January Filers at the CSC - How are you doing?

[Cecile and Bryan 0]

No, I've been off the pill since January. I'll probably put it down to stress, but usually when I'm stressed it ends up being late!

yes maybe it's stress. Between waiting and not knowing when the next steps will be and preparing everything, going to the medical, etc. the MMR shot might have put created more reason to stress.

Yes, I would also say it is the stress!

I realised a couple of days ago that the wait for the papers from the embassy is getting me really anxious!

I started to have some stomach aches, and I also had my periods in advance, twice in May!!

As if once in a month is not enough....

(...)

Don't stress now! you've been able to wait 5 months, you can probably manage to stay sane for 2 or 3 more! Too bad they couldn't give you any information.

Maybe it's because they don't name things the same way you do. We say packet 3, but maybe they have a completely different name to it, and that's why he told you there wasn't such thing.

I had a good feeling - now I have a bad feeling. All this invisibility to the process is driving me crazy. With all the millions of dollars they are supposedly spending on this you'd think that there would be a better way of keeping informed.

To pass the time, I did some math (I know, I'm a geek): According to the stats, there are about 35000 K1s processed a year. Over a 200 work day year that means processing 175 a day. Over two centers (CSC and VSC) that means each center needs to process about 88 petitions a day. Therefore, in an eight hour day, they only need to process 10 or so an hour. If it takes 15 minutes to process each petition, then one adjudicator can process 32 a day. Therefore, each center should be able to process in a timely matter with only 2.75 adjudicators. I find it hard to believe that there are only 3 people in each office processing all the incoming K1s. And even if there were 3 there would no backlog.

This tells me that there are even less than 3 people in each center working on these. Even if they added one more person, they'd be able to rip through 30 additional a day.

If they added 10 people for a month, they'd be through 6400 petitions in a month. The last press release said they hired over 1300 people. How can none of these people be assigned to K1 duty???? The math, just like in Hillary's case, doesn't work out. They should not be going this slowly.

I read that they are not assigned on one type of visa. they will work on K1, K3, B1 visas and even citizenship applications. So, in order to represent the entire system, you would have to add every visa application, no matter what kind, into the equation. But even like that, I'm not sure the math would work out...

[Pam&Josh 0]

Don't stress now! you've been able to wait 5 months, you can probably manage to stay sane for 2 or 3 more! Too bad they couldn't give you any information.

Maybe it's because they don't name things the same way you do. We say packet 3, but maybe they have a completely different name to it, and that's why he told you there wasn't such thing.

Yes, you might be right Cécile!

I was just looking into the FAQ that embassies give different names for packet 3 ("Instruction packet") and to packet 4("Appointment packet").That might be one of the reasons he said that, but still that guy had a ton to me that I didn't like!!

I guess, I just need to be more patient! Rachel was saying she didn't received anything either.

I know I was doing "pretty" good since last january! I am stressing because it is still a big thing for me to realise I am leaving France for good this time.

I cannot wait to be with my sweet love, but it is also hard to be leaving my country. It is just the "transition" period who is stressing me out!!

Over that, we have our wedding date fixed to the 7th of September, and I want to be able to organize things in America, instead of having to do things through my fiancé and mother in law ( even if they are a big help for me now!!).

I am an anxious person but I will do my best to feel better, and to relaaaax

[Levi_Heather 0]

Good morning all and congrats to the latest approvals!!! Still nothing but bills in my mail box Hope everyone had a great weekend

Hey Heather, did you ever take a look into your siggy thingy?

TA DA

[aravis227 1]

Good morning all and congrats to the latest approvals!!! Still nothing but bills in my mail box Hope everyone had a great weekend

Hey Heather, did you ever take a look into your siggy thingy?

TA DA

Woo-hoo!

[Levi_Heather 0]

Good morning all and congrats to the latest approvals!!! Still nothing but bills in my mail box Hope everyone had a great weekend

Hey Heather, did you ever take a look into your siggy thingy?

TA DA

Woo-hoo!

LOL! I wanted green text but it did something weird when I tried that...... I'm getting so anxious! Hope we hear something soon!

Good morning all and congrats to the latest approvals!!! Still nothing but bills in my mail box Hope everyone had a great weekend

Hey Heather, did you ever take a look into your siggy thingy?

TA DA

Woo-hoo!

LOL! I wanted green text but it did something weird when I tried that...... I'm getting so anxious! Hope we hear something soon!

[aravis227 1]

Hellooooo? CSC? It's Monday...time to get up.

[Levi_Heather 0]

Hellooooo? CSC? It's Monday...time to get up.

Have you seen any new approvals today? I think the ones I saw were from the weekend.....

[aravis227 1]

Hellooooo? CSC? It's Monday...time to get up.

Have you seen any new approvals today? I think the ones I saw were from the weekend.....

I haven't seen anything yet...I suppose that's pretty normal for Mondays...I'm just impatient!

[sunnybear 0]

UGHH nothing yet! Just got in from work so need to catch up and all but dammit I was hoping to see some approvals when I got home!

[Levi_Heather 0]

OK its just because most people haven't checked the mail yet............. Yeah thats it.............

[aravis227 1]

Well...back in the olden days when on-line notification was working before this most recent break...they rarely put anything out on Monday. It was usually Tuesday before we saw anything. I wonder if the on-line system takes like 24-48 hours to update once an approval is logged in the system or something like that...that would explain why we rarely see anything on Monday, but we see Saturday and Sunday stuff. So I wouldn't worry too much about the lack of approvals today. However...I still want them to wake up!

