TexOhio Primary Predictions

[mawilson 2,133]

As that soldier said to Chelsea Clinton in Iraq,

"We dont want Osama, we don't want Obama and we certainly don't want your Mama"

[no name 1]

New Ohio Poll: Clinton Up By About 9 Points

Submitted by Jeff on Mon, 03/03/2008 - 10:48am.

The University of Cincinnati has released its final Ohio Poll concerning tomorrow's election and a relatively easy win by Clinton is projected:

51.3% Clinton

42.3% Obama

6.0% Edwards

0.4% Other

For this poll, undecided voters were allocated to the candidates they are most likely to support. 624 probably Democratic voter were interviewed between Feb. 28th and March 2nd and the potential sampling error is 3.9%.

This poll contrasts sharply with the Zogby two-day tracking poll that shows the race deadlocked but trending Obama's way.

link

So...using those numbers and plugging them into the delegate calculator (http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/)

Ohio:

Clinton gets 85 and Obama gains 56

Texas: (lets assume it's a 50/50 tie)

Clinton gets 97 and Obama gets 97

Rhode Island: (assuming 60/40)

Clinton gets 13 Obama 8

Vermont: (assuming a split 50/50)

Clinton 8 Obama 8

For a grand total of:

Clinton 203 Obama 169

....now add that to their national totals:

Clinton 1482 Obama 1561

..............................

Like I've said, Hillary cannot catch up to Obama at this point in the Primaries. She will continue to trail all the way to the bloody Convention where the Super Delegates will choose the one with the most delegates and most popular votes.....Obama.

So unless you are hoping for Obama to completely fall on his face and lose his supporter like flies dropping from the sky, there's no reason for Hillary to continue past tomorrow unless she wins in both Texas and Ohio by large numbers which even by your admission isn't going to happen.

And where did you read that?

As far as your guesses above, I think you must be borrowing Gary's crystal ball.

You are thinking that she'll do better than the very poll numbers you posted?

I'm optimistic Steven. However, polls are polls. I'm *THINKING* I'll watch the results come in instead of whatifwhatifwhatif and/or being negative.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

As that soldier said to Chelsea Clinton in Iraq,

"We dont want Osama, we don't want Obama and we certainly don't want your Mama"

[Don_Joy's Prince 0]

Will 55-40 make a sufficient dent in Obama's delegate lead?

I think she needs 60-40 and I think she'll get it. The polls are understating her support.

I think Troll is right on this point. I think her actual support is being under estimated in the polls. Like it was in New Hampshire.