Expectations for Obama to Win Nomination Nearing 90%

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Rasmussen Markets shows that Barack Obama is given an 87% chance of winning the Democratic Presidential Nomination. His sole remaining challenger, Hillary Clinton, is given less than a 13% chance of emerging victorious from this competition (current prices: Obama 78.4% Clinton 23.4%).

A review of data over the past month shows that expectations for Obama have been growing steadily ever since the run-up to the Super Tuesday Primaries on February 5.

Just prior to Super Tuesday, the market data showed Obama to be a very slight underdog with expectations in the low-to-mid 40% range. Following Super Tuesday, Obama became a slight favorite, with the markets setting his prospects in the mid-fifty percent range. A string of victories that following weekend and in the Potomac Primaries a week after Super Tuesday pushed expectations for Obama over the 70% range.

Obama’s numbers have continued creeping upwards ever since—he passed the 80% level following a decisive victory in Wisconsin. That is the momentum Clinton is trying to reverse with her new campaign commercial raising the national security issue in a dramatic manner.

Looking ahead to the March 4 primaries, Obama leads in Vermont and holds a very narrow advantage in Texas. Clinton leads in Rhode Island and is clinging to a very narrow lead in Ohio. If Clinton is able to pull off victories in three of the four states, it is likely to reduce expectations that Obama will emerge as the nominee. Exactly how much it will impact the numbers will probably depend upon the size of the victories. On the other hand, since the Clinton campaign earlier identified Ohio and Texas as their firewall states, a loss in either is likely to further increase expectations for Obama.

Currently, Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 52.9% chance of winning in Texas and a 17.1% chance of winning in Ohio.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content...tion_nearing_90

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

He will lose by 20 percentage points in both TX and OH.

[no name 1]

Rasmussen Markets is a fun and challenging gaming environment for a passionate community of political prophets and news junkies. It costs nothing to play, but offers plenty of brain teasing stimulation and satisfaction.

So a gaming site is a reliable source? What a reach, Steven.

He will lose by 20 percentage points in both TX and OH.

Edited March 4, 2008 by illumine

[simple_male 1]

He will lose by 20 percentage points in both TX and OH.

I don't think so. He might lose in OH with a much narrower margin than you think and he will win in TX because of its complicated caucus and primary. Just my opinion.

Edited March 4, 2008 by simple_male

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Rasmussen Markets is a fun and challenging gaming environment for a passionate community of political prophets and news junkies. It costs nothing to play, but offers plenty of brain teasing stimulation and satisfaction.

So a gaming site is a reliable source? What a reach, Steven.

Not sure where you got that, but...

Reports by Slate Magazine and The Wall Street Journal found that Rasumussen Reports was one of the most accurate polling firms for the 2004 United States presidential election and 2006 United States general elections, respectively.[1][2]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Steven,

Rasmussen Markets isn't Rasmussen Reports. It's basically a fantasy political league.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Steven,

Rasmussen Markets isn't Rasmussen Reports. It's basically a fantasy political league.

You mean this site?

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content...tion_nearing_90

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Yeah the webpage cites Rasmussen Markets, not an actual poll.

[no name 1]

Yeah the webpage cites Rasmussen Markets, not an actual poll.

His story says it too!

Rasmussen Markets shows that Barack Obama is given an 87% chance of winning the Democratic Presidential Nomination. His sole remaining challenger, Hillary Clinton, is given less than a 13% chance of emerging victorious from this competition (current prices: Obama 78.4% Clinton 23.4%).

Edited March 4, 2008 by illumine

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Yeah the webpage cites Rasmussen Markets, not an actual poll.

True...but it was being reported on Rasmussen Reports. In any case, it shows that in spite of Hillary's assertions, an overwhelming majority of people think otherwise.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Yeah the webpage cites Rasmussen Markets, not an actual poll.

True...but it was being reported on Rasmussen Reports. In any case, it shows that in spite of Hillary's assertions, an overwhelming majority of people think otherwise.

I'll grant you that. The math is prohibitive.

She can still do it though. She's a Clinton.

[no name 1]

Yeah the webpage cites Rasmussen Markets, not an actual poll.

True...but it was being reported on Rasmussen Reports. In any case, it shows that in spite of Hillary's assertions, an overwhelming majority of people think otherwise.

Steven. I would have thought you would read your stories before posting. There is a hotlink to Rasmussen Markets in that story you posted! Of course, Rasmussen REPORTS would post their own gaming site's results.

And as far as predicting 2008, I doubt it. Look how it changed since Saturday. A site like that is skewed.

Edited March 4, 2008 by illumine

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Yeah the webpage cites Rasmussen Markets, not an actual poll.

True...but it was being reported on Rasmussen Reports. In any case, it shows that in spite of Hillary's assertions, an overwhelming majority of people think otherwise.

Steven. I would have thought you would read your stories before posting. There is a hotlink to Rasmussen Markets in that story you posted! Of course, Rasmussen REPORTS would post their own gaming site's results.

They published the findings as anyone would have had they owned both sites. Anyway, it's food for thought.

Edited March 4, 2008 by Mister Fancypants

[mawilson 2,133]

I'll grant you that. The math is prohibitive.

She can still do it though. She's a Clinton.

Clinton is still trading at 20.0/20.7.

www.intrade.com

If you're so sure, invest $20,000 and make $80,000 when she wins.