Clinton optimistic about Ohio and Texas

[one...two...tree 2,762]

It would certainly be an exaggeration to describe today as a "Super Tuesday," but with four primaries and 370 pledged delegates at stake, today is the biggest day on the Democratic nominating calendar since the actual Super Tuesday a month ago.

Gaming out the various scenarios is tricky, not only because the results are unpredictable, but because so much of the aftermath will be based on expectations, perceptions, and spin. It's probably a good idea to consider the scenarios now.

Scenario #1: Obama wins Texas and Ohio

Given all of the recent polls and media attention that's cut Clinton's way, this seems highly unlikely. In fact, I haven't seen or heard a single political observer anywhere who thinks this outcome is even possible. If, however, it comes to pass, Obama winning Clinton's two firewall states will end the race for the Democratic nomination, and Clinton will almost certainly drop out fairly quickly. The margin wouldn't make much difference — whether Obama ekes out narrow victories or cruises to easy wins, if he takes both, it's over. But given how improbable this….

Scenario #2: Clinton wins Ohio; Obama wins Texas

A few weeks ago, the conventional wisdom suggested (indeed, Bill Clinton said rather explicitly) that Clinton needed to win both of her firewall states in order to stay competitive. The CW has apparently shifted of late, and the Clinton campaign now believes she can afford to lose one firewall state and stay in the race anyway. (Clinton boasted yesterday that she's "just getting warmed up.")

Given Ohio's general-election importance, Clinton would likely say that her success in the state justifies staying in the race, and should serve as evidence of her stopping Obama's momentum. Obama's campaign would argue, meanwhile, that a Clinton defeat in Texas makes it practically impossible for her to be the nominee, and dragging the process out any further would only help Republicans. Given the importance Clinton placed on Texas, Obama's spin may very well rule the day if this occurs.

http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/

[Dan J 277]

But no t-shirt?

Just wrong.

If she loses, it's your fault!

*sigh*

I've spent hours agitating the Obama-koolaid drinkers (& Reps) on VJ, surely that's worth thousands?

And it has backfired.