits, netting Clinton two delegates. The identical 55-45 result on May 20 in Kentucky nets her five more. The same day brings Oregon, a classic Obama state. Oops! He loses there 52-48. Hillary wins by 10 in Montana and South Dakota on June 3, and primary season ends on June 7 in Puerto Rico with another big Viva Clinton! Hillary pulls off a 60-40 landslide, giving her another 11 delegates. She has enjoyed a string of 16 victories in a row over three months.

So at the end of regulation, Hillary's the nominee, right? Actually, this much-too-generous scenario (which doesn't even account for Texas's weird "pri-caucus" system, which favors Obama in delegate selection) still leaves the pledged-delegate score at 1,634 for Obama to 1,576 for Clinton. That's a 58-delegate lead.

Let's say the Democratic National Committee schedules do-overs in Florida and (heavily African-American) Michigan. Hillary wins big yet again. But the chances of her netting 56 delegates out of those two states would require two more huge margins. (Unfortunately the Slate calculator isn't helping me here.)

So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal.

For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead.

The Clintonites can spin to their heart's content about how Obama can't carry any large states besides Illinois. How he can't close the deal. How they've got the Big Mo now.

Tell it to Slate's Delegate Calculator.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/118240

[simple_male 1]

Math is good, cuz it tells who is ahead and who is behind.

[no name 1]

Math is good, cuz it tells who is ahead and who is behind.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead.

The Clintonites can spin to their heart's content about how Obama can't carry any large states besides Illinois. How he can't close the deal. How they've got the Big Mo now.

Tell it to Slate's Delegate Calculator.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/118240

This is what I've been saying for the last few days. The numbers don't lie. Hillary needs to do the right thing after tonight and bow out gracefully. She fought a good fight. She was a stellar candidate, but Obama caught up to her early lead and passed her with no chance of her catching up.

[no name 1]

For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead.

The Clintonites can spin to their heart's content about how Obama can't carry any large states besides Illinois. How he can't close the deal. How they've got the Big Mo now.

Tell it to Slate's Delegate Calculator.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/118240

This is what I've been saying for the last few days. The numbers don't lie. Hillary needs to do the right thing after tonight and bow out gracefully. She fought a good fight. She was a stellar candidate, but Obama caught up to her early lead and passed her with no chance of her catching up.

FYI - The nomination elections are not over Steven.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead.

The Clintonites can spin to their heart's content about how Obama can't carry any large states besides Illinois. How he can't close the deal. How they've got the Big Mo now.

Tell it to Slate's Delegate Calculator.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/118240

This is what I've been saying for the last few days. The numbers don't lie. Hillary needs to do the right thing after tonight and bow out gracefully. She fought a good fight. She was a stellar candidate, but Obama caught up to her early lead and passed her with no chance of her catching up.

FYI - The nomination elections are not over Steven.

It would be pointless for her to stay in except out of pure stubbornness. If you know that statistically speaking you will never get enough delegate votes to win the nomination and the front runner has too much of a comfortable lead for you to ever catch up, then you bow out. That's what candidates do. They don't stay in until the end...you gotta know when it's time to call it quits and after today, Hillary needs to end her run.

Edited March 4, 2008 by Mister Fancypants

[BJZags 17]

It would be pointless for her to stay in except out of pure stubbornness. If you know that statistically speaking you will never get enough delegate votes to win the nomination and the front runner has too much of a comfortable lead for you to ever catch up, then you bow out. That's what candidates do. They don't stay in until the end...you gotta know when it's time to call it quits and after today, Hillary needs to end her run.

Nothing like dis-infranchising the voters who come after, say, California. Your basically telling them their vote doesn't count for anything. How nice for you early states to make up my mind for me! Your assuming that Obama keeps the train-a-rolling without any slip-ups. You never know what "dirt" the media might uncover about this "annointed one" and propel our "fair" lady into the convention.

[no name 1]

It would be pointless for her to stay in except out of pure stubbornness. If you know that statistically speaking you will never get enough delegate votes to win the nomination and the front runner has too much of a comfortable lead for you to ever catch up, then you bow out. That's what candidates do. They don't stay in until the end...you gotta know when it's time to call it quits and after today, Hillary needs to end her run.

Nothing like dis-infranchising the voters who come after, say, California. Your basically telling them their vote doesn't count for anything. How nice for you early states to make up my mind for me! Your assuming that Obama keeps the train-a-rolling without any slip-ups. You never know what "dirt" the media might uncover about this "annointed one" and propel our "fair" lady into the convention.

[Ban Hammer 13,355]

For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead.

The Clintonites can spin to their heart's content about how Obama can't carry any large states besides Illinois. How he can't close the deal. How they've got the Big Mo now.

