Blue-collar vote tough for Obama

[no name 1]

WASHINGTON — Even when Sen. Barack Obama was the presidential candidate of the open collar, he was never the blue-collar one.

And these days, now that he rarely appears in public without a suit and tie, Obama is coming to grips with an undeniable trend: People with college degrees and higher incomes tend to choose him, while working-class voters, at least white ones, are more likely to favor Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York.

This is by no means a new divide within the Democratic Party, whose economically diverse population includes Hollywood glitterati, union workers and every pay grade in between. (Think Kendall-Jackson meets Anheuser-Busch.)

But the preferences are emerging in such stark terms lately that even the Obama team may be accepting it as a difficult reality. In a memo leaked last week, Obama campaign staffers projected they were likely to lose in a handful of states—which just happen to be heavy with blue-collar workers.

The beer-wine dynamic is not as significant as the gender divide, which is sending many female voters to Clinton's side. Still, it's an important factor as the race moves into the most competitive phase yet, in which any sliver of the electorate that sticks together might make the difference.

"His support tends to be stronger in suburban areas where you have white-collar professionals," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. "There has always been a division among the Democratic Party among its limousine liberals and its blue-collar workers."

The party has a history of producing candidates who mesmerize better-educated, wealthier voters, from Adlai Stevenson to Bill Bradley to Paul Tsongas. But Obama has gone well beyond them in terms of generating excitement and winning states, even among a healthy chunk of lower-income voters.

Clinton might not seem to have a natural appeal to working-class Democrats, but her husband's enduring popularity adds to her image as a fighter for ordinary people in contrast to Obama's sometimes professorial image.

In some contests on Super Tuesday, Obama held his own with voters in that group. Still, there was plenty of evidence that in many places they lean toward Clinton, according to exit polls.

In California, for example, Clinton dominated among voters whose families had incomes of less than $50,000, picking up 6 out of 10 of their votes. Among California voters who lacked a college degree, Clinton dominated by about the same margin.

Obama did considerably better among Californians in families with incomes of about $50,000 or more, tying Clinton.

Meanwhile, in one recent national poll, Obama won college-educated voters by more than 20 percentage points. And in Connecticut, where Obama won by a small margin, he dominated among those with college degrees, beating Clinton by 17 percentage points.

Part of the disparity owes to the devotion some union leaders have to Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, Obama supporters argue.

"Among the ranks of union people, there's a strong support for Barack," said Sen. ####### Durbin (D-Ill.), an Obama backer. "But as far as union leadership is concerned, there are long-term relationships with the Clintons."

That has meant endorsements for Clinton, he argues, and thus union votes for her. Still, there is dissatisfaction with Clinton in labor circles over the North American Free Trade Agreement and other trade policies of her husband's administration.

While Clinton tends to do better among the working class, there were specific state contests where Obama held his own among the group.

And Obama speculated that working-class people don't have a lot of time to devote to getting to know a new public figure.

"With a lot of blue-collar workers, they're busy with their lives and, you know, aren't spending a lot of time reading" news reports, he said. "The more we campaign, particularly in face-to-face settings, the better off we do with all voters. The schedule was so compressed that we didn't have as much of an opportunity to do it in this election." His strategy in upcoming primaries is to hold as many economic round tables and town hall meetings as possible.

In an Obama strategy memo leaked last week and reported by Bloomberg news service, Obama's advisers predicted victories in at least 19 of the remaining 28 primaries and caucuses, with Clinton winning the big states of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Those states have a large population of working-class voters.

More reasons for gap

Obama has a deficit with some of those voters, said one strategist.

"They still don't know Sen. Obama very well," said Bill Carrick, a veteran Democratic strategist not affiliated with Obama or Clinton. "Oftentimes, blue-collar voters ... tend to be late deciders and tend to vote for people they have known a long time."

Another part of the gap in California is almost certainly attributable to the state's large Latino population, which went more than 2-1 for Clinton, according to exit polls. But nationwide, at least, it's met by a countervailing wind: Obama benefits by strong support from fellow African-American voters.

Indeed, Obama performed better among the working class in Missouri, where the overall result was nearly evenly split between the two candidates. There, aided by a large African-American population in the St. Louis area, he beat Clinton among those with family incomes of less than $50,000.

Among African-Americans, Coker said, Obama enjoys support among all income and education groups, so the problem is one primarily among lower-income whites.

Coker said Obama's struggle to draw more support from women is likely a bigger problem because they typically represent about 60 percent of Democratic primary voters. Still, he cautioned that trying to isolate the importance of one segment of voters is challenging.

"He's losing women, but he's not losing by huge margins, and the flip side of that is that he gets more men," Coker said. "These groups are kind of layered on top of one another. Everybody is multifaceted. If you can find one way to improve your numbers with even one of those groups, it can help with the others."

In recent years, few Democratic candidates have managed to appeal to both the beer and wine voters, with the possible exception of Bill Clinton.

