TexOhio Primary Predictions

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Democrats

If nothing else, I think we'll see the end of Barack Obama's consecutive win streak. Hillary Clinton has a double digit lead in Rhode Island and, barring a complete disaster for her, it looks like she'll at least win that one.

Obama, on the other hand, looks to be headed to an easy victory in Vermont.

But that's just the warm-up show. The big showdown will be in Texas and Ohio, and the race is tight in both states.

Let's take Texas first. The trend has been clearly in Obama's favor for the past two weeks and I think that will be enough for him to coast to a victory. His victory in the primary itself is likely to be narrow, but he will do well in the caucus part of the process and will come out of the day with the majority of the Lone Star State's delegates.

As for the Buckeye State, this one really ought to be put in a too-close-to-call category, but I'll go out on a limb and say that Clinton manages to pull off a victory here, albeit an incredibly slim one. Even if I'm wrong and Obama wins, I think the margin of victory will be under 5 percentage points, which will be important when it comes to allocating delegates.

It's the delegate count that matters, of course, and here's where we stand right now:

Pledged Delegates

1. Barack Obama — 1193 delegates
2. Hillary Clinton — 1038 delegates

Obama + 155

Total Delegates (w/ Super Delegates)

1. Barack Obama — 1389 delegates
2. Hillary Clinton — 1279 delegates

Obama + 110

As with past primaries, all of the Democratic primaries award delegates on a proportional basis, and Texas awards part of it's delegates based on the results of the Tuesday evening caucuses. Barack Obama will get the majority of Vermont's 15 delegates, and Hillary will get the majority of Rhode Island's 21 delegates. In Texas and Ohio though, they'll split the delegates much more evenly and any advantage that Hillary gets from winning Ohio could very easily be wiped out by the net gain Obama gets out of Texas.

By the time the dust settles later this week, I think we'll see that Obama is still ahead in pledged delegates by at least 150 and leading in total pledged delegates by at least 105.

After this there are only two races — Wyoming on March 8th and Mississippi on March 11th — between March 4th and the Pennsylvania primary on April 22nd. I have no idea what will happen in Wyoming — if it is, as I suspect, a caucus, then Obama will probably win — but I think it's fairly clear that Obama will win Mississippi. Unless Clinton can pull off something truly convincing and surprising tomorrow, which seems unlikely, the logic of her remaining in the race seems to be less and less tenable.

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Edited March 3, 2008 by Mister Fancypants

[no name 1]

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Who Am I ? Why Am I Here ?

by Doug Mataconis @ 11:04 pm on November 22, 2005.

A very good question, some people who know me might say.

I’m a 37 year old attorney living in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC. Those of you who know Washington know that it is surrounding by an eight-lane highway called the Beltway. My homestead is about 30 miles south of the Beltway, hence the admittedly unoriginal name for my blog, Below The Beltway

My experience with politics goes further back than I care to remember sometimes. I can remember following the Presidential election of 1976 as a class project in 3rd grade. I was in 6th grade when the Iranian Hostage Crisis took place and recall celebrating with a few friends the day Ronald Reagan was elected President. For a time in high school and college I was involved in politics on the local and state levels in the Republican Party, volunteering on campaigns, serving for several months as unpaid volunteer/intern in the District office of what was then the only conservative Congressman in the entire State of New Jersey. And, it was probably my interest in politics that most signficantly motivated my decision to go to law school.

On the intellectual side, I guess its fair to say that I started out as a conservative of some variety and gradually became a libertarian. In college, I was a subscriber to National Review and started reading Milton Friedman and other economists. That eventually led me to Hayek, Mises, and Rothbard. Then the floodgates started to open. I discovered Ayn Rand and read everything she wrote as fast as I could. For a time, I considered myself an Objectivist but, that infatuation started to fade as I became more familiar with some of the more cult-like elements of that philosophy.

I’ve also distanced myself from the more extreme elements of the libertarian movement. I was, I will admit, not entirely a supporter of the first Gulf War. I found the idea of American soldiers being sent into battle to defend the Kuwaiti and Saudi Royal families and their 15th Century ideologies to be offensive. I opposed the interventions in Somalia and the former Yugoslavia. But then, September 11th happened. Call me a pro-war libertarian who watched the Twin Towers fall live on television. All I know is that the evidence is clear that Western Civilization is in a fight for its own survival right now. Following the naive foreign policy advocated by the Libertarian Party and its pacifist allies is, quite frankly, a prescription for suicide.

Anyway, I started blogging, most appropriately I might say, on July 4th 2005. I’d been reading blogs for years before then and had told myself on more than one occasion that I would start one myself. Along with research, writing is one of the things I enjoy most about being an attorney and its nice to have an outlet to write about the things that interest, amuse or annoy me on a daily basis.