Tell it to Slate's Delegate Calculator.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/118240

This is what I've been saying for the last few days. The numbers don't lie. Hillary needs to do the right thing after tonight and bow out gracefully. She fought a good fight. She was a stellar candidate, but Obama caught up to her early lead and passed her with no chance of her catching up.

FYI - The nomination elections are not over Steven.

It would be pointless for her to stay in except out of pure stubbornness. If you know that statistically speaking you will never get enough delegate votes to win the nomination and the front runner has too much of a comfortable lead for you to ever catch up, then you bow out. That's what candidates do. They don't stay in until the end...you gotta know when it's time to call it quits and after today, Hillary needs to end her run.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

It would be pointless for her to stay in except out of pure stubbornness. If you know that statistically speaking you will never get enough delegate votes to win the nomination and the front runner has too much of a comfortable lead for you to ever catch up, then you bow out. That's what candidates do. They don't stay in until the end...you gotta know when it's time to call it quits and after today, Hillary needs to end her run.

Nothing like dis-infranchising the voters who come after, say, California. Your basically telling them their vote doesn't count for anything. How nice for you early states to make up my mind for me! Your assuming that Obama keeps the train-a-rolling without any slip-ups. You never know what "dirt" the media might uncover about this "annointed one" and propel our "fair" lady into the convention.

The Primaries are different in that way. The Party is trying to nominate the best candidate they have and it's a horse race...only they're in the final lap, Obama's speed (momentum) and lead make it statistically improbable that Clinton will be able to catch up and beat him. At some point, the party needs to throw its support behind one of the candidates so they can prepare to square off in the general election. For Clinton to stay in past tonight (barring that she wins by a 10 point margin in both Texas and Ohio) would would be disservice to the Party. Take it for what you will. This is the DNP's process.

[no name 1]

It would be pointless for her to stay in except out of pure stubbornness. If you know that statistically speaking you will never get enough delegate votes to win the nomination and the front runner has too much of a comfortable lead for you to ever catch up, then you bow out. That's what candidates do. They don't stay in until the end...you gotta know when it's time to call it quits and after today, Hillary needs to end her run.

Nothing like dis-infranchising the voters who come after, say, California. Your basically telling them their vote doesn't count for anything. How nice for you early states to make up my mind for me! Your assuming that Obama keeps the train-a-rolling without any slip-ups. You never know what "dirt" the media might uncover about this "annointed one" and propel our "fair" lady into the convention.

The Primaries are different in that way. The Party is trying to nominate the best candidate they have and it's a horse race...only they're in the final lap, Obama's speed (momentum) and lead make it statistically improbable that Clinton will be able to catch up and beat him. At some point, the party needs to throw its support behind one of the candidates so they can prepare to square off in the general election. For Clinton to stay in past tonight (barring that she wins by a 10 point margin in both Texas and Ohio) would would be disservice to the Party. Take it for what you will. This is the DNP's process.

see my new topic.

[BJZags 17]

Take it for what you will. This is the DNP's process.

If that is truly the DNP's process, then maybe it is a good thing I am a RINO (republican in name only). If the dem's can't stir up the votes to oust the incumbent party, no matter who gets the nomination, maybe I wasn't so out of my mind to register Republican when I turned 18.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Take it for what you will. This is the DNP's process.

If that is truly the DNP's process, then maybe it is a good thing I am a RINO (republican in name only). If the dem's can't stir up the votes to oust the incumbent party, no matter who gets the nomination, maybe I wasn't so out of my mind to register Republican when I turned 18.

Same thing has happened with the Republican Primaries, except that McCain took the lead because most states have a winner-takes-all approach. There's never going to be one candidate or one President that everyone will like. In terms of where they stand on many issues, Clinton and Obama are similar, so the contrasts between the two come down to other traits that the Democratic Party thinks will make the best nominee. I'm not sure why anyone should feel dismayed or disenfranchised by the process.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead.

The Clintonites can spin to their heart's content about how Obama can't carry any large states besides Illinois. How he can't close the deal. How they've got the Big Mo now.

Tell it to Slate's Delegate Calculator.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/118240

This is what I've been saying for the last few days. The numbers don't lie. Hillary needs to do the right thing after tonight and bow out gracefully. She fought a good fight. She was a stellar candidate, but Obama caught up to her early lead and passed her with no chance of her catching up.

FYI - The nomination elections are not over Steven.

No they're not. But soon they won't matter. Unless the Dems unite behind a candidate quickly, they will lose in November as they have each and every time when they dragged the nomination battle into the convention. It's never worked for them and it won't work for them this time either. They either get their ####### together very soon after tonight or they may as well save us all the trouble and concede to John McCain this weekend.

[Peikko 1,575]

As I said, they would deserve to lose if everyone of them shared this defeatist attitude. Honestly, I find this astonishing. So, it's not so easy to get the nomination, tough ####.