[Levi_Heather 0]

Have a great evening Maybe we'll see approvals tomorrow!

[CourtAndGrey 0]

Hey WaitForever, from one math nerd to another, I understand the logic behind getting to the root of the numbers as a way to feel better. Check out one of my posts from awhile ago that describes some of my number crunching. Might be interesting to consider in relation to your numbers.

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/index.ph...p;#entry1662320

I had a good feeling - now I have a bad feeling. All this invisibility to the process is driving me crazy. With all the millions of dollars they are supposedly spending on this you'd think that there would be a better way of keeping informed.

To pass the time, I did some math (I know, I'm a geek): According to the stats, there are about 35000 K1s processed a year. Over a 200 work day year that means processing 175 a day. Over two centers (CSC and VSC) that means each center needs to process about 88 petitions a day. Therefore, in an eight hour day, they only need to process 10 or so an hour. If it takes 15 minutes to process each petition, then one adjudicator can process 32 a day. Therefore, each center should be able to process in a timely matter with only 2.75 adjudicators. I find it hard to believe that there are only 3 people in each office processing all the incoming K1s. And even if there were 3 there would no backlog.

This tells me that there are even less than 3 people in each center working on these. Even if they added one more person, they'd be able to rip through 30 additional a day.

If they added 10 people for a month, they'd be through 6400 petitions in a month. The last press release said they hired over 1300 people. How can none of these people be assigned to K1 duty???? The math, just like in Hillary's case, doesn't work out. They should not be going this slowly.

[WaitForever 0]

Ya I can see it. However something still doesn't add up - if we assume that your numbers are correct, and the VJ numbers represent 5%, and a typical 50 approval weeks nets over 1000 "full" approvals, then they should be able to process 50000 a year, and easily never getting behind, as the K1 numbers remain fairly static at around 35k a year. If they are processing a 1000 a week, thats 200 a day, 100 per center. My original estimate was about 32 per person per day. So it works out, each center has maybe 3 at most people working full time on K1s. sure it may not be the same 3 people all the time, but it means that at least 3 people need to work on the K1s every day. So these delays tell me that they can't even spare 3 people to concentrate on the K1s. If they did, they would be processed on time. As Cecile and Bryan said, they probably took these 3 people off doing K1s in order to handle the other visas. Pretty sad that they cant leave at least 3 people on our stuff at all times. I mean, 35k K1s are a drop in the bucket compared to the hundreds of thousands of N-400s they must have got. Just drives home the point that its all political. 35k petitioners are not enough to sway an election one way or another. We aren't enough of a voting block to matter. So even at a measly workload of 3 adjudicators per center, we get shafted

[BlakeandOlha 0]

Ya I can see it. However something still doesn't add up - if we assume that your numbers are correct, and the VJ numbers represent 5%, and a typical 50 approval weeks nets over 1000 "full" approvals, then they should be able to process 50000 a year, and easily never getting behind, as the K1 numbers remain fairly static at around 35k a year. If they are processing a 1000 a week, thats 200 a day, 100 per center. My original estimate was about 32 per person per day. So it works out, each center has maybe 3 at most people working full time on K1s. sure it may not be the same 3 people all the time, but it means that at least 3 people need to work on the K1s every day. So these delays tell me that they can't even spare 3 people to concentrate on the K1s. If they did, they would be processed on time. As Cecile and Bryan said, they probably took these 3 people off doing K1s in order to handle the other visas. Pretty sad that they cant leave at least 3 people on our stuff at all times. I mean, 35k K1s are a drop in the bucket compared to the hundreds of thousands of N-400s they must have got. Just drives home the point that its all political. 35k petitioners are not enough to sway an election one way or another. We aren't enough of a voting block to matter. So even at a measly workload of 3 adjudicators per center, we get shafted

The fundamental error in your math is the baseline assumption that the visa center has people working on K-1 visas full time - They do not have anyone working on K-1's full time, and never have. Nor does the processing center segregate K--1 applications from other applications to make this even possible. I suggest you read the post made by an adjudicator where he discusses in some detail the process used by the adjudicators. Additionally, you should know that not all visas are of the same priority level, work visas are processed at a higher priority level than K-1 or asylum requests(I read that in a Nebraska Processing Center forum). (there were over 268,000 H1-B visas alone this last year). There are also student visas that reach peak volume timeframes and are time sensitive that must be dealt with. Some applications are complex and require substantial work, others tend to be much easier. The bottom line is that the number of visas handled and processed is well over a million (RebecaJo has better information on total applications processed- but the number is substantial and the service center is not transparent enough to provide the data to extrapolate any reasonable analysis. All types of visa applications arrive, every day, they are logged in, they are boxed. They are not sorted and boxed by visa type - they are all just boxed as they arrive.

It's frustrating, I agree, and I wish that the center had twice as many processors as they do; however, as much as I would like this to be the case, it is not. Moreover, who am I to put myself in front of someone seperated from their family, or someone having fled in fear of their lives from another country, or any other story out there. What makes us more deserving of special treatment - which is what I think your saying. I went through the same calculations myself a few months back and I found it to be more on par with a dog chasing his tail - any conclusions are illusionary. Just my opinion.