Edited March 3, 2008 by illumine

[no name 1]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/03/dem...ries/index.html

A "poll of polls" calculated Monday by CNN for the Texas race has Obama at 47 percent and Clinton at 45 percent, with 8 percent unsure. A CNN "poll of polls" for the Ohio race has Clinton ahead of Obama, 48 percent to 43 percent, with 9 percent unsure.

The Texas "poll of polls" is an average of five surveys conducted February 26 through Sunday: American Research Group, Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle/Zogby, MSNBC/McClatchy/Fort Worth Star-Telegram/Mason-Dixon, Fox News/Opinion Dynamics and Belo/Public Strategies.

The Ohio "poll of polls" is also an average of six surveys conducted February 26 through Sunday: American Research Group, Quinnipiac, Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle/Zogby, The Cleveland Plain Dealer/Mason-Dixon and Fox News/Opinion Dynamics.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Obama + 155

Hillbots -

Obama has a pledged delegate lead of 155 going into tomorrow.

How low do you think this lead will go after Hillary delivers her ol' Arkansas style a s s whuppin' tomorrow?

100?

80?

60?

*gasp* 40?

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Total numbers of delegates at stake tomorrow - 155 doesn't seem that big.

Ohio - 161

Rhode Island - 32

Texas - 228

Vermont - 23

[no name 1]

Obama + 155

Hillbots -

Obama has a pledged delegate lead of 155 going into tomorrow.

How low do you think this lead will go after Hillary delivers her ol' Arkansas style a s s whuppin' tomorrow?

100?

80?

60?

*gasp* 40?

Why are HC supporters called Hillbots? There is no 'slang' term for O supporters. How childish.

[Dan J 277]

Total numbers of delegates at stake tomorrow - 155 doesn't seem that big.

Ohio - 161

Rhode Island - 32

Texas - 228

Vermont - 23

No candidate is going take all the delegates from any state. She needs a large margin to turn the tide. Otherwise the lead Obama has will remain at 155.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

I like Hillbots. I think it's endearing. Speaks to Hillary's awesome organizational skills, her supporters act as one, unified and on-message.

[no name 1]

Poll: Hillary Takes Lead In Texas

By Eric Kleefeld - March 3, 2008, 11:57AM

The new Public Policy Polling (D) survey from Texas shows Hillary Clinton taking a lead here, a possible sign of recovery after polls had put Barack Obama in the lead for the past week. Here are the numbers compared to last week's poll:

Clinton 50% (+2)

Obama 44% (-4)

From the internals: Hillary leads 58%-37% among whites and 67%-30% with Hispanics, while Obama is ahead 78%-13% among a core base of black voters.

From the pollster's analysis: "Barack Obama has tried hard but still seems unable to win over Hispanic voters. That dynamic is what caused him to lose in California, and it looks like recent history may repeat itself tomorrow in Texas."

Meanwhile, the new Rasmussen poll shows Obama ahead in Texas by only a 48%-47% margin, after having previously led by four points.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmem...lead_in_tex.php

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Will 55-40 make a sufficient dent in Obama's delegate lead?

I think she needs 60-40 and I think she'll get it. The polls are understating her support.

[no name 1]

New Ohio Poll: Clinton Up By About 9 Points

Submitted by Jeff on Mon, 03/03/2008 - 10:48am.

The University of Cincinnati has released its final Ohio Poll concerning tomorrow's election and a relatively easy win by Clinton is projected:

51.3% Clinton

42.3% Obama

6.0% Edwards

0.4% Other

For this poll, undecided voters were allocated to the candidates they are most likely to support. 624 probably Democratic voter were interviewed between Feb. 28th and March 2nd and the potential sampling error is 3.9%.

This poll contrasts sharply with the Zogby two-day tracking poll that shows the race deadlocked but trending Obama's way.

link

[Dan J 277]

Will 55-40 make a sufficient dent in Obama's delegate lead?

I think she needs 60-40 and I think she'll get it. The polls are understating her support.

RI and VT will probably cancel each other out, leading to to a very little delegate change in other direction.

10 % lead in Ohio will equate to about 16 delegate gain.

10 % lead in Texas may result in a 23 delegate gain.

For her to close the delegate gap tomorrow, she will need huge leads. About 30-40% in both states, this is very unlikely. If obama leads in texas and clinton in Ohio by the same margin, Obama will make out with a couple more delegates.

So tommrrow, if its a tie, or win for Obama, Clinton is basically out of the race.

If Clinton leads by 10-20% in both states, then she will still have the momentum to lead on to the convention.

If Clinton leads by 30-40% in both states then she might end up with the nomination.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

New Ohio Poll: Clinton Up By About 9 Points

Submitted by Jeff on Mon, 03/03/2008 - 10:48am.

