How accurate are the timelines

[murfie 5]

Just doing various searches on the timeline and the figures seem to be all over the place, for example of from Sept to now of files sent to Vermont, only 6 approved, thats 6 months. So how does it predict that mine will be less than 5 months waiting when people from Sept and further back i am sure have no interview dates.

And is there stats on how many people don't bother to update the timeline, surely this will affect results. Its a great tool to have and is giving us much hope but i question how accurate it really is. Maybe others can explain better.

[mox 298]

The timelines are all out of whack right now because there was a mad dash in June and July to beat the USCIS fee increase. There were many, many more times the filers than the USCIS had anticipated, and so approval times became very long. Because the timeline is based partially on averaging out previous approvals, you will find that it's currently over-estimating your wait. As things settle down the timelines will become more accurate indicators.

[Jason-Sasha 1]

Everytime someone updates their timeline, the average wait time or "estimated adjudication date" changes. Since this average is based only on VJ members, it can be grossly inaccurate. In most cases the petitions are approved before the date which is estimated.