InTrade prediction market

[mawilson 2,133]

InTrade allows you to use your $$$ to take part in a trading market to test your judgment

about the likelihood of certain events or outcomes taking place.

You can buy and sell contracts. Each "contract" is an event that will have an unambiguous

result.

An example of a political contract might be: "Will Hillary Clinton be elected president in 2008"?

The result will be unambiguous: Hillary Clinton either will be elected president or she won't.

When the election is over, the contract will be settled. If Hillary Clinton gets elected, the

contract will close at 100. If she is not elected, the contract will close at 0. Until the election

is over, the contract will fluctuate in value between 0 and 100 just like a stock, reacting to

the news of the day and buying and selling by traders.

Contracts trade between 0 and 100, so you can think of the price at any time to be the

percentage probability of that event occurring. Using the Hillary Clinton example, on

January 1, 2007 the Hillary Clinton election contract was trading on Intrade.com at 24 ($2.40),

which means that traders gave her a 24% chance of being elected in 2008. If you thought

Hillary Clinton would get elected then you would expect that price to go up towards 100 ($10).

So, if you bought one contract at $2.40, and held it until the election, and if Hillary did get

elected, you would make a profit of $7.60 - i.e., the difference between your purchase

price ($2.40) and the closing price ($10.00).

InTrade.com

Edited March 3, 2008 by mawilson

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Very sure.

She's a Clinton. Clinton's don't lose.

[mawilson 2,133]

Very sure.

She's a Clinton. Clinton's don't lose.

Well then open an account with intrade and go make lots of money!

Put your money where your mouth is.

Clinton contracts are on sale for a low $1.57 (15.7% probability)

Edited March 3, 2008 by mawilson

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

I have a big mouth but very small money.

[mawilson 2,133]

I have a big mouth but very small money.

You don't need a lot of money. You can start with $20.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Gotta wait till I get paid on the 15th... have you tried intrade?

[mawilson 2,133]

Gotta wait till I get paid on the 15th... have you tried intrade?

I have an account with them, but I haven't used it much. Hillary is currently trading

at 15%..... even if she doesn't ultimately win, the number will probably go up tomorrow

after the primaries.

McCain is at 95%......sure win, if you want to wait until November to make 5%.

[GaryC 7]

Gotta wait till I get paid on the 15th... have you tried intrade?

I have an account with them, but I haven't used it much. Hillary is currently trading

at 15%..... even if she doesn't ultimately win, the number will probably go up tomorrow

after the primaries.

McCain is at 95%......sure win, if you want to wait until November to make 5%.

They have McCain at 95% to win the election in Nov?

[no name 1]

Gotta wait till I get paid on the 15th... have you tried intrade?

I have an account with them, but I haven't used it much. Hillary is currently trading

at 15%..... even if she doesn't ultimately win, the number will probably go up tomorrow

after the primaries.

McCain is at 95%......sure win, if you want to wait until November to make 5%.

They have McCain at 95% to win the election in Nov?

[GaryC 7]

I answered my own question. McCain is at 95% to win the nomination. For the presidential election they have McCain at 35.4%, Obama at 55% and Clinton at 11.1%. I think the odds of McCain are a little better than that. I may place a bet.

[mawilson 2,133]

Unfortunately, U.S. issued credit cards don't seem to work anymore - something to do with U.S. anti-gambling legislation.

Checks and wire transfers still work, obviously.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Unfortunately, U.S. issued credit cards don't seem to work anymore - something to do with U.S. anti-gambling legislation.

Checks and wire transfers still work, obviously.

Well, then, forget it.

BTW intrade moves up and down with the polls. They are not predictive, they are reactive.

[mawilson 2,133]

Unfortunately, U.S. issued credit cards don't seem to work anymore - something to do with U.S. anti-gambling legislation.

Checks and wire transfers still work, obviously.

Well, then, forget it.

BTW intrade moves up and down with the polls. They are not predictive, they are reactive.

Maybe, maybe not. Bids and offers fluctuate due to all sorts of reasons.