But some union activists say that Obama's way appeals to them.

"I like the way that he came up," said Thom McDaniel, a flight attendant and international vice president of the Transport Workers Union, which is trying to mobilize members to vote for Obama in Tuesday's primaries in Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C. "He was an organizer and advocate in Chicago. He seems in touch with my life."

McDaniel is bothered by the fact that Clinton formerly sat on the board of Wal-Mart, which he and many other union members boycott because of what they see as unfair labor practices.

'He's a little glib'

At a Clinton rally in the Washington area last week, several of her supporters said they just don't relate to the way Obama speaks. "I think he's a little glib for my liking," said Fiaza Haniffa, a Montessori teacher in Fairfax, Va. "He's a little superior."

Clinton speaks of hardship and struggle, and of specific things she would do to make life better for working people, said Nancy Heath, a massage therapist in Virginia who describes her work as "manual labor" and herself as "a working-class gal."

"[Obama] talks about grand ideological aspirations," said Heath, "but he doesn't know the reality. ... He talks to this higher level. She talks about the day-to-day level."

Heath especially disliked the way Obama responded at a debate when Clinton was asked whether her opponent is more "likable" than she is.

"Well, that hurts my feelings," Clinton said.

"You're likable enough," Obama replied.

"It was like he owned the show and he patted her on the head," Heath said. "There's just something about his manner that grinds against me."

As they head into primaries in states with highly educated populations, Obama strategist David Axelrod thinks Clinton is vulnerable on trade and other economic issues, including her plan to penalize people who don't purchase health insurance.

Although Axelrod wouldn't specifically say the campaign will go after her on these issues, he listed them as areas where Obama could appeal to blue-collar voters.

He said he doesn't think Obama has an insurmountable problem in appealing to working-class voters.

"I don't submit to the notion that we have a flaw there that plagues us," Axelrod said. "I think it's a question of her being well-known."

On the matter of personal style, advisers say Obama isn't planning on changing his—even though he has abandoned the tie-free, open-collar look in recent weeks.

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[PlatyPius 5]

"In California, for example, Clinton dominated among voters whose families had incomes of less than $50,000, picking up 6 out of 10 of their votes. Among California voters who lacked a college degree, Clinton dominated by about the same margin.

Obama did considerably better among Californians in families with incomes of about $50,000 or more, tying Clinton.

Meanwhile, in one recent national poll, Obama won college-educated voters by more than 20 percentage points. And in Connecticut, where Obama won by a small margin, he dominated among those with college degrees, beating Clinton by 17 percentage points."

Wow, there's a glowing recommendation....

Hillary is preferred among the uneducated, while Obama is preferred by those with a college education.

I guess this explains why I prefer Obama over Hillary....I have functioning brain cells.

[rebeccajo 14]

Yeah, Hills doesn't want that 'Facebook vote', you know.

Why would anyone say they don't want the vote of youth?

[Trompe le Monde 1,107]

So those without college degrees lack "functioning brain cells"? People like plumbers and car mechanics? Numerous people on VJ?

[peejay 327]

So those without college degrees lack "functioning brain cells"? People like plumbers and car mechanics? Numerous people on VJ?

I think it is more of a jab at Hillary than at blue collar workers.

P.S.: I'm a fan of Hunter S. Thompson too.

[Trompe le Monde 1,107]

So those without college degrees lack "functioning brain cells"? People like plumbers and car mechanics? Numerous people on VJ?

I think it is more of a jab at Hillary than at blue collar workers.

P.S.: I'm a fan of Hunter S. Thompson too.

Mine was just a jab at Rocicante - I mean I have Masters, I have more brain cells that all ya'll (except PhD holders)

I wish Hunter was still with us to send faxes and make sense of this mess we're in!

Edited February 10, 2008 by rkl57

[PlatyPius 5]

So those without college degrees lack "functioning brain cells"? People like plumbers and car mechanics? Numerous people on VJ?

I was an auto mechanic for 11 years. Try a new angle to make my comment seem to be something it wasn't....

(and I don't have a college degree, either. I'm 3 semesters short)

[no name 1]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries...s/epolls/#CADEM

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries...s/epolls/#MADEM

All those uneducated Californians & Mass. people....

[PlatyPius 5]

Okay, so looking at the poll information, the supporters of Clinton are Hispanic, or older people who are afraid of blacks. Oh, and Christians who obviously believe all of their email and are afraid of Muslims.

I don't know the purpose of pointing to the polls as if to say "Ha! Here's your "uneducated", loser". Because that's exactly what you've done.... pointed out the various groups who tend to have less education than everyone else.

Bravo?

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries...s/epolls/#CADEM

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries...s/epolls/#MADEM

All those uneducated Californians & Mass. people....

Hill's campaign focus was described in the news as a 50/50 strategy: focus on the crowd over 50 and those making less than 50K. The sad thing is that those folks actually believe she gives a first ####### about them.