The University of Cincinnati has released its final Ohio Poll concerning tomorrow's election and a relatively easy win by Clinton is projected:

51.3% Clinton

42.3% Obama

6.0% Edwards

0.4% Other

For this poll, undecided voters were allocated to the candidates they are most likely to support. 624 probably Democratic voter were interviewed between Feb. 28th and March 2nd and the potential sampling error is 3.9%.

This poll contrasts sharply with the Zogby two-day tracking poll that shows the race deadlocked but trending Obama's way.

link

So...using those numbers and plugging them into the delegate calculator (http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/)

Ohio:

Clinton gets 85 and Obama gains 56

Texas: (lets assume it's a 50/50 tie)

Clinton gets 97 and Obama gets 97

Rhode Island: (assuming 60/40)

Clinton gets 13 Obama 8

Vermont: (assuming a split 50/50)

Clinton 8 Obama 8

For a grand total of:

Clinton 203 Obama 169

....now add that to their national totals:

Clinton 1482 Obama 1561

..............................

Like I've said, Hillary cannot catch up to Obama at this point in the Primaries. She will continue to trail all the way to the bloody Convention where the Super Delegates will choose the one with the most delegates and most popular votes.....Obama.

So unless you are hoping for Obama to completely fall on his face and lose his supporter like flies dropping from the sky, there's no reason for Hillary to continue past tomorrow unless she wins in both Texas and Ohio by large numbers which even by your admission isn't going to happen.

Edited March 4, 2008 by Mister Fancypants

[no name 1]

New Ohio Poll: Clinton Up By About 9 Points

Submitted by Jeff on Mon, 03/03/2008 - 10:48am.

The University of Cincinnati has released its final Ohio Poll concerning tomorrow's election and a relatively easy win by Clinton is projected:

51.3% Clinton

42.3% Obama

6.0% Edwards

0.4% Other

For this poll, undecided voters were allocated to the candidates they are most likely to support. 624 probably Democratic voter were interviewed between Feb. 28th and March 2nd and the potential sampling error is 3.9%.

This poll contrasts sharply with the Zogby two-day tracking poll that shows the race deadlocked but trending Obama's way.

link

So...using those numbers and plugging them into the delegate calculator (http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/)

Ohio:

Clinton gets 85 and Obama gains 56

Texas: (lets assume it's a 50/50 tie)

Clinton gets 97 and Obama gets 97

Rhode Island: (assuming 60/40)

Clinton gets 13 Obama 8

Vermont: (assuming a split 50/50)

Clinton 8 Obama 8

For a grand total of:

Clinton 203 Obama 169

....now add that to their national totals:

Clinton 1482 Obama 1561

..............................

Like I've said, Hillary cannot catch up to Obama at this point in the Primaries. She will continue to trail all the way to the bloody Convention where the Super Delegates will choose the one with the most delegates and most popular votes.....Obama.

So unless you are hoping for Obama to completely fall on his face and lose his supporter like flies dropping from the sky, there's no reason for Hillary to continue past tomorrow unless she wins in both Texas and Ohio by large numbers which even by your admission isn't going to happen.

And where did you read that?

As far as your guesses above, I think you must be borrowing Gary's crystal ball.

Edited March 4, 2008 by illumine

[one...two...tree 2,762]

New Ohio Poll: Clinton Up By About 9 Points

Submitted by Jeff on Mon, 03/03/2008 - 10:48am.

The University of Cincinnati has released its final Ohio Poll concerning tomorrow's election and a relatively easy win by Clinton is projected:

51.3% Clinton

42.3% Obama

6.0% Edwards

0.4% Other

For this poll, undecided voters were allocated to the candidates they are most likely to support. 624 probably Democratic voter were interviewed between Feb. 28th and March 2nd and the potential sampling error is 3.9%.

This poll contrasts sharply with the Zogby two-day tracking poll that shows the race deadlocked but trending Obama's way.

link

So...using those numbers and plugging them into the delegate calculator (http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/)

Ohio:

Clinton gets 85 and Obama gains 56

Texas: (lets assume it's a 50/50 tie)

Clinton gets 97 and Obama gets 97

Rhode Island: (assuming 60/40)

Clinton gets 13 Obama 8

Vermont: (assuming a split 50/50)

Clinton 8 Obama 8

For a grand total of:

Clinton 203 Obama 169

....now add that to their national totals:

Clinton 1482 Obama 1561

..............................

Like I've said, Hillary cannot catch up to Obama at this point in the Primaries. She will continue to trail all the way to the bloody Convention where the Super Delegates will choose the one with the most delegates and most popular votes.....Obama.

So unless you are hoping for Obama to completely fall on his face and lose his supporter like flies dropping from the sky, there's no reason for Hillary to continue past tomorrow unless she wins in both Texas and Ohio by large numbers which even by your admission isn't going to happen.

And where did you read that?

As far as your guesses above, I think you must be borrowing Gary's crystal ball.

You are thinking that she'll do better than the very poll numbers